Congress failed to pass a bill addressing the border crisis. The House Republicans made a complete dog’s breakfast of it in fact and everyone went on vacation without resolving anything. Where does that leave President Obama? It leaves him with the Republicans right where he wants them.
Since the Senate passed comprehensive immigration reform in June last year, Obama has been waiting for the House to take up the bill for debate. It wasn't so much that he wanted them to pass the bill (he's a realist after all) but he did want them to debate it... in public... on the official record... in full view of the c-span cameras. Why? Because it would expose the schism in the Republican Party more starkly than any other issue: establishment GOP side with the Chamber of Commerce in wanting a pathway to citizenship while the tea party are fully behind Heritage Action's policy which is nothing short of xenophobic.
But they wouldn't budge. They talked about debating it. There was a glimmer of hope when Speaker John Boehner told a press conference, "Is immigration reform dead? Absolutely not" in November last year and reiterated in January that "immigration would get done this year". But it was short-lived. By February the excuse was "There's widespread doubt about whether this administration can be trusted to enforce our laws" and that was that. The shutters came down.
Since then Obama and Pelosi have tried various ways and means of cajoling House Republicans to take up the debate, including a procedural measure called the discharge petition. But still they wouldn't budge. Boehner was frustrated but knew what a powder keg it was and, in a classic avoidance tactic, Cantor omitted it from the Spring agenda.
However, the advent of the border crisis brought it back to the fore in a dramatic way. Coincidentally, House Republicans were also preparing a vote on a resolution to sue the President which in turn had reanimated and escalated reactionary talk of impeachment. (See Vyan's excellent diary about the "I-word") While Democrats largely saw all three unfolding events as dire, President Obama at last had exactly the conditions he needed to maneuver the Republicans towards an unmitigated debacle.
Obama prepared the set and props very carefully. In quick succession he moved from A: House Republicans are suing him for doing his job, to B: the border crisis must be addressed urgently, to C: emphasizing that it is the responsibility of the Legislative Branch to do so, to D: providing a bill to get the ball rolling because E: time is of the essence before Congress breaks for their Summer vacation.
Meanwhile, Time reported senior aide Dan Pfeiffer saying that the Speaker's lawsuit "opened the door to Republicans possibly considering impeachment at some in the future" followed four days later by White House press secretary Josh Earnest calling "repeatedly for Republicans to stop talking about impeaching President Barack Obama" and naming "Republican members of Congress who have spoken supportively of impeachment".
The supporting cast were unwitting volunteers – the Republican base. As nuketeacher braved the environs of RedState to report their reactions in RS Today: The Battle Over Impeachment, Sarah Palin, as is her wont, was taking every opportunity to add her impeachment spiel.
The stage was set. This time there was no escape for House Republicans though Boehner did attempt one last ditch effort to pass the ball back to the President. From his press release:
There are numerous steps the president can and should be taking right now, without the need for congressional action, to secure our borders and ensure these children are returned swiftly and safely to their countries.
Yes, nice try there, John, but the inherent hypocrisy in this statement was so glaringly obvious that even Congressional colleagues were moved to comment. Rep Tom Cole pointed it out in
this quote:
"Look, you can't say on the one hand that the president is overreaching by acting without legislative authority and direction and then refuse to give him legislative authority and direction in another area."
Boehner’s last gasp at evasive action was sabotaged not by tea partiers as might be expected but by the establishment faction; they were the ones who actually demanded that Boehner attempt to do his job and get a bill on the floor. It is mainstream Republicans who know that
"we couldn't pass anything" is going to be a tough sell on the stump back home.
Finally confronted with the need to get this done, they gave it their all. Pundits struggled to stay abreast of the craziness emanating from the House floor last Thursday. Here's Dana Milbank of the Washington Post, endeavoring to explain what happened:
All morning, GOP leaders had been predicting that they had sufficient Republican votes to pass Boehner's border bill. But then conservatives, under pressure from Cruz and far-right interest groups, began to go squishy, and the new leader, Kevin McCarthy, announced that he was pulling the border bill from the floor and that members could depart early for their five-week summer break.
What followed was as close as Congress gets to one of those fistfights in the Taiwanese parliament. Mainstream Republicans besieged Boehner and McCarthy on the House floor, noisily demanding that they do something about the border crisis before going on holiday.
