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Delegates:PledgedSuperTotalNeeded
Obama 1,657.5 306.5 1,964 61
Clinton 1,500.5 278.5 1,779 246
Remaining 86 211 297
(2,025 delegates needed for victory)

The Endless Loop

Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:55:00 PM PDT

So General Petraeus claims that there may be a reduction of U.S. forces in Iraq this year:

WASHINGTON - Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, said Thursday that a decision on Iraq troop levels is likely by September, and that he is likely to recommend a further reduction after a 45-day pause in withdrawals that begins in mid-July. [...]

"My sense is that I will be able to make a recommendation at that time for some further reductions," Petraeus told a Senate panel considering his nomination to lead Central Command, responsible for U.S. military operations in the Middle East. "I don't want to imply that that means" a particular brigade or major combat formation, he said.

So, why should Congress or the American people believe him, since he made a similar claim last year, and since we currently have more troops in Iraq today than we did back then?

August 15, 2007:

BAGHDAD — The top American commander in Iraq said Wednesday he was preparing recommendations on troop reductions before he returns to Washington next month for a report to Congress and understood that the U.S. footprint in Iraq would have to be "a good bit smaller" by next summer.

"We know that the surge has to come to an end, there's no question about that. I think everyone understands that by about a year or so from now we've got to be a good bit smaller than we are right now."

And no one at today's confirmation hearing asked about what General Petraeus would say to John McCain about this promise of troop reductions.  McCain, after all, is not only adamantly opposed to any troop reduction, he even admitted on his website that he wants to increase our troops presence in Iraq:

Bolster Troops on the Ground

A greater military commitment now is necessary if we are to achieve long-term success in Iraq. John McCain agrees with retired Army General Jack Keane that there are simply not enough American forces in Iraq. More troops are necessary to clear and hold insurgent strongholds; to provide security for rebuilding local institutions and economies; to halt sectarian violence in Baghdad and disarm Sunni and Shia militias; to dismantle al Qaeda; to train the Iraqi Army; and to embed American personnel in Iraqi police units. Accomplishing each of these goals will require more troops and is a crucial prerequisite for needed economic and political development in the country. America's ultimate strategy is to give Iraqis the capabilities to govern and secure their own country.

McCain launched a new websitethis week, aimed at general election voters.  He's deleted the above paragraph now.

But now matter how hard he tries to scrub away his wildly unpopular and reckless position, the stale policy and empty promises of progress remain.  No matter what General Petraeus says today to make the McCain-Bush Iraq policy more palatable to the American people, no matter what temporary and cosmetic "drawdown" is promised to make them forget about this mess, they have long ago rejected the President's hamster-wheel foreign policy.  And when the myth of McCain the Moderate is shattered and his reckless policies for Iraq are exposed, Americans should readily reject John McCain as well.

Midday open thread

Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:45:00 PM PDT

  • The Ted Kennedy stuff has been tough. I vividly remember the day in 1992 that doctors told us, after my 50-year-old father suffered a seizure, that he had a brain tumor. A few days later, after the first biopsy, they confirmed it was a glioblastoma multiforme, with a life expectancy of about a year, tops.

    I parked myself in a medical library in Houston for a couple of days and read all the literature. I lost hope almost immediately. Not my father. He ended up lasting four months and fought that tumor every second he had left.

    I know exactly what the Kennedy family is going through right now, and it makes me sick to my stomach.

  • As I've been saying for years, Bush doesn't speak Spanish. His brother Jeb speaks perfect Spanish. George does not. Yet that myth inexplicably persists.
  • Speaking of myths, the Jewish vote remains one of the most loyal Democratic constituencies, and that hasn't changed in previous years, no matter how much Republicans and the media claim otherwise.
  • Beware smear emails. It's the Swiftboat of 2008.
  • Racist opposition to Obama isn't about racism, it's about:

    [...] blood equity, heritage and commitment to hard-won American values. And roots.

    Yup. Nothing racist about that.

  • Rush Limbaugh explains why Obama won.

    LIMBAUGH: You know, the feminazis forgot one thing. Well, one of the objectives of the feminazis over the last 20, 25 years has been to dominate the public education system so as to remove the competitive nature of boys. You know, there's a crisis of young man-boy education in the schools. And they did this on purpose, to eliminate male competition in the work force. This is part of feminazi grand plan.

    They forgot affirmative action for black guys. And because of that, every bit of their plan has gone up in smoke now, because they -- if -- they had to come out in favor of affirmative action for black guys, and that's -- see, this is one of the things that really irritates the women. And there are women all over this country fit to be tied -- trust me on this. And it's -- one of the things is affirmative action is exactly -- it's, you know, liberals eventually are going to be devoured by their own policies. And it has happened here. Because Barack Obama is an affirmative action candidate [...]

    So, it's just -- they just forgot that one thing: affirmative action for black guys. And if they had remembered to oppose that, then they wouldn't face the situation they face today.

  • Gallup:

    The only major demographic group still supporting Clinton to the tune of 51% or more is women aged 50 and older.

  • Why do George Bush, John McCain, and so many other Republicans oppose Webb's GI Bill that offers full tuition scholarships to vets? Because they need warm bodies.

    [A]dministration officials fear that simply making the GI Bill more generous for service members could lead to an exodus of troops leaving the military to attend college [...]

    "Now, this is not indentured servitude," [Defense Department spokesman Geoff] Morrell added. "We’re not trying to, you know, keep people here forever. But we are trying to ... create a system in which troops see the benefit of making a career out of the military, out of being the beneficiaries of the training and the experience and the education that we provide them."

    And the only way for them to see the benefits of making a career out of the military is to deny them the means to attend college? Wow, that's offensive. And from my own personal experience, most soldiers are either the career types, or the non-career types. Illinois paid my college tuition as a vet, but that's not the reason I got out of the Army. In fact, the educational opportunities were a factor in me enlisting in the Army, since I didn't come from a family that could afford to help me with tuition. So you increase educational opportunities, it should help recruitment, which as we all know, hasn't been all that great in recent years.

