According to the talking heads, this November's election is going to be a "red wave". Why? Because historically the party that's out of power, does better in off year elections.
That narrative, of a red wave, should be evident in the polling, so let's take a look at what's out there. We're going to use the Senate (where we currently have a 50-50 tie, with VP Harris breaking the tie for the Democrats) because there is very little polling on individual House races.
If the media narrative is correct, we should see a Senate landscape where the polling shows that Republicans easily take control of the Senate after November's elections.
We'll use the Five Thirty Eight polling averages of each Senate race as of this morning.
The closest race is currently in Ohio. Ohio? Not PA or Georgia as the media talking heads are constantly are braying about? Yes Ohio! This Ohio seat is currently held by a Republican. So what does the poling say?
Why look at that. The DEMOCRAT, Tim Ryan is leading by a tiny 0.3 margin. If that holds, the Senate is now sitting at 51-49 for the Democrats.
The second closest race is in Nevada, where incumbent Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto is behind by 0.7. So again, let's say that holds, the Senate is back to a 50-50 tie, with VP Harris breaking the tie for the Democrats.
The third race on this list is North Carolina (haven't even heard about this one, right?), where Democratic candidate Cheri Beasley is behind by 1.6 points. This is currently a red seat. Let's give it to the Republican. The Senate is still tied at 50-50.
The forth closest Senate race? Wisconsin, where Democratic candidate Mandela Barnes is 2.9 points behind troubled Republican Senator Ron Johnson. If Johnson wins, that means the Senate remains tied at 50-50.
Moving on, race five is in Georgia where Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock is ahead of Herschel Walker by 3.9 points. Another hold, the score remains tied 50-50.
The race in Florida is sixth on our list (you didn't even know there was a race in Florida did you?). Democratic candidate Val Demings is 4.6 points behind current Republican Senator Marco Rubio. For our purposes, let's give the seat to Rubio. And the Senate remains tied!
The seventh closest Senate race in the country is in PA (finally) where Joh Fetterman currently holds a 5.7 point lead over Dr. Oz. But wait! Remember, a Republican currently holds this seat. If we give this seat to Fetterman, as we have done for every candidate that is currently leading, that makes the score Democrats 51, Republicans 49.
We're past the seven closest Senate races and the DEMOCRATS have picked up a seat. This hardly looks like a "red wave", does it?
Eighth on the list is Arizona, where incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Kelly is ahead by 6.3 points. That stays in Democratic hands and the score remains 51-49.
For a nice round number, let's do 10.
The ninth closest race is interesting in that no Democrat is running. The race is in Utah, where Republican Senator Mike Lee is facing a strong and surprising challenge from Independent Even McMullin, who currently trails Lee by about 6. There is a dearth of high quality polls here and surprisingly the most recent poll has McMullin up BY SIX! But in keeping consistent, let's give the race to Lee, that keeps our score 51-49.
The tenth closest race is in Indiana. It's barely been polled, but the current Republican Senator Young, is up by a little over 6 points. Our score remains 51-49 in favor of the Democrats.
From this point we start moving into the realm of unrealistic, although there was a solid poll out of Iowa, by an A+ rated pollster that had the challenger in Iowa, within the poll's margin of error.
So what's the moral of this story? This sure as hell doesn't look like a red wave election in the Senate. And while structurally, the House does have a higher chance of flipping control than does the Senate, currently based on Five Thirty Eight averages of the House generic ballot polling, the DEMOCRATS currently hold a lead of under one point.
What I have given you to this point, is simply numbers. Here's a little bit of editorial.
All of these numbers are based on assumptions of who is going to turnout to vote. Since the Dobbs decision was handed down in June EVERY special election has tipped DRAMATICLLY in favor of the Democrats. They haven't WON every election, but they vastly overperformed the polling.
I'm going back to the poll I mentioned earlier out of Iowa, showing a very close Senate race. This pollster has been highly accurate and if this is any indication of the composition of the electorate, it could be as much as FIVE POINTS more pro-Democrat than is currently being estimated.
Go back up and look at the Senate races that are within five points, add five points to the Democratic candidate in each of those top ten races and where do we sit? With a 56-44 Democratic Senate.