Boos and jeers rained down on the new leader. The speaker pro tempore, Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.), banged the gavel violently for order. Some lawmakers had to be called back from National Airport.
Paul Kane and Ed O’Keefe described the scene as they saw it:
The retreat sparked panic among GOP moderates, who have felt marginalized and bullied during years of warfare with a small but influential tea party caucus. In a remarkable scene Thursday afternoon, angry rank-and-file members rushed to the House floor to surround Boehner and his newly installed majority leader, Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), waving their arms and jabbing their fingers as they demanded a vote.
After an emergency meeting in the Capitol basement, GOP leaders emerged with vows to try again Friday — though with no clear idea what they might be voting on.
"You can't go home!" Rep. Blake Farenthold (R-Tex.) shouted in an interview after the closed-door huddle. He suggested such a move would send a terrible message to Obama: "You're right, we're a do-nothing Congress."
This was exactly the position Obama had been trying for months to lure them into – and there was even better to come. While Cruz's part in the fiasco was predictable (updated diary coming soon), new majority leader Kevin McCarthy's next move was less so. In keeping with one of the deals he'd made with the tea party in order to secure his election to the leadership, he handed the border bill to Reps Steve King and Michele Bachmann to rewrite. With the exception of Rep Gohmert, you'd be hard pressed to find two more inept members of Congress in which to entrust such a critically important bill.
King and Bachmann were elated. A jubilant Bachmann told the press:
"We sat down in that room last night, HC 8, in the Capitol, and it went as smooth as silk. Steve laid it out and in less than two hours we worked it out," Bachmann said. "It was really a painless process. But it was the first time that I've seen leadership recognize, with respect and admiration, the work that Steve King did. Steve helped to completely gut this bill."
King said it "was like I ordered it off the menu". That would, of course, be Heritage Action's menu as articulated by Ted Cruz and his shadow on this occasion, Pete Sessions.
I can only imagine the President's absolute delight at this turn of events. Not only had simmering internal conflicts boiled over in public but they had passed a bill that alienated the Chamber of Commerce, the business sector including the agricultural industry in red states, and the entire US Hispanic population. As the Right Wing Watch article went on to explain, it was also untenable. In keeping with the theme of ineptitude, it was also too late. The Senate had packed up and gone home.
Obama warned Congress that if they failed to put a bill on his desk before breaking for the Summer, he would have no option but to take executive action. It helped his cause that Boehner had urged him to go ahead "without the need for congressional action" but only incidentally. Obama already knew what the outcome would be – given the Congressional Republicans' history during his tenure as President, it could not have been otherwise. Essentially, he's impelled them to force him to act unilaterally; they played right into his hands.
The next act in this comedy of GOP errors, will be President Obama's Executive Order to deal with the border crisis and ease the logjam in the immigration courts. When he does, expect there to be something in it for Hispanics nationwide to cheer. On the other hand, expect the Republican base to howl with rage.
Given that they're already in a frenzied lather from the mere speculation of such an Executive Order, imagine how they will react when it becomes a reality. Boehner thought suing the President would be red-enough meat for them but he's about to discover that's no longer the case. The demands for impeachment will become a rallying cry and what will those Republican Congressional candidates do when faced with an angry mob chanting "Impeach now!"? It’s hardly likely that "well let's just see how this lawsuit turns out" is going to placate them. If anything, it's likely to incense them more as they realize their party is thwarting them.
Rage by its very nature is irrational. Any argument about not having enough numbers in the Senate to win a trial will have no effect. They know impeachment is determined by the House and impeachment is what they want. The Senate is irrelevant to that fixation. When these Republican Congressional candidates finally realize this, they will have two options: either buckle under to the demands of their base, or defy them – you can be sure the media will be pressing them for a definitive answer.
It's the ultimate lose/lose situation. If they give in to their base, they energize Democratic and Independent voters, alienate their own moderate voters and, if Bill Clinton’s 1998 approval rating is any guide, send Obama's approval rocketing skywards. If they defy their base, they risk losing a sizable mass of unforgiving voters.
Democrats have everything to gain from this. By taking it all upon himself, Obama has minimized the risk to his party's candidates while providing them with the best opportunity to win as many seats as they can in the Midterms. Then it will be up to them individually.
As it stands now, the next move is Obama's – and he knows exactly how to play it.
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