  • URGENT:  If you're a citizen of Michigan, call the office of Democratic Speaker of the House Andy Dillon and tell him NOT to bring to a vote a bill outlawing late term abortions.  No, you didn't misread that, it's the Democratic Speaker of the House willing to push forward an anti-choice bill.  Call Andy Dillon at 517-373-0857 and tell him not to bring SB 776 for a vote.  Learn more about SB 776 at ProgressMichigan. --DHinMI

Clinton's hail mary gambit

Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:19:52 PM PDT

Yesterday I mocked Clinton's assertion that her battle is somehow akin to the civil rights struggle (as well as suffrage, Zimbabwe, and Florida 2000.

Today, it doesn't seem so funny. John Cole notes the disgusting

co-option of the Civil Rights era after weeks of transparent appeals that whites won’t vote for the black guy which JUST SO COINCIDENTALLY took form during the Appalachian primaries (which conveniently occurred after North Carolina, the last state with a large black population) [...]

It really is disgusting, and yet another nail in the coffin of what used to be Bill and Hillary's positive legacy to the party. She is now being openly mocked across the media and political spectrum. But I'm sure mentioning that is "sexist", and that everyone criticizing the joke her campaign has become is sexist as well.

Steve Benen:

I’m 35, and have been following politics for quite a while, and I’ve never been so disappointed with a politician I’ve admired and respected. Yesterday’s tactics weren’t just wrong, they were offensive. For that matter, they seem to be part of a deliberate strategy to tear Democrats apart and ensure a defeat in November.

For several weeks, I’ve appreciated the fact that Clinton considers herself the superior candidate, and has kept her campaign going in the hopes, from her perspective, of saving the party from itself. But after yesterday, it’s become impossible for me to consider Clinton’s intentions honorable. Her conduct is not that of a leader [...]

Instead of trying to help bring the party together — Election Day is 24 weeks away — Clinton went to Florida to argue that if Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee, his nomination will be illegitimate. And if the DNC plays by the rules Clinton used to support, it’s guilty of vote-suppression — comparable to slavery, Jim Crow, and Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe.

TBogg:

My contempt for her has reached the Lieberman line.

There is one thing that I truly believe in and that is fairness. You may not like the rules, but once you agree to them, you play by them. Hillary Clinton can't even manage to do someting as simple as that.

Josh Marshall:

[Clinton] is embarking on a gambit that is uncertain in its result and simply breathtaking in its cynicism.

Clinton HAD de-escalated last week, but now she is going nuclear. Why? This is a theory:

Time magazine’s Karen Tumulty reports:

What will Clinton’s terms of surrender turn out to be? Her husband, for one, seems to have a pretty clear idea what he thinks she should get as a consolation prize. In Bill Clinton’s view, she has earned nothing short of an offer to be Obama’s running mate, according to some who are close to the former President. Bill “is pushing real hard for this to happen,” says a friend.

The Field can now confirm, based on multiple sources, something that both campaigns publicly deny: that Senator Clinton has directly told Senator Obama that she wants to be his vice presidential nominee, and that Senator Obama politely but straightforwardly and irrevocably said “no.” Obama is going to pick his own running mate based on his own criteria and vetting process.

In matters like these, I won't put much stock on anyone's secret sources -- whether it's Time or the always excellent Al Giordano-- since there's so much bullshit, misinformation, and rumors floating around that it would be impossible for anyone to sift between fact and fiction. There are probably only a handful of people who would know whether this is true, and they're not publicly dishing.

But as a theory, Clinton's over-the-top outbursts yesterday really would fit the pattern of someone scorned of a prize they felt they had rightfully earned. In the stages of grief, we may have gone from "bargaining" back to "anger".

SUSA: Obama wins Virginia

Thu May 22, 2008 at 12:05:01 PM PDT

SurveyUSA. 5/18-22. Likely voters. MoE 4.1% (4/11-13 results)

McCain (R) 42 (52)
Obama (D) 49 (44)

That's a 15-point swing in five weeks. You're starting to see the Obama victory bounce, even if Clinton won't finally admit she lost.

And that's with SUSA underpolling the black vote -- 18 percent, when in 2004 blacks were 21 percent of the Virginia general election voter pool. Who thinks African American turnout will be lower in 2008?

Also note that according to SUSA, women vote for Obama at a 54-38 clip, and Latinos (4 percent of the survey, 3 percent in 2004) select Obama at a healthy 64-32 clip.

Clinton wasn't polled. I wonder if there's bias in polls that poll both candidates, especially if the Clinton matchup is listed first.

That last SUSA poll included both matchups, and this one didn't. It could partly explain the huge 15-point swing.

Consolidating support in California

Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:45:00 AM PDT

This is a harbinger of what will happen across the nation soon after Clinton throws in the towel.

A new poll released today in California finds political momentum shifting dramatically toward Barack Obama—and away from both Hillary Clinton and John McCain—in the nation's most populous state. According to a survey conducted over the past 10 days by the Public Policy Institute of California, 59 percent of likely voters here now have a "favorable" impression of Democrat Obama, while a majority view both of the other candidates unfavorably. In a state whose Democratic primary Clinton won in February, 51 percent of voters now say they have an unfavorable opinion of her; 53 percent of voters feel the same way about Republican McCain.

Obama, meanwhile, seems to be making strides across nearly every constituency. If the general election were held today, 54 percent of Californians say they would vote for him, compared with 37 percent for McCain. That gap has widened by 8 points since March. Obama enjoys the support of more than 80 percent of Democrats here, along with over half (55 percent) of independents. He leads McCain among men and women and is viewed favorably by nearly 70 percent of Latinos—a powerful political group, experts note, not just in California but in several other western states, including Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada.

Those Latino number are big, and back up what Gallup is finding, that Obama's support among Latinos is surging. And yes, he even wins those "hard working, working class" whites:

While there has been an epidemic of hand-wringing among Democratic political analysts over Obama's inability to win over low-income white voters in states like Kentucky and West Virginia, where Clinton has dominated recent primaries, California seems to be a different story. Obama leads McCain by a double-digit margin here among likely voters, no matter what their incomes. He enjoys a 55-to-35 percent lead among those who make less than $40,000 a year, including whites; a 55-to-36 percent lead among those who make between $40,000 and $80,000; and a 53-to-37 percent lead among those who make $80,000 or more.

California, like most of the country, isn't Appalachia. You can see the full poll here (PDF).

