Waiting patiently for Bernie to do the right thing.

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Sunday May 22, 2016 · 1:25 PM PDT

2016/05/22 · 13:25

Hillary listening in Iowa. — Sometimes it takes time to do the right thing.

These two tweets tell it all. If Bernie does endorse strongly, there will be a big jump. If he doesn’t endorse, or gives a week endorsement, then she’ll get the increase over a longer period of time.

Clinton winning despite Sanders holdouts in the GE. If Sanders endorses strongly, her poll #s will jump big. https://t.co/6CCqk1vQVi
— Benchmark Politics (@benchmarkpol) May 22, 2016

Great breakdown by the NBC/WSJ poll here (Clinton +3 overall). Lots of Sanders holdouts from Clinton right now pic.twitter.com/hohXAyoR96
— Harry Enten (@ForecasterEnten) May 22, 2016

Trump is going to shoot himself in the foot so many times, he’ll have to use a 40 foot container to send all those holy shoes to the Vatican.

What's all this evil math about?

gakke

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Sunday March 06, 2016 · 9:39 AM PST

2016/03/06 · 09:39

I know that to many math is evil, but I love it, even though it is not nice to my preferred candidate. In a reality based forum everyone should have the facts. Statistical probabilities are not facts, but they can be reliable indicators of what is most likely to happen.

Normally my models produce a most likely outcome of primary events. The following table is a deviation, as it is based on what the models calculate to be the best likely outcome for Bernie over the next 9 events. I hope he over performs. A lot.

March 6 - 15th
State/Ter	Pledged	Sanders	Clinton
Maine	25	18	7
Michigan	130	52	78
Mississippi	36	10	26
N. Marianas	3	3	3
Florida	214	80	134
Illinois	156	56	100
Missouri	71	41	30
North Carolina	107	47	60
Ohio	143	62	81

gakke

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Sunday August 23, 2015 · 6:12 AM PDT

2015/08/23 · 06:12

So, if you are one of those that are feelin' the bern, don't get your hopes up. This is a couple of statistic nerds condescendingly explaining what they think are reality based numbers, to an emotionally motivated crowd.

This is how Bernie Sanders can win -chat starts out with an acknowledgement of criticism from Bernie fans.

It starts with:

We try to say something nice about #feelthebern’s quest for the Democratic nomination.

And end with:

hjenten-heynaw (Harry Enten)l: OK, the Bernie people have gotten to me. The Clinton emails seem slightly more likely to take down Clinton than they did a few weeks ago, so I’m going to double Sanders’s chances to 2 percent.
natesilver: I’m at 5 percent.

gakke

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday June 01, 2015 · 12:57 PM PDT

2015/06/01 · 12:57

no image description available — Bernie's Team

All of those suffering from Chronic Hillary Outrage Syndrome know that Clintons are not to be trusted. They are tainted and involved in scandals. They are neo-libruls and in the pocket of the Banksters. They kill people. The list goes on and on.

All politicians pander to voters. The GOP clown car is in trouble having to pander to their base. But Hillary is, with out a doubt, in a class for herself. She panders to people's basest instincts, totally without a twinge of shame. I have proof of how she manipulated The Great Orange Satan himself!

Here is a hint:

Bernie's Team

Follow me over the fauve dog hair fluff. Read More

What are the '16 Presidential odds? (May 2015)

gakke

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Sunday May 10, 2015 · 1:09 PM PDT

2015/05/10 · 13:09

Warning! Use of statistics and pie(and other charts) ahead!

Hillary PACman still eating them all

Last month in my first odds diary I explained a little about how odds work, and why it's just all about percentages. I looked at Winning Party percentages and Gender of the Winner. This week we'll look at odds for the Presidential Election from June 2012 to May 2014, and from June 2014 to May 2015.

Once again, the data is no more than an informed guess, formulated to get rubes to waste their money.

More subjective musings under the orange dog hair fluff.

gakke

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Monday April 13, 2015 · 2:13 PM PDT

2015/04/13 · 14:13

Hillary PACman eats the others.

Warning! Use of statistics and pie(charts) ahead!

I like statistics and graphs. During Obama's election campaigns I had a blast. I'd start here at DKos, then on to TPM polltracker, Pollster.com, 538, Princeton Election Consortium, Votamatic ... but I wasn't addicted. I could have stopped anytime. And then it stopped. I got bored and missed the daily fun. No 538's statistics or Votamatic's dynamic Bayesian forecasting model, nothing. Even historical models build on metrics like change in GDP, Presidential approval data, party approval, etc. Metrics that are not relevant until we get closer to the election.

So then, what's available?

What was available is odds from online bookmaking websites. Is the data a reliable indication of the 2016 presidential result? No, not at all. The data is an indication of how professional odds makers earn money off of rubes by turning a percent chance into odds, and getting the rubes to waste their money chasing the elusive "big score".

