Though Hillary Clinton supporters often complain about Open Primaries, believing that allowing non-Democratic affiliated voters to vote in Democratic primaries favors Bernie Sanders, the truth is that Hillary has won 10 out of first 13 Open Primaries. Granted, 7 of these wins were in Southern “Red” states, where People of Color dominate Democratic ranks. But she also won the Open primaries in Ohio, Illinois(Pledged Delegate split 50/50) and Missouri. The 3 Open primaries Sanders has won were Vermont, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Phaxs r such phunny tings… And one should never let them get in the way of a good narrative.
The next Democratic primary is in New York on April 19th. Not only is New York a Closed primary, it may be the the most Closed of all primaries. For instance, take a registered NY voter either affiliated with any party other than Democratic, or even unaffiliated (i.e., Independent). If said voter wanted to vote in this year’s Democratic NY primary, they had to register as a Democrat on or before October 19, 2015. That’s 193 days before the NY primary. Contrast this with New Jersey, where such a voter had until 55 days prior to the NJ primary to switch their affiliation, except if they were unaffiliated — then they have up to, and including, primary election day to change their party affiliation to vote in the primary. I say that’s 1 for NJ.
Some Democratic officials believe that it’s wise to keep “outsiders”, especially Republicans and other conservatives, from voting in their primaries. They are concerned that such “outsiders” could game the Democratic primary and help select a Democratic presidential nominee who would be a weak general election (GE) candidate — thereby ensuring a Republican win in November. Yet, historically, even when the Republican nominee has been finalized while the Democratic nominee is still being determined, there is no proof that Republicans have gamed the Democratic primaries. Independents, however, are a different issue. As this block of voters can determine who wins the GE, having them vote in the primaries can give a party a heads-up as to which of their presidential candidates stands the better chance of winning the GE in November — the ultimate Open election.
Obama won both the 2008 Democratic primary and 2008 GE based on the support of Independent voters. Hillary won the majority of registered Democrats in the primaries in 2008, so Independents were crucial to Obama becoming the Democratic presidential nominee. Obama won 55% of Independents in defeating McCain, which allowed him to amass a huge popular vote margin in the GE. But as Independents in this year’s Democratic primaries lean towards Sanders, Clinton supporters have rejoiced when Independents are excluded from Democratic primaries. I guess they’ll be even happier if Independents just stay home come November. After all, there are more registered Democrats than Republicans in the U.S. of A, so who needs Independents anyway… except Obama, and he’s not running.
Have you notice that you never hear Republicans complain about open primaries? Instead, they brag about how many Independents and Democratic crossovers vote in Republican primaries. No doubt this stems from the rise of the so-called Reagan Democrat:
traditionally Democratic voter in the United States, referring especially to white working-class Northerners or Midwesterners who defected from their party to support Republican President Ronald Reagan in either or both the 1980 and 1984 elections
The thing about these Reagan Democrats is that in closed primary states, such as NY, they cannot vote in the Republican primary; therefore, they’ll either skip voting in the primary or they… what? Who do you think a Regan Democrat will vote for in a Democratic primary? Do you think that they will vote with the best interest of the Democratic party in mind, or do you think they might vote instead as a disruptive element? Lets take the current state of the Republican and Democratic primaries in NY as an example of how a closed primary is no insurance against a party having its primary gamed.
Of the three remaining Republican presidential candidates, I would venture that front-runner Trump would be the candidate who would attract the most Reagan Democrats. Additionally, the current Democratic front-runner’s abysmal favorability with White men (the prototypical Reagan Democrats) helps to create an environment in which it would actually be advantageous to have Reagan Democrats vote in the Republican primary for 2 main reasons:
- The fact that Trump is the weakest GE Republican candidate means Reagan Democrats voting for him in the Republican primary is like Democrats zen-gaming the Republican primary; but
- If Reagan Democrats do vote in the Democratic primary, they will definitely NOT vote for Clinton, so this, for Clinton, will be like the Republicans zen-gaming the Democratic primary — even though Sanders is NOT necessarily the weakest Democratic GE candidate. It’s just that Sanders is not the Democratic establishment candidate, so every vote he gets is a vote against the Democratic status quo.