McCain has made some noise about contesting California, but that's just b.s. to get big-money California Republicans to open up their wallets. McCain doesn't have the appeal, nor the money, to make even a cursory effort for California's 54 EVs.

Not emotional enough

Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:19:20 AM PDT

Ruth Marcus:

More important than helping candidates figure out how to talk about gender, Clinton's candidacy has dispensed with damaging myths about women's capacity to compete in presidential politics. Not tough enough? If anything, Clinton came off as too tough. Too emotional? Clinton teared up in New Hampshire -- and, confounding male pundits, this display of vulnerability helped her win. Too fluffy? Clinton, perhaps to her detriment, out-wonked the competition.

Me, May 7, 2006:

In person, Clinton is one of the warmest politicians I've ever met, but her advisers have stripped what personality she has, hiding it from the public. Some of that may be a product of her team's legendary paranoia, somewhat understandable given the knives out for her. But what remains is a heartless, passionless machine [...]

So no, this "male pundit" was not surprised when a little glimpse into her real personality was well received by voters.

We've learned in recent months that it was Penn who decided to strip that personality from Clinton. When it accidentally poked through in New Hampshire, people loved it. And then she went back to being the same heartless, passionless machine -- yet another mistake in a long line of mistakes.

It was an ironic fear of sexism that simply (and maybe surprisingly) didn't materialize. Rather than let Hillary be Hillary, and risk looking too much like a woman (i.e. "weak" and "emotional"), they stripped her of the very qualities that may have very well clinched her the nomination. In fact, Team Clinton overcompensated in the other direction -- the imperative that likely decided not just her disastrous Iraq War vote, and not just her refusal to apologize for it, but also her inexplicably stupid Iran vote.

At a time when Obama mocks McCain's foreign policy as "I won’t talk to that guy. And I won’t talk to that guy. And I won’t talk to that guy," and refreshingly looks past the Villagers' demands for a Big Penis Stick, militaristic, and aggressive "with us or against us" foreign policy, Clinton is still stuck threatening to nuke Iran and making the same old tired threats

That, right there, was probably the difference this primary election.

FISA Fight: Accountability

Thu May 22, 2008 at 11:00:00 AM PDT

Blue America PAC is branching out from just helping to elect the good guys with this ad, targetting Blue Dog Democrat Chris Carney for his support of giving the Bush administration and the telcos a pass for illegally spying on Americans.

Spying on Americans illegally IS un-American. Good for Blue America for pointing that out. Carney was one of five Blue Dogs who broke with the majority back in February when the House passed the RESTORE Act, an amnesty-free approach to FISA modernization. Carney promised to be a great pick-up for us in 2006, but we didn't help get him elected to be sold out in his first term, as Stoller points out at Open Left.

State parties DID influence blogger selection

Thu May 22, 2008 at 10:19:35 AM PDT

Yesterday, the DNCC's Aaron Myers wrote on Daily Kos:

We didn't hand off this project to state party officials, as was rumored.  The DNCC published a list of requirements, we read applications, and we looked at lots of blogs.

I responded:

The rumor wasn't that it was "handed off", but that some state parties exercised veto power over the selections. I'd like to see Aaron deny that was the case, since the evidence to that effect is steadily mounting.

Well, here's what appears to have been the case:

As it turns out, I did talk to Matt Jerzyk of the credentialed blog Rhode Island Future, and he had a conversation with state party executive director Tim Grilo about the blog credentialing process.  He asked about the process of credentialing bloggers.  Grilo said that the DNCC called and asked for the party's input about each blog that applied, and the Rhode Island Democratic Party was told directly that their input would be valued and would be involved in the decision-making process about who to credential.  Grilo said that the party was not given veto power but he did get the strong sense that their input would be a valuable part of the credentialing process.

So the rumor that state parties had "veto power" appears wrong, but state parties did get a strong say in the selection.

Most states parties did the right thing and made sure that worthy blogs got selected to sit with their delegations on the convention floor. But state parties in several states including New Jersey and New York apparently decided otherwise.

Finally, I've now heard that Aaron Myers, who heads this operation at the DNCC, is a tech guy. The DNCC made the mistake -- much rarer this days -- to have a tech guy handle blogs because, you know, blogs are computer thingies. And however brilliant Aaron may be with his technology duties (and everyone I've talked to sing his praises in that regard), he has been ill equipped in dealing with the blogging question. Stoller says Aaron told him last year that he didn't have time to read blogs, which would seem to be a requirement for someone having to put together a blogger credentialling process.

I suspect that this isn't Aaron's fault. He likely got thrown into this because his boss(es) thought, "bloggers are computer things, so we'll have our techie handle it". These sorts of things happen, however unfortunate they may be.

The smart operations, and again, most of them these days are, use communications/media people to deal with bloggers because that's what we are -- media. I'm hopeful that saner heads will prevail in Denver, and this little dustup will be fixed soon enough so we can focus on better targets.

A Victory, for Now

Thu May 22, 2008 at 09:42:39 AM PDT

Webb prevails.

WASHINGTON - Senate Republicans have broken with President Bush to help Democrats add help for veterans and the unemployed to a bill paying for another year of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars.

The 75-22 vote also adds billions of dollars in other domestic funds such as heating subsidies for the poor and money for fighting wildfires to the $165 billion for the military operations overseas.

This is veto bait, and a good number of the Republicans "breaking" with the President likely did so for the political cover of having supported a popular bill that helps veterans. But never underestimate the ability of Republicans to stand by Mr. 28%. He'll veto it because it's excessive spending, and many of those Republicans will just have to regretfully agree that we can't affort it.

But for now, they're on the record, and they'll have to expose themselves as the hypocrites they are.

BTW, McCain the Maverick apparently decided that showing up for this vote just wasn't all that important. According to his campaign Web site, he decided to spend the day in California.

Senate Voting on Webb Bill

Thu May 22, 2008 at 08:47:26 AM PDT

With Memorial Day recess approaching, it's particularly appropriate that the Senate is voting today on Sen. Webb's GI bill, guaranteeing returning Iraq war veterans the equivalent of a four-year education at a public university. It would cost $52 billion over the next decade. (That decade of educational benefits, incidentally, costs as much as just two and a half months of continuing the Iraq war.)

