Welcome to State of the Union Tuesday
I doubt many of us here will be watching, but I’m sure we’ll all be eager to hear Stacy Abrams give the rebuttal!
I’ll start by saying that Sarah Huckabee Sanders said something that I agree with! She said that God answered prayers and put Trump in the White House.
I agree completely. Three hundred million prayers went up asking for God to do something about the Republicans and she said “I have heard your cries. I will smite the Republicans for the foreseeable future by putting Trump in the White House.”
I thought I’d start today by reviewing the promises of last year. I got the idea from yesterday’s NY Times Before Trump’s State of the Union, a Look at How Last Year’s Promises Fared
Immigration:
“It is time to reform these outdated immigration rules, and finally bring our immigration system into the 21st century. These four pillars represent a down-the-middle compromise, and one that will create a safe, modern and lawful immigration system. For over 30 years, Washington has tried and failed to solve this problem. This Congress can be the one that finally makes it happen.”
Status: unfulfilled
The “four pillars” were four ways to keep people out. 1 — Pathway to citizenship for Dreamers (Not). 2 — A wall on the southern border. 3 — Ending the visa lottery. 4 — Limiting family-based immigration.
The good news here is that none of that happened. In fact, of the three immigration bills voted on by the Senate, the one that most closely followed those pillars failed the bigliest. Nobody is buying the President’s BS.
Poll: Immigration is top concern, and Democrats are winning
Nearly eight-in-10 cited immigration as a top issue to them in the midterm congressional election and 21 percent call it the “country's most important problem,” according to Gallup.
But while that is likely driven by the president’s focus on the issue since his 2016 election and the recent government shutdown over it, the public is decidedly against Trump’s efforts to build the wall and crackdown on the illegal entry of immigrants into the U.S.
According to Gallup:
- 60 percent oppose significant new construction on border walls.
- 81 percent support a path to citizenship for immigrants in the U.S. illegally.
- 61 percent oppose deporting all immigrants in the U.S. illegally back to their home country.
- 75 percent favor hiring more Border Patrol agents.
And it’s going to get worse for the Republicans
Stabenow predicts border deal could survive a presidential veto
[Michigan Sen. Debbie] Stabenow praised congressional Democrats and Republicans on the conference committee for working to avoid another partial government shutdown, and said in an interview on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” that she’s confident any deal that emerges will be “smart and make sense.”
“And then I think it’s Mitch McConnell's job to make sure we have a vote on that,” the Democratic senator said, adding that “I believe we will have enough votes probably to overturn a veto if the president decided he was going to veto it. I think there's strong bipartisan support for doing the right thing to keep us safe. Which is different than what the president's talking about.”
Manufacturing
“Chrysler is moving a major plant from Mexico to Michigan; Toyota and Mazda are opening up a plant in Alabama. Soon, plants will be opening up all over the country.”
Status: unfulfilled
Chrysler never moved that plant and no new plants opened. But General Motors did say it was going to idle five factories.
Also, his tariff shenanigans has cooled a lot of interest that foreign companies had in moving development here.
So what’s the good news?
Some manufacturing interest still remains in spite of all that. (Thanks, Obama!)
Employment in the auto industry has increased slightly under Mr. Trump’s watch, to about one million in November 2018 from 955,800 in January 2017. There is interest in growing manufacturing interest in the automotive industry, but the unsettled state of tariffs is causing them to hold off. That means when there is a sane person in the White House (a Democrat), investors should be interested in us again.
The Reshoring Initiative is an effort to bring manufacturing jobs home to America. They maintain a database of companies that have brought manufacturing business back to America or have stopped from moving overseas. Since the beginning of the initiative in 2010, their database now includes over 2000 businesses that have reshored their manufacturing, had overseas investment in local manufacturing or have refrained from off-shoring.
trade
“We will work to fix bad trade deals and negotiate new ones. And we will protect American workers and American intellectual property, through strong enforcement of our trade rules.”
Status: fulfilled
I think the NY Times is letting him win one for appearances sake.
There was a negotiation of a bi-lateral trade deal with South Korea with modest results, and Nafta was renegotiated, the results of which is to be determined.
As you will doubtless hear Trump say tonight, manufacturing jobs are coming back to America. They would be coming back a lot faster if we didn’t have a moron in the White House, but you take what good news you find.
Manufacturing sees strong job growth despite Trump's trade wars
The manufacturing sector showed strong hiring through November in the jobs report released Friday [Nov 3], suggesting that the Trump administration's tariffs are not having a strong negative effect on the economy, at least not so far.
The administration's tariffs have increased the prices of the key raw materials of steel and aluminum, putting a squeeze on many companies, but the strength of the economy, with unemployment at a very low 3.7 percent overall, appears to have mitigated those effects.
health care
“People who are terminally ill should not have to go from country to country to seek a cure — I want to give them a chance right here at home. It is time for the Congress to give these wonderful Americans the ‘right to try.’”
Status: fulfilled
This was a promise to allow desperate people to try experimental and untested treatments, opening the door for scam treatments and clinics, so of course that one passed.
So what is the good news?
Democrats are running on a Medicare-for-All platform.
Kamela Harris and Elizabeth Warren have made Medicare-for-All a platform of their campaign.
Elizabeth Warren, at a Bloomberg interview said "There are multiple bills on the floor in the United States Senate. I've signed onto Medicare for All. I've signed on to another one that gives an option for buying in to Medicaid. There are different ways we can get there. But the key has to be always keep the center of the bulls-eye in mind. And that is affordable health care for every American."
