There is a huge snafu under way that may threaten the integrity of the democratic primary results. According to Juan Cole:
A specter haunts the Democratic Party, and it is the exclusion of Michigan and Florida delegates from the Democratic Convention.
Both the Republican and the Democratic National Committees have been penalizing states that move their primaries up to January, as Michigan and Florida did.
The DNC says it will only recognize the Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina primaries in January. Michigan and Florida won't be accepted.
How this may cause Hillary to win after the flip...
Juan goes on to say:
there is this bombshell:
' Democratic candidates John Edwards, Barack Obama, Bill Richardson and Joe Biden have withdrawn their names from the ballot to satisfy Iowa and New Hampshire, which were unhappy Michigan was challenging their leadoff status on the primary calendar. That leaves Hillary Rodham Clinton, Dennis Kucinich, Chris Dodd, Mike Gravel and "uncommitted," as the choices on the Democratic ballot in Michigan. '
Well, the way I read it, that means Hillary takes Michigan. And, if Carl Levin is right, Michigan delegates may ultimately be seated at the convention despite what the DNC now says.
So if the followng chain of events occurs:
- Hillary wins Michigan and Florida, since the other guys aren't running there.
- Those delegations are seated at the convention eventually.
- Hillary wins the democratic nomination.
Juan is worried about the general election also:
I am worried about this situation. At the level of the presidency, it may be a close race. Michigan and Florida are key states. Michigan has been trending Democrat but that is not set in stone. Florida adds several hundred thousand residents a year, so it won't be the same state as in 2004 and may be up for grabs. The way this dispute over timing is working out, it may well disadvantage Democrats, and it certainly will disadvantage Obama and Edwards.
There is more, and you can read it at http://www.juancole.com/...