Voting will begin soon. The entire supplemental is in two parts, the first containing the House version with the Webb GI bill and a number of domestic initiatives, including unemployment insurance. The second contains the Iraq and Afghanistan funding as well as Iraq policy initiatives, including time tables, restrictions on permanent bases, directives on detainee treatment, etc.

If the first amendment, including the domestic initiatives fails to get 60 votes, the Senate will immediately take up Sen. Webb's GI bill as a stand alone provision. This is where our Senators can put their proverbial money where their mouths our and show the nation--and our men and women serving in Iraq and Afghanistan--whether they really support the troops. If the amendment fails this morning, it will be withdrawn for the time being.

Then they take up the second amendment. If that one doesn't get 60 votes to concur, the Iraq policy (such as time tables, torture related provisions) will get stripped out and there will be a vote on clean "supplemental."  Right now this looks like it could be very close. And the Republicans might be worried that they might not be able to get 60 votes to get a Iraq war funding bill out.

Now might be a good time to give your senators a call and ask them to support Webb's GI bill, and the full second amendment. We're going to be stuck funding this damn war for the remainder of this year. The least our representatives can do is reward the men and women who've fought it, and to direct how that money can be spent.

Update: Voting on the first amendment now. There are a lot of Republicans, and not just those worried about reelection (though mostly) supporting it. This amendment contains domestic initiatives including the Webb bill.

Update 2: Wow. Passed 75-22. The Webb bill moves forward. They did their jobs! Veto that, Georgie Boy!

Update 3: They are now voting on the second amendment that provides both funding for Iraq and Afghanistan and contains war policy provisions.

Update 4: Anybody see McCain on the floor? Did the Maverick duck out of yet another vote?

Update 5: Second amendment fails, 34-63. The Republicans voted against it because of the time tables, etc. The Dems voted against it because it's more war funding. Onto the stand alone funding.

(P.S. How much fun is it to see Tester up there in that chair?)

Update 6: The "clean" funding for Iraq bill just passed, 70-26.

Memorial Day and the Veterans of Future Wars

Thu May 22, 2008 at 08:04:59 AM PDT

Although Waterloo, N.Y., is its official birthplace, many locales – North and South – claim they were the originators of the practice of decorating en masse the graves of dead Civil War soldiers. Hard to know how long it took 19th Century politicians to latch onto this Greek-inspired ritual that we now call Memorial Day as a platform for jingoism. Likewise, hard to know what Marc Thiessen will write up for Mister Bush to include in his eighth and final Memorial Day address on Monday.

No doubt something that will spur the sycophants to say: Wasn't that inspiring? Didn't that bring a tear to your eye?

Mourning the dead is a crucial, healing ritual. Praising those who have given their lives deserves a day of remembrance, not just for their families, but for us all. But even though the 140-year-old proclamation of "Decoration Day" called upon the President to lead us in our commemoration, who will be able to listen without bitterness next week to the words of  Mister Bush urging us to remember - or misremember - yesterday's wars as a means of getting us to support today's and tomorrow's? While trying to reflect on those who died, who among us will be able to stomach that man's unctuous "patriotism"?

Like all the best propaganda, Mister Bush’s past seven Memorial Day speeches stirred together truth and lies:

2001 :

It is not in our nature to seek out wars and conflicts.

2002:

Words can only go so far in capturing the grief and sense of loss for the families of those who died in all our wars.

2003:

The farms and small towns and city streets of this land have always produced free citizens who assume the discipline and duty of military life. And time after time, they have proven that the moral force of democracy is mightier than the will and cunning of any tyrant.

2004:

Through our history, America has gone to war reluctantly, because we have known the costs of war.

2005:

The war on terror has brought great costs. For those who have lost loved ones in Afghanistan and Iraq, today is a day of last letters and fresh tears. Because of the sacrifices of our men and women in uniform, two terror regimes are gone forever, freedom is on the march, and America is more secure.

2006:

In this place where valor sleeps, we are reminded why America has always gone to war reluctantly, because we know the costs of war.

2007:

Those who serve are not fatalists or cynics. They know that one day this war will end -- as all wars do. Our duty is to ensure that its outcome justifies the sacrifices made by those who fought and died in it. From their deaths must come a world where the cruel dreams of tyrants and terrorists are frustrated and foiled -- where our nation is more secure from attack, and where the gift of liberty is secured for millions who have never known it.

Has your headache started yet?

More than ever in this sixth year of the war in Iraq, it will be impossible to forget that also in several previous wars - the Mexican War, the Indian Wars, the Spanish-American-Philippines War, the Vietnam War – dead soldiers were put in the ground by criminals inhabiting the highest levels of the U.S. government. Politicians unworthy to touch the Stars and Stripes, much less wrap themselves in it to bolster their claim of having the best interests of America’s freedom and security at heart.

As in the past few years, amid the mourners and graves at Arlington and elsewhere across the nation on Monday, many of the liars who got us into Iraq will be stinking up the commemoration. Men and women who ignored or distorted intelligence assessments while denigrating and trampling the few courageous officials who objected will stain the honor of service in the name of liberty. They will reference the very American ideals that they have done their best to obliterate since September 11, 2001. Their crocodile tears will flow.

Someday, perhaps, instead of excluding groups like Veterans for Peace from Memorial Day events, our commemorations will be dedicated to ensuring that there are no veterans of future wars and that peace will no longer be seen as "too political."

+ + +

Here's a list of U.S. military fatalities for the past 234 years. Exact numbers for each war are widely disputed. No central accounting of fatalities has been made for dozens of interventions in Central America, the Caribbean and elsewhere. This is only the tally of Americans in uniform, not civilians caught up in those wars.

The Revolutionary War (1775-1783): Combat - 4,435/Other (disease, etc.) - 6,188
War of 1812 (-1815): Combat - 2,260
Indian Wars  (1785-1915): Combat - several thousand (exact numbers intensely disputed)
Mexican War  (1846-1848): Combat - 1,733/Other - 11,550
Civil War: Combat - 214,938/Other - 283,394
  [Civil War statistics are highly disputed - some claim as many as 750,000 soldiers died on both sides.]
Spanish-American-Philippines War  (1898-1902): Combat - 385/Other - 2,061
World War I (1917-1918): Combat - 53,402/Other - 63,114
World War II (1941-1945): Combat - 291,577/Other - 113,842
Interventions (1798-2008): Unknown – a few thousand
Korean War (1950-1953): Combat - 33,686/Other - 2,830
Vietnam War (1964-1975): Combat - 47,410/Other - 10,788
Gulf War (1990-1991): Combat - 148/Other - 235
Iraq War (2003-200?): Combat/Other – 4079

The Only Thing We Have To Fear Is, Er... Unfearfulness

Thu May 22, 2008 at 06:54:59 AM PDT

There can be no doubt, now. The election results in MS-01 and other places are clear: the Republicans are in a world of trouble -- even in their own strongholds.

