The Muslim holy month of Ramadan begins tonight around the world. During this period of religious observance, people fast from food or water until the sun goes down and religious services are held every night.
But in Iraq, this month has another, more ominous connotation. In each of the past four years, violence has increased and deaths of U.S. military have spiked upward during Ramadan.
The next month may produce another reality check about the results of the Bush escalation of military troop levels in Baghdad. Gen. Petraeus reported this week that the number of "non-hostile" U.S. fatalities has declined over the past two months. Will that continue during Ramadan?
The trends over the past four years are clear. In U.S. Military Fatalities in Iraq: A Four-Year Retrospective Glenn Kutler notes that:
The Iraq war has coincided with four observances of Ramadan. Each one has witnessed an upsurge of violence towards Americans, as evidenced by an increase in the rate of U.S. fatalities per day, compared to other periods of the war.
Average Daily U.S. Fatalities During Ramadan:
- 2003: 3.03
- 2004: 3.45
- 2005: 3.34
- 2006: 3.69
Average: 3.38
Daily Average for Entire War (through 3/19/2007) excluding Ramadan): 2.10
U.S. military fatalities increased by an average of over 60 percent during Ramadan compared with the rest of the war.
The dates of Ramadan are based on the cycles of the moon and occur a couple of weeks earlier each year. So in 2003, the holy month started on October 26th and ended on November 24th. This year, it begins tonight.
In an interview tonight on Fresh Air [PBS] Thomas Ricks, the Pentagon reporter from the Washington Post and author of Fiasco, speculated about how this change in the calendar could affect the level of violence in Iraq.
Ricks was in the Middle East twice when Ramadan fell in the late summer. Days are hotter and longer, and fasting without food or water is more difficult. Since people have to wait until after dark to eat and drink, they needed to stay up later and got less sleep.
Given the already horrific living conditions in most of Baghdad, it's hard to imagine how people will deal with this increased stress. I fear for people who are already in poor health. We've created conditions that may make it life-threatening for Iraqis to follow their traditional observances.
Ricks made no predictions, but the tone of his comments relayed some concerns that weren't addressed in Congress yesterday. Gen. Petraeus presented a picture of "progress" through his selective statistics and graphs this week. He knows, and we know, that that the reality is much more complex. The next month may give us a much clearer picture of the reality on the ground.