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All of these recent polls have been conducted during McCain's post-convention bounce. In a way, this is the new baseline -- if McCain can maintain these levels, he's in about as good shape as he can be. Otherwise, Obama can reassert his advantage. We'll know more in the coming weeks.

So the new baseline, with just post-convention polls:


Colorado

Fox/Rasmussen: McCain 46, Obama 49 (Trend: McCain 49, Obama 48)

Ras thinks Obama got the bounce in the Rocky Mountain state.


Florida

Fox/Rasmussen: McCain 48, Obama 48 (Trend: McCain 48, Obama 46)
PPP: McCain 50, Obama 45 (Trend: McCain 47, Obama 44)


Michigan

CNN/Time: McCain 45, Obama 49
PPP: McCain 46, Obama 47 (Trend: McCain 43, Obama 46
Strategic Vision (R): McCain 44, Obama 45


Missouri

CNN/Time: McCain 50, Obama 45


Montana

Rasmussen: McCain 53, Obama 42 (Trend: McCain 47, Obama 47)


New Hampshire

CNN/Time: McCain 45, Obama 51


New Mexico

Rasmussen: McCain 49, Obama 47 (Trend: McCain 44, Obama 48)

Need more data to confirm, but at least Ras thinks there was a McCain bounce in the state.


North Carolina

PPP: McCain 48, Obama 44 (Trend: McCain 47, Obama 44)
SurveyUSA: McCain 58, Obama 38 (Trend: McCain 49, Obama 45)

Ummm.... Someone actually flubbed this one. There's lots of discussion about the difference in these two polls, and whether pollsters  that don't control for party samples (like SUSA) are "biased" or "rigged". I tend to believe that everything averages out in the end, so I'd rather look at the poll aggregates, and the more polls we have, the more accurate that aggregate will be. To that end, I'm glad to know that Daily Kos will be publishing its latest Research 2000 poll of NC tomorrow. More like SUSA, or more like PPP? We'll know in 24 hours.


North Dakota

Rasmussen: McCain 55, Obama 41 (Trend: McCain 43, Obama 43)

Huge McCain bounce according to Ras.


Ohio

Fox/Rasmussen: McCain 51, Obama 44 (Trend: McCain 48, Obama 43)


Pennsylvania

Fox/Rasmussen: McCain 45, Obama 47 (Trend: McCain 45, Obama 48)
Strategic Vision (R): McCain 45, Obama 47 (Trend: McCain 40, Obama 49)


Virginia

CNN/Time: McCain 50, Obama 46
Fox/Rasmussen: McCain 49, Obama 47 (Trend: McCain 48, Obama 47)
SurveyUSA: McCain 49, Obama 47 (Trend: McCain 48, Obama 47)

No convention bounce in Virginia.


Wisconsin

Strategic Vision (R): McCain 43, Obama 46 (Trend: McCain 42, Obama 47)

Even though the data is sparse, what we have suggests that McCain made big gains in what are traditional red states (Montana and North Dakota), while just incremental gains (or losses) in the other battleground states. Actually, those "incremental" gains or losses look more like statistical noise than actual movement. So other than solidify the numbers in already-Red states, there's been very little movement where it actually matters.

Expect an avalanche of polling in the next couple of weeks (much of it from us here at Daily Kos) that will allow us to paint a clearer picture of where the race actually stands at the moment. But for now, assume it's pretty much tied. Given this has all been taken during McCain's high-water mark (to date), that's pretty encouraging for our team.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:00 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  McCain peaked (22+ / 0-)

    from what I can tell

    "allow nothing to be in your life that you cannot walk out of in 30 seconds if you spot the heat around the corner". - movie HEAT

    by HEAT on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:02:13 PM PDT

  •  All polls are flawed (33+ / 0-)

    due to the oversampling of Barack Obama's legion of flesheating wolves.