This can only mean that the usual avenues of Republican victory -- finding some imagined threat to the flag and apple pie, and goading all sufficiently gullible GOP believers into a state of panic over it -- are becoming stale. This is remarkable, as the list of threats to America grows with every election cycle: if current trends continue, by the year 2080 the GOP will have launched advertisements blaming the problems of America on every individual American citizen, by name.

Going down the current list of scapegoats to blame for destroying the fabric of America, it is truly surprising how ineffective the Republican message has been:

Muslims: Republicans sought to stoke fear of Muslims here and abroad by conflating them all with terrorists. This did not work: unlike the President of the United States, a passel of hard-right evangelical leaders, and the entire conservative foreign policy apparatus, most Americans were able to tell the difference between the two groups.

Immigrants: If terrorists are bad, and Muslims are bad because they might be terrorists, what other people might be bad? That's right -- other brown people. After years of blaming immigrants for taking American jobs (which is preposterous -- if anything, given the number of American factories relocating overseas in order to find whatever world locations have the cheapest labor, most lax environmental standards, and most lenient governments, it is those nasty foreigners who are not immigrating that are taking our jobs), the Republicans discovered a new reason to hate the same immigrants they always hated: because terrorists might sneak in too. But only on the southern border, not the Canadian border, because everybody knows terrorists hate pine trees.

Flag burners: This one was left on a mere simmer, in recent years. It turns out that there are so many actual problems to deal with, the public just isn't that into solving imaginary ones. And after watching news coverage from the Middle East these past decades, burning a flag is just over. Retro, even.

Homosexuals: While still fashionable in some circles to fear homosexuals and the devastation they might wreak upon the American landscape, this particular fear has been dampened by decades of homosexuals not actually posing a threat. At the same time, recent years have shown both clergymen and congressmen to be far more of a sexual threat to Americans, thus leading most of the public to realize that if they had to live next to a gay couple or a Republican congressman, they'd be nuts not to chose the gay couple.

Polar Bears: You thought global warming was a problem? No! The problem is the damn polar bears, who trick humans into having sympathy for them for, you know, that whole no-longer-having-a-habitat mess. This gambit, too, failed, because while both Republicans and polar bears are heartless killing machines, the bears are still easier to love.


So none of that's working? That's a damn shame, if you're a Republican. If the usual scapegoating isn't working, there's not much else the modern Republican machine has left. For decades now, it has been the practice in every election to offer up random demographic groups or other suddenly discovered terrors in order to deflect public attention from actual issues or actual policy failures. If they don't have that... well, you can already see the panic in Republican eyes.

Fear not, Republicans, I shall help! Here are my own suggestions for things that have not yet been scapegoated, but probably should be. I am sure you will be able to organize a sufficiently fear-based, sanctimoniously outraged national campaign around any of them.

Puppies: Puppies are cute, and as anyone who has ever spent time in the dating scene can tell you, cuteness is a frequent characteristic of things that later turn out to be batshit scary. I have lived at various points in my life around puppies, and they are suspicious as hell. I know of almost nothing else that can intentionally crap all over the living room rug and still be welcome in the house: all across the nation, puppies get away with this on a regular basis. Puppies are also terrible conversationalists, and are probably non-Christian.

The Reaper: We have all heard the admonition: don't fear the reaper. This is hippie-promoted nonsense; the reaper is damn scary, and any decent American should be terrified of him. For starters, he carries a giant sickle around with him. For seconders, he kills you. Even if you're willing to forgive the obsession with farm equipment, or the oddness of wearing an oversized black robe year-round, the "killing you" part should be sufficient reason to be terrified. The Republican Party should launch a campaign to make sure all Americans properly fear the reaper, and at the very least should promise to put him at the top of the terrorist watch list. Remember, guns don't kill people; the reaper does, after you've been riddled with bullets and your bloodcurdling screams have summoned him so that he can cut your soul out of your body with a large blade intended for harvesting grain.

The Metric System: We thought we had won the war against the metric system: we were wrong. My own grade-school daughter came home one day and proudly announced her height not only in inches, but in centimeters: yes, though American adults successfully fought off the menace of universally consistent units of measure decades ago, schools are still teaching this elitist "alternative theory" of measurement to our children. I am quite certain that the Republican Party could get quite a lot of mileage -- or kilometerage, as unpatriotic Europhiles might say -- in promising to protect our children from this dangerous mathematical bilingualism. Our English system of measurement is much better than a European system of measurement, in spite of the morass of inexplicable unit conversion ratios. We are quite happy with the morass, thank you very much: our willingness to not be bound by mere powers of ten shows our resolve in the face of terror.

Mothers Who Let Their Babies Grow Up To Be Cowboys: If Republicans are willing to vote against mothers on Mother's Day as mere procedural lark, they should be willing to take on a more substantial menace. Mothers who encourage cowboyism as a career choice do a disservice to their children, as there is very little need for cowboys in today's service-based economy. While Democrats would seek cowboy retraining, Republicans should be able to pin the problem squarely at the source -- poor family values. Every child who dreams of becoming a cowboy is another child who will not dream about becoming something of better use to society, like an investment banker, or energy trader, or closeted homosexual Congressman.

Actual Goats: Have you ever met an actual, real-life goat? There is a reason the term "scapegoat" still remains relevant today: whenever something on a farm is not as is should be, the odds are nine in ten that the blasted goat was responsible. A rope chewed in half? The goat. A tree stripped of bark? The goat. Canvas chewed, leather straps eaten down to the buckles, hoofprint-shaped dents all over the hood of the car? The goat. Did someone sneak onto your computer one evening and purchase a full-sized ocean kayak, which was then delivered to your door a week later, every member of your family denying that they were the one who placed the order? Blame the goat. Goats can stand a towering one hundred centimeters high at the shoulder. Their hooves and tongues are not just prehensile, but posthensile and extrahensile: for any moment in time when you are not looking directly at them, they have opposable thumbs. At least twelve of them. Stop blaming scapegoats for America's problems, and take a cue from rural Americans nationwide: blame the actual goats.

