The Wall Street Journal and NBC just released two swing states polls by Marist:
Wisconsin - Obama 51-45 (prev. Obama 50-45, 9/16-18)
Iowa - Obama 51-43 (prev. Obama 50-42, 9/16-18)
Both among Likely Voters, taken October 15-17.
Two important pieces of Obama's firewall are holding up solidly, little changed from a month ago.
Also, in the Wisconsin Senate race, Democrat Tammy Baldwin leads: 49-45
http://firstread.nbcnews.com/...
After two presidential debates, Marist pollster Lee Miringoff observes, the races in Iowa and Wisconsin are back to where they were in September. “There were two debates, but you can’t tell it from the numbers.”
Full Iowa Report (PDF)
Full Wisconsin Report (PDF)
Breaking down the early vote
What especially seems to be helping Obama in Iowa is early voting. Thirty-four percent of likely voters in the poll say they have already cast their ballots, and the president is winning those people, 67 percent to 32 percent. Another 11 percent are planning to vote early, and he’s up among that group, 55 percent to 39 percent. But it’s reversed among Election Day voters: Romney is ahead, 54 percent to 39 percent.
In Wisconsin, just 15 percent say they have already voted or plan to vote early, and Obama leads among this group, 64 percent to 35 percent. Yet it’s even among Election Day voters, with Obama getting 48 percent and Romney at 47 percent.
Just like we've seen in Ohio, Obama is running up the score early once again. It makes you wonder how some pollsters justify Likely Voter screens that discard Obama votes, when Obama is dominating in Actual Voters.
Un-Skewing innoculation via NBC's Mark Murray:
Nate Silver's 538 Model Update:
Even against the bad Gallup data, President Obama's chances of winning rose from 65.7% to 70.4%. His Electoral Vote projection rose from 287.2 to 291.6.
Obama's chance of winning Iowa increased from 63% to 74%.
Obama's chance of winning Wisconsin increased from 75% to 81%.