Not all Democrats are on board, however. When a similar question came to Sen. Cory Booker on Friday, he went the opposite direction, noting that "even countries that have vast access to publicly offered healthcare still have private healthcare, so no."
The extra-good news in this is that the Overton Window is moving. It won’t be long before candidates such as Cory Booker, will have to be on board if they want to continue to be viable as candidates.
Drug price reduction
“I have directed my administration to make fixing the injustice of high drug prices one of our top priorities. Prices will come down.”
Status: partially fulfilled
NY Times is full of it.
AP investigation: Drug prices going up despite Trump promise
The best you can say is that prices went up “only” 5.2% for the months of Jan-July instead of 2017’s 8 percent for the same period.infrastructure
We have Elizabeth Warren’s plan to reduce drug costs. This plan, put together by Senator Warren and Representative Jan Schakowsky (D-IL). This bill would, among other things, allow the federal government to take over the manufacture of “orphan” drugs where there aren’t enough people who need the drug to make it viable for commercial production, or where the drug is too expensive for patients to afford it and World Health Organization classifies it as an “essential medicine”.
infrastructure
“Tonight, I am calling on the Congress to produce a bill that generates at least $1.5 trillion for the new infrastructure investment we need.”
Status: unfulfilled
In the Republican Congress, no infrastructure bills were ever brought up for a vote.
What’s the good news? I give you the House Committee on Infrastructure and Transportation headed by Peter DeFazio (D-OR) is beginning holding hearings this week on the state of our infrastructure and what needs to be done.
The Cost of Doing Nothing: Why Investing in Our Nation’s Infrastructure Cannot Wait
When I took over as Chairman of the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, I promised that I would work to build bipartisan agreement for common sense solutions to address the major issues facing our aging, 20th century infrastructure. It is only fitting that the first full committee hearing will examine the current state of our roads, bridges, transit systems, ports, and airports, and what will happen if we do not immediately begin to address the massive backlog of critical needs.
accountability in government
“I call on the Congress to empower every cabinet secretary with the authority to reward good workers — and to remove federal employees who undermine the public trust or fail the American people.”
Status: unfulfilled
As his idea of government accountability is to be able to fire federal employees more easily, it was a good thing that all of his executive orders to do this were shot down in court.
The good news?
But also, House Democrats prepare for week of blockbuster hearings into Trump
This week the Trump administration learns what Democratic oversight looks like.
After a 35-day government shutdown that consumed congressional leaders, Democrats hold a series of hearings this week that define a new normal in Washington: the Trump administration is in the hot seat.
The long list of hearings is just a sampling of the scrutiny the Trump administration will face over the next two years, testing not just the President, but his Cabinet, policies and legacy.
The Military
“For this reason, I am asking the Congress to end the dangerous defense sequester and fully fund our great military.”
Status: Partially fulfilled
Apparently, the only thing wrong with the military is that we aren’t throwing enough money at it. As this promise was to delete the defense sequester that limits military funding, — well, the sequester is still in place but Congress is ignoring it and increasing funding anyway. With that in mind, the promise was only about the sequester, so maybe it was sort of fulfilled.
What’s the real good news?
The House Armed Services Committee is now focused on transparency with Congress. As Committee Chairman Adam Smith (D-WA) said in a letter to Acting Secretary of Defense Shanahan,
The Members of the Committee would have been extremely interested in discussing what the 3,500 troops going to the border in response to DHS’s latest request will be doing there. This is a violation of the executive branch’s obligation to be transparent with Congress, which oversees, authorizes, and funds its operations. It also raises questions about whether the Department thinks the policy of sending additional troops to the border is so unjustified that they cannot defend an increase in public.
In the Senate, Elizabeth Warren introduced a bill to stop US using nuclear weapons first. This is something we didn’t think we needed before, but now that we do, it’s a good thing we have good people like Elizabeth Warren keeping us safe.
foreign policy
“That is why, tonight, I am asking the Congress to pass legislation to help ensure American foreign-assistance dollars always serve American interests, and only go to America’s friends.”
Status: unfulfilled
Of course his “foreign policy” is to end all foreign aid to brown people and s-hole countries. You know, the ones who need it the most.
The good news?
Congress ignored Mr. Trump’s calls to drastically reduce foreign aid, instead approving budgets that included billions more than the president had requested, and made no significant changes to foreign aid policy.
Good news for lady tortoises
If you are a Chelonoidis hoodensis tortoise, well, the bad news is, you are endangered. But the good news is Diego is always ready to party.
Diego, a tortoise of the endangered Chelonoidis hoodensis subspecies from Española Island, has fathered about 800 young — 40 percent of the species.
The century-old, extremely sexually active giant hooded tortoise, has single-handedly brought his species back from the brink of extinction.
Fifty years ago, there were 14 members of Chelonoidis hoodensis, in Española, an island of the Galapagos Islands — 12 females and two males.
They did not even need the other guy. Since 1976, Diego has fathered more than 800 young — 2 of every 5 hooded tortoises in existence, according to genetic testing.
I don’t have a puzzle today, but I do have a game.
For everybody who is going to watch the SOTU tonight (not me), create your own Bingo card and show it in the comments. Bingo starts in this thread at 9 PM Eastern. You could win, um, a prize you create yourself! You deserve it for watching the whole speech. Wake me in time for Stacy Abrams.
It’s a good day, Gnusies! Enjoy it!