Flag-Burning Polar Bears: The old scapegoats not working, and no new ones are doing the trick? Well, get creative. Combine old, well-loved scapegoats to make new, updated ones. Perhaps polar bears are burning our flags. Perhaps illegal immigrants are sneaking across the border in order to turn our children gay. Perhaps Muslims want to raise your taxes to pay for polar bear abortions -- how would America feel then?


There is nothing more Republican than the ability to take any problem, botch the solution spectacularly, and blame the resulting mess on some group that has little to nothing to do with it. Recognizing that all Republican failures are not actual failures, but cruel sabotage by normal everyday Americans, or by sneaky ethnic people, or clever but evil animals, or devious environmental or biological processes: now that is one of the highest forms of patriotism.

Cheers and Jeers: Thursday

Thu May 22, 2008 at 05:51:33 AM PDT

From the GREAT STATE OF MAINE...

Hello, Kossacks! Here's an important and totally spontaneous "blog post" about my good friend, Senator John McCain:

I like John McCain.
[Ding! Congratulations, you've earned 10 Action Center Points!]
He is a maverick.
[Ding! Congratulations, you've earned 20 Action Center Points!]
He has white hair and wears a lapel pin.
[Ding! Congratulations, you've earned 20 Action Center Points!]
He is a veteran.
[Ding! Congratulations, you've earned 18 Action Center Points!]
He is married to a woman.
[Ding! Congratulations, you've earned 50 Action Center Points!]

John McCain loves corporate lobbyists.
[Bzzt! You lose 20 Action Center Points.]
John McCain doesn’t know the difference between Sunnis and Shia.
[Bzzt! You lose 35 Action Center Points.]
He also said that staying in Iraq for 100 years is fine with him.
[Bzzt! You lose 50 Action Center Points.]
His wife will never release her tax returns because she must be hiding something that would hurt McCain's chance of being president.
[Bzzt! You lose 65 Action Center Points.]
He once called his wife the "C-word."
[Bzzt! You lose 75 Action Center Points.]
He begged for the endorsement of a pastor who said Hitler was fulfilling God's will by chasing the Jews out of Europe.
[Bzzt! You lose 120 Action Center Points.]
And he only got 72 percent of the vote in Kentucky Tuesday
[Bzzt! You lose 110 Action Center Points.]
And he admits he's ignorant about the economy.
[Bzzt! You lose 400 Action Center Points.]
And he likes President Bush a whole lot.
[Bzzt! You lose 500 Action Center Points.]
But he saves his kisses for Joe Lieberman.
[Bzzt! You lose 2,000 Action Center Points.]

Oh, and he really likes cake!
[We're cancelling your Action Center membership at johnmccain.com, you liberal poopy prick troll hater spoiler ass person.]

Damn. Now I'll never earn enough points to get my own Straight Talk Express. Astroturfing is overrated.

Cheers and Jeers starts in There's Moreville... [Swoosh!!] RIGHTNOW! [Gong!!]

Poll

How much are you jonesin' to see the new Indiana Jones movie, which opens today?

10%920 votes
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29%2472 votes
20%1734 votes

| 8448 votes | Vote | Results

Open Thread

Thu May 22, 2008 at 05:15:01 AM PDT

Turncoat former Democratic vice-presidential nominees:

1. Joe Lieberman
2. Geraldine Ferraro

Thank heavens John Edwards is still sane!

Open Thread for Night Owls & Early Birds

Wed May 21, 2008 at 09:59:38 PM PDT

Ross Douthat at The Atlantic writes:

Redeeming Dubya - The national memory often confuses hubris with greatness. That’s good news for George W. Bush.

The idea that history might rehabilitate George W. Bush seems too ludicrous to be seriously entertained. His approval ratings have been so low for so long, it’s hard to remember that he was ever popular. The Iraq War, his signal endeavor, has lasted for more years than America’s involvement in the Second World War and seems likely to last longer; a fragile truce in a wrecked, misgoverned country is the best the next president can hope for.

Even many of the president’s ideological allies consider him a failure—either a false conservative who betrayed the Reagan legacy, or a blunderer who got the big decisions right but couldn’t follow through. His liberal foes, whose bill of indictments has swollen to the size of Gravity’s Rainbow, while away the hours until January 2009 by arguing over just how terrible a president he’s been. The worst since Nixon? Since Hoover? Since James Buchanan?

If Bush himself were confronted with this discouraging analysis, though, it’s easy to imagine his retort—delivered, no doubt, with a flash of that famous smirk: So you’re saying I’ve got nowhere to go but up.

Before you laugh, consider that nearly every presidential reputation, however tarnished, eventually finds someone willing to defend it. At the very least, some right-wing writers and historians will rise to defend Bush’s legacy. But something more than partisan apologetics will be needed for his presidency to be remembered as something other than a failure. Ronald Reagan’s status became secure only after left-of-center historians began to praise him; likewise, Harry Truman’s reputation has risen from the Bush-esque depths of his disastrous second term in part because Republicans as well as Democrats have come to claim him as a hero.

Personally, I wouldn't care if he did get upgraded as long as he heard the news in a prison cell. But I'm given to fantasy.

The Overnight News Digest is posted.

Poll

Who do you assign the title of Worst President Ever?

1%267 votes
1%251 votes
0%138 votes
0%71 votes
0%19 votes
0%23 votes
1%308 votes
0%74 votes
4%747 votes
0%23 votes
1%308 votes
84%15522 votes
0%91 votes
0%67 votes
2%442 votes

| 18351 votes | Vote | Results

Open Thread and Diary Rescue

Wed May 21, 2008 at 08:18:07 PM PDT

This evening's Rescue Rangers are Louisiana 1976, Avila, BentLiberal, dopper0189, YatPundit, and jlms qkw, with watercarrier4diogenes at the Editor's desk.