More subjective musings under the orange dog hair fluff.

gakke

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Tuesday July 15, 2014 · 4:08 PM PDT

2014/07/15 · 16:08

I'll begin with the conclusion to save the Hilhaters some time.

and Dkos is a reality based website dedicated to electing Democratic candidates. When reality deals a Webb or Testor, we don't get on their case because they are not progressive enough. That doesn't mean that we do not criticize Democrats, or even other progressives. It's one of our favorite things to do, just not as fun as mocking the Republicans or even better the Teapubs.

So - to those Hilhaters out there, if you can not accept that reality has lined up behind Hillary as the Democratic candidate, then you are much better off finding some other website to spew your hate. If all you have is hatred, negativity and personal animosity towards Hillary - you're just a troll.

I know that Kos told you to go fuck yourselves. That was very rude. He's usually one of the first to suggest that instead of kvetching - get politically active. You can start by sidewalk consoling ammo-sexuals. Just sneak up from behind and throw firecrackers at their feet. I'm sure they will thank you.

gakke

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Thursday February 06, 2014 · 1:33 PM PST

2014/02/06 · 13:33

Let's play the numbers and predicting the future game.

According to my exhaustive non-calculations that I learned from Republican Repetitive Syndrome School, I predict that in 2024 many American workers will be able to afford to take an extra 2 weeks unpaid vacation. 4% less hours worked in a year is the same as 5 million jobs. Even though with this unpaid vacation, the US worker will then have an average of 20 vacation days a year. 20 vacation days a year is the current minimum mandated paid yearly vacation of European Union workers. Mandated vacation in the US - a big fat 0.

Statistics and graphs at cepr's No-Vacation Nation - Update 2013

gakke

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Friday July 22, 2011 · 3:04 PM PDT

2011/07/22 · 15:04

Police arrested a Norwegian man for the killing of at least 10 people attending the Labor Party's summer camp, a yearly event attended by about 600.

An Oslo paper VG has a story reporting that this same man, dressed as a police man, was seen at the scene of the bombing of the government buildings.

The latest news is that they have found an unexploded bomb on the island where the man was arrested. Police are not giving any details at this time, but they did say that they were having a discussion with the suspect, and that he has not said anything about being a member of a group.

gakke

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Monday August 31, 2009 · 2:31 PM PDT

2009/08/31 · 14:31

We need more humor and intelligence in the health care reform debate. To people that don't read blogs, the debate is controlled by the Mighty Republican Wurlitzer. Not only is the information full of scary lies, but even worse, it's boring. The only fun stuff on TV is The Daily Show and The Colbert Report. It's not easy finding serious reality based news delivered by somebody other than Rachel, Keith and Bill Moyers, but it's the simple humorous messages that I miss.

If there is one thing that separates progressive reality based people from the regressive freepen' truth benders (liars), it's humor.

gakke

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Saturday June 28, 2008 · 12:10 PM PDT

2008/06/28 · 12:10

Sitting here and waiting for what ever the new Swift Boaters come up with has got me thinking, - what would be an easy way to counter attack? I read how the GOP is desperately trying to re-brand itself, and I think of silly images, like putting lipstick on an elephant. National polls confirm that the GOP brand is way out of touch with the American people, so why not just attack the GOP Brand?

The GOP is Bush, Cheney, Foley, Larry Craig, Ted Stevens, Jack Abramoff, the Bug Man (hammered), Irving Lewis Libby Jr, Bob Ney, Duke Cunningham, and every member of congress that supported the government of the last 7½ years.

gakke

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Thursday May 17, 2007 · 1:47 AM PDT

2007/05/17 · 01:47

and the county is heading towards a collapse.

That is just two of the many depressing conclusions of a briefing paper (pdf) by Gareth Stansfield from the UK foreign policy think tank Chatham House. Not anything new for anyone who reads the Dailykos or Jaun Cole, but it is nicely packaged into British English, easily digestible for any of the main stream media. What is interesting is his description of the different groupings in Iraq, and the social breakdown, Iraq’s neighbors, and the failing of the Bushies policies.

I could use this in a high school class to give a concise overview of the actors in this conflict, and analysis of the current situation.

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Waiting patiently for Bernie to do the right thing.

What's all this evil math about?

538 pwns #feelthebern - try and say something nice about Bernie's chances and fail.

The real reason Kos supports Hillary

What are the '16 Presidential odds? (May 2015)

What are the odds? (101)

History, Hilbots, and Hilhaters

In 2024 there will be at least 7.5 million more jobs due to the ACA

Are Oslo's bombing and shootings right wing terrorism?

Republicans are Deatheaters

Attack the Republican brand - removing the lipstik from the elephant

Not ’a’ civil war in Iraq, but many civil wars