However, for Democrats to vote in a Republican primary requires that primary to be Open. But an Open primary would allow Independents to vote in the Democratic primaries — and we can’t have that, right! Because, just like in 2008, most Democratic primary voters who are real Democrats vote for Hillary, and we can’t let the Independents hijack the primaries again. See how that worked out for Democrats in 2008!
Funny that it is Hillary’s supporters who most want closed primaries, even though Hillary has performed just fine in Open primaries to date. Right, because it’s not about Republicans gaming the Democratic primary that concerns them. Instead, it’s all about those pesky Independents that the Clinton supporters fear, and loath, and who must be denied access to Democratic primaries; otherwise, OMG, Bernie could win!
If Democrats just want to exclude Republicans from voting in their primaries, then they could use a Semi-Open model (wherein all but Republicans can participate) or even a Semi-Closed model (wherein only Democrats and Unaffiliated voters can participate). Of the 57 total Democratic presidential primaries and caucuses, only 24 are Closed, while 20 are Open, 3 are Semi-Open, and 10 are Semi-Closed. IOW, Independents can vote in 33 of the 57 Democratic presidential primaries and caucuses, so why all the fear of Independents from Clinton supporters? Isn’t a little competition a good thang — or am I just being too testosterone-fueled?
Of the remaining 20 Democratic presidential contests, 11 are Closed, 5 are Semi-Closed and 4 are Open. So, Clinton supporters, Independents will be able to vote in 9 of the remaining 20, including the primaries in delegate-rich New Jersey(126) and California(475). Fear not, perhaps Hillary will have cinched before June 7th. Perhaps. Then again, perhaps not.
How the Reagan Democrats vote in the remaining 11 Closed Democratic primaries can have the same effect on Clinton’s chances of winning each of them as allowing Independents to participate (see Main Reason 2, above). Of course, if Hillary had already cinched the nomination by now, then it would be doubtful if Reagan Democrats would even be motivated to vote in Closed Democratic primaries. But she hasn’t cinched, and the relevance of the NY Democratic primary — for both Democrats and Republicans — has injected new energy into the 2016 primaries. When Reagan Democrats show-up to vote for Trump, and find out they can only vote in the Democratic primary do you think that they’ll just turn around and go home? If you’re a Clinton supporter, that’s what you had better hope they do.
This newly energized primary season also has voters in the surrounding delegate-rich states of New Jersey and Pennsylvania(189, Closed) getting jacked for their primaries. This increased attention will effect other nearby states — Connecticut(Closed), Rhode Island(Semi-Closed), Maryland(Closed), Delaware(Closed), West Virginia(Semi-Closed) and Kentucky(Closed). Oregon(Closed) begins mailing out their primary ballots in 2 weeks. Perhaps for the first time since 1968, California’s Semi-Closed June primary may actually determine the Democratic nominee. There’s a lot of delegates in those Closed primaries, delegates that Reagan Democrats can give to Sanders — if they wanted to game the Democratic party from the inside. It’s like locking yourself in a room with a rabid dog because you fear there may be a hungry bear outside. Me? I’ll take my chances out in the open.
The question for all those Clinton supporters who want only Closed primaries is this — Do Democrats really have no need for Independent votes in the GE? After all, Obama won the GE in 2012 with just 45% of Independent voters, and with Trump on the Republican ballot, there’s no way Independents will not vote Democratic in the GE, right? They’ll have no choice but to vote Democratic in the GE if Trump, or even Cruz, is on the ballot, right? If Independents vote their best interest they’ll vote Democratic in the GE, even if the Democratic establishment disdained their participation in the primaries, right?
Then again, perhaps you simply do not care if Independents get pissed if they’re excluded from the Democratic primaries. Perhaps you feel that it’s not their party to begin with, so why invite them. That they should have registered Democratic if they wanted to vote in the Democratic primaries… So fuck em!
Because you’re either with us, or… ..or you can just stay home come November?
Yea, that’s the ticket… the ticket to hell.