Tonight's diaries cover a variety of interesting issues not covered by the 'traditional media' (tm Kos) with the kind of research, perspective and analysis we see here every day.

jotter has High Impact Diaries - May 20, 2008.

BeninSC has Top Comments - I Have a Secret!

Enjoy and please promote your own favorite diaries in this open thread (even if you're the author! Here's where that's actually appreciated). And, of course, since it's an open thread, PLAY NICE, OK? 8^)

Lieberman Goes The Full Zell

Wed May 21, 2008 at 07:04:57 PM PDT

I have to hand it to Joe Lieberman -- seldom has a man been willing to so publicly void his intellectual bowels in newsprint or to such impressive effect. Lieberman's Wall Street Journal ode to a fictional history of his fictionalized past party goes a long way towards explaining his current psychology; like McCain and the other Republican foreign policy uberhawks whose companionship he now finds solace in, he is not content with merely asserting that dissenting opinions are wrong, but must declare them appeasers and collaborators. Retroactively, if necessary.

Towards this end, Lieberman is willing to redraw history into a Republican talking point, but he does it so badly -- so crudely -- that is comes across as the flashback-riddled rantings of a political Willie Loman. He sees visions of peaceniks and hippies in his head at night; they dance around his bed, preventing the proper dispensation of justice. He sees visions of a modern Democratic Party cowing to "activists", but cannot name any. He paints a history of a Democratic Party plagued by foreign policy weakness, yet recites a litany of Democratic foreign policy strengths to do so.

I will quote at length, only because the devolution of Lieberman's capacity for logic needs to be shown at length to be appreciated.

Beginning in the 1940s, the Democratic Party was forced to confront two of the most dangerous enemies our nation has ever faced: Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union. In response, Democrats under Roosevelt, Truman and Kennedy forged and conducted a foreign policy that was principled, internationalist, strong and successful.

This was the Democratic Party that I grew up in – a party that was unhesitatingly and proudly pro-American, a party that was unafraid to make moral judgments about the world beyond our borders. It was a party that understood that either the American people stood united with free nations and freedom fighters against the forces of totalitarianism, or that we would fall divided. [...]

This worldview began to come apart in the late 1960s, around the war in Vietnam. In its place, a very different view of the world took root in the Democratic Party. Rather than seeing the Cold War as an ideological contest between the free nations of the West and the repressive regimes of the communist world, this rival political philosophy saw America as the aggressor – a morally bankrupt, imperialist power whose militarism and "inordinate fear of communism" represented the real threat to world peace.

It argued that the Soviets and their allies were our enemies not because they were inspired by a totalitarian ideology fundamentally hostile to our way of life, or because they nursed ambitions of global conquest. Rather, the Soviets were our enemy because we had provoked them, because we threatened them, and because we failed to sit down and accord them the respect they deserved. In other words, the Cold War was mostly America's fault.

Lieberman recites a litany of strong foreign policies; then asserts they all collapsed, come Vietnam. But on what Liebermanesque planet did the Democratic Party -- or even substantial forces within the party -- believe the Soviets to have been the good guys of the Cold War? He offers no example, he merely asserts it. "It is argued", he says, but Lieberman and the imaginary 1960s-era hippies cavorting in his cortex are the only ones arguing it. Support for Vietnam is given as proxy for being sufficiently American; whether or not Vietnam was a good idea, or well executed, or resulted in anything but fiasco is entirely beside the point. A true American is willing to support a foreign policy fiasco of historic proportions; dissenters are simply weak.

That's it. That is the entire assertion. Democrats were powerful foreign policy figures throughout WW2 and the Cold War, but then Vietnam came along and some people didn't like it, therefore Democrats were weak.

Then, beginning in the 1980s, a new effort began on the part of some of us in the Democratic Party to reverse these developments, and reclaim our party's lost tradition of principle and strength in the world. Our band of so-called New Democrats was successful sooner than we imagined possible when, in 1992, Bill Clinton and Al Gore were elected. In the Balkans, for example, as President Clinton and his advisers slowly but surely came to recognize that American intervention, and only American intervention, could stop Slobodan Milosevic and his campaign of ethnic slaughter, Democratic attitudes about the use of military force in pursuit of our values and our security began to change.

This happy development continued into the 2000 campaign, when the Democratic candidate – Vice President Gore – championed a freedom-focused foreign policy, confident of America's moral responsibilities in the world, and unafraid to use our military power. He pledged to increase the defense budget by $50 billion more than his Republican opponent – and, to the dismay of the Democratic left, made sure that the party's platform endorsed a national missile defense.

What is impressive here is that Vietnam is given as the sole example of Democratic "appeasement" of enemies. Before then Democrats were strong, and after then Democrats were strong -- Joe gives plenty of examples for both periods -- and Democrats were only "weak" in for the years between because a few unkempt activists had the audacity to disagree with Joe "I am the voice of all Parties" Lieberman about the merits of Vietnam. It is a comical premise -- it is the kind of addled pseudohistory that the hawks of Vietnam have been obsessed with for forty years, on the Republican side; to see it from Lieberman makes me wonder if he caught the contagion from a senatorial toilet seat.

Lieberman does not mention Carter; presumably, he was weak too, for not carpet bombing Iran when he had the chance, or for engaging in a failed military action against Iran that was suspiciously narrow and tactical, instead of one that was overwhelming and bloody and patriotically escalatory. We can only presume Lieberman and McCain, if given the chance, would rectify that error.

Today, less than a decade later, the parties have completely switched positions. The reversal began, like so much else in our time, on September 11, 2001. The attack on America by Islamist terrorists shook President Bush from the foreign policy course he was on. He saw September 11 for what it was: a direct ideological and military attack on us and our way of life. If the Democratic Party had stayed where it was in 2000, America could have confronted the terrorists with unity and strength in the years after 9/11.

Instead a debate soon began within the Democratic Party about how to respond to Mr. Bush. I felt strongly that Democrats should embrace the basic framework the president had advanced for the war on terror as our own, because it was our own. But that was not the choice most Democratic leaders made. When total victory did not come quickly in Iraq, the old voices of partisanship and peace at any price saw an opportunity to reassert themselves. By considering centrism to be collaboration with the enemy – not bin Laden, but Mr. Bush – activists have successfully pulled the Democratic Party further to the left than it has been at any point in the last 20 years.

And there we get to the nub. America was united behind the President immediately after September 11th, near-universal in support for the actions in Afghanistan. But then some (embarrassingly small number of) Democrats took policy exception to Bush's expansion of post-9/11 action into an unrelated war at cross purposes to the first, under the premise that it would be counterproductive and would weaken efforts in Afghanistan and elsewhere in the world, thus playing directly into the hands of extremists seeking that larger war. For that insight, they are apparently leftists. The President bears no burden for shattering the post-9/11 unity of the nation or the post-9/11 international vigor against terrorism with his own badly planned, badly executed, badly premised Rumsfeldian clusterfuck of imagined opportunity for forced U.S. hegemony in the Muslim world; heavens, no. It is all the fault of a passel of hippies and the activists for daring to speak up.


In this, let me be clear, I believe Lieberman to be exposed as the intellectual equal of a worm-riddled, half-composted sack of shit, and am not sorry in the slightest for the comparison. For Lieberman to so willingly conflate any opposition to a war of occupation in Iraq to the appeasement of bin Laden -- essentially asserting as weak and cowardly all Americans who properly called out the ramifications of the Iraq fiasco for what they were, shows him to be a political charlatan, and a buffoon, and a McCarthyite hack besides. For not carrying on the fiction that Iraq has made us safer, he asserts us roundly to be fools or against our own country, so let the tired crank whine about our own language if he dares.

Far too many Democratic leaders have kowtowed to these opinions rather than challenging them. That unfortunately includes Barack Obama, who, contrary to his rhetorical invocations of bipartisan change, has not been willing to stand up to his party's left wing on a single significant national security or international economic issue in this campaign.

In this, Sen. Obama stands in stark contrast to John McCain, who has shown the political courage throughout his career to do what he thinks is right – regardless of its popularity in his party or outside it.

John also understands something else that too many Democrats seem to have become confused about lately – the difference between America's friends and America's enemies.

There are of course times when it makes sense to engage in tough diplomacy with hostile governments. Yet what Mr. Obama has proposed is not selective engagement, but a blanket policy of meeting personally as president, without preconditions, in his first year in office, with the leaders of the most vicious, anti-American regimes on the planet.

Mr. Obama has said that in proposing this, he is following in the footsteps of Reagan and JFK. But Kennedy never met with Castro, and Reagan never met with Khomeini. And can anyone imagine Presidents Kennedy or Reagan sitting down unconditionally with Ahmadinejad or Chavez? I certainly cannot.

While I cannot personally imagine a more maddening fate than to be constantly tormented by the fictional appeasers of Lieberman's war-addled head, I find this whole section to be nearly, but not quite, hilarious. Oh, to be Joe Lieberman, for whom all past events must be packed into the frame of willing militancy or be dismissed.

Reagan did not meet with Khomeini; he did, however, meet with Gorbachev. Are we to presume Reagan was, then, an unpatriotic coward? He is simultaneously credited by conservatives with superhuman powers in ending the Cold War, and recent evidence indicates he did not bomb them into submission -- what are we to make of this? Kennedy never sat down with Castro, but Nixon's talks with China are credited with opening up the communist country to both diplomacy and, eventually, capitalism. Was he too a traitor to his nation? If only Mr. Lieberman could tell us, but he cannot, because for Mr. Lieberman "strength" goes along with supporting his own foreign policy notions, and "weakness" consists of not supporting them, and all history that does not directly speak to his own imagined sense of strength and weakness is discounted -- simply not even mentioned.

As for this notion of "unconditionally" meeting with anyone, it is a Republican talking point, again eagerly swept up by Lieberman in service to our cause. Nobody honestly believes any American president, of either party, will "unconditionally" meet with anyone. It is a half-baked talking point sloughed from the skin of Karl Rove's back.

As for the assertion of McCain as the politically courageous maverick who will no doubt be a compassionate and bipartisan conservative, if elected, let us not even touch that for now. There are too many words here already.


There are another dozen things to mock about Lieberman's column -- deconstructing it would take chapters, not just paragraphs -- but in the end Lieberman's very simplistic and fiction-touting assertions boil down to his own simplistic and fiction-touting notions of foreign policy. Lieberman's true problem (and the one that got him booted from the Democratic Party in his own primary) is that for Lieberman, all foreign policy "seriousness" is dependent on supporting the clusterfuck of Iraq and all related possible clusterfucks in neighboring countries. Not just before the invasion, but during the occupation, during all the "reorganizations" and "surges" and turned corners and imminent successes and plans for goddamned Green Zone theme parks, now and in perpetuity, and now continuing into Iran, and we're not supposed to talk about Pakistan because They Are Our Friends.

If you don't support indefinite action in Iraq, if you don't support the most aggressive of uberhawkish positions in the Middle East, Joe Lieberman will declare you an appeaser, pure and simple. It does not matter what other foreign policy positions you may hold: whether you support action in Afghanistan, or wish to see a non-nuclear North Korea, or what your opinions may be about Sudan or Myanmar or Tibet or Russia or Pakistan or the dozens of other crisis points around the world; for Lieberman, Iraq is all. Support Iraq, or you are not "serious." Support Iraq, or you are an "appeaser."

Here is a man unbalanced by the rage that can only come from a steady stream of human failures. Foreign policy is a simple land, for Joe Lieberman; it steadfastly consists of doing the most aggressive thing at the most aggressive time, and all other options are weak to the point of very nearly being anti-American. And yet as Iraq has shown, such actions can be not just unwise, but catastrophically destructive. For Joe Lieberman, asserting his opponents to be complacent or unpatriotic or appeasers is the only possible rhetorical option remaining, and he lacks the wisdom to leave it unused.

I can think of only one example of recent Democratic appeasement: the way Senator Reid and others have constantly appeased Joe Lieberman, in spite of Lieberman's constant and increasingly rabid attempts to undermine his previous party. As has been amply demonstrated by Joe himself, appeasement does not work.  

Open Thread

Wed May 21, 2008 at 06:50:01 PM PDT

Quote of the day:
"If it was OK to have these [lobbyists] working for you in February, why is it not OK today?" asked one Republican lobbyist who counts a friend among the new McCain outcast class.

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