    But seriously.. -5 in Missouri should cheer up some of the more dejected (who were unhappy with the idea of being down 10).

    "Our country right or wrong. When right, to be kept right; when wrong, to be put right" - Carl Schurz

    by RBH on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:03:30 PM PDT

  •  Thanks. I needed that fix. n/t (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jackieca, LeftofArizona, blueyedace2

    :-p

    Liberalism is trust of the people tempered by prudence. Conservatism is distrust of the people tempered by fear. ~William E. Gladstone

    by DCBlue on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:03:35 PM PDT

  •  Florida and Virginia.... (13+ / 0-)

    knowledgeable folks: what are we looking at here?

    I hear almost no optimism about Florida; I feel it's kind of like the reverse PA, where it looks closer than it is, then breaks Republican.

    Is Florida hopeless?

    And Virginia, any insights there? I know Obama's ground game supposedly could make a difference. What's the thinking here?

  •  I know you're going to leave us (4+ / 0-)

    to be a Master Pollster.
    I can FEEL it.

    By giving us the opinions of the uneducated, [journalism] keeps us in touch with the ignorance of the community. - Oscar Wilde

    by hotdamn on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:04:36 PM PDT

  •  I read today (7+ / 0-)

    that McCain and Palin are going to stay pretty close at the hip during campaign stops, etc. I hope people think "Wow, Biden and Obama are confident to split up and meet more voters, why not McCain/Palin?". I know Michelle Obama made two stops today and with Bill and Hillary still making an effort to push for Obama, I am excited. I like that they are pushing issues back on them and making them look like the cry babies. I think it's going to work pretty well.

    In times of universal deceit, telling the truth will be a revolutionary act. ~George Orwell

    by ElizabethAM on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:04:39 PM PDT

  •  GOP attempting to stop AA voters in Michigan (13+ / 0-)

    using foreclosure notices to challenge their right to vote, primarily in the Detroit area.

    Full article here.

    Hatred, which could destroy so much, never failed to destroy the man who hated, and this was an immutable law. James Baldwin

    by evilene689 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:04:41 PM PDT

  •  So Rasmussen thinks... (16+ / 0-)

    ...that McCain got a convention bounce in New Mexico, but Obama got an RNC bounce in Colorado???

    I'm getting a little tired of polls.  I think I'll go do something more productive, like hammer nails into my kneecaps.

  •  I am encouraged! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    deep, NM Ward Chair, Knarfc

    Those are very good polls post-convention.

    The debates are going to really be defining in many ways and could be the tipping point where the polls definitively break one way or the other.

    I really hope Biden buries Palin and I hope and pray that McSame blows a gasket on national television during a debate.

    NARAL and HRC endorsed Lieberman. Therefore, I can no longer endorse them.

    by LeftofArizona on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:05:48 PM PDT

  •  If it is true... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LouisMartin, DaveV, NM Ward Chair

    that McBush's gains are mostly in Red states that would have been gravy in a landslide victory and no headway in battleground states...that is great news!

    It means that the McBush base came home but independents and Democrats are largely unaffected...I always suspected the Republicans would figure out a way to fire up their base anyway in the end...

    Obama/Biden'08 Winning Change for America and the Democratic Party

    by dvogel001 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:06:07 PM PDT

  •  Considering the state of the Obama campaign... (4+ / 0-)

    ... it might be time to pony up that donation, kos.

    Yeah, I'm being glib. But dammit, I'm nervous.

    Cindy: "Honey, if you have trouble sleeping, count your houses!"

    by OReillysNightmare on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:06:15 PM PDT

  •  Obama needs Ohio. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Delilah, milton333, auditor, Alec82

    because now, the truth is he is not transforming any map soon. He should just give up on Indiana, being that him camping there like earlier in the week was a clear waste of time. he also needs to pull out of Montana too. Ohio, keep on WI, PA, and the others, but get out of Indiana, Montana, and North Dakota. Keep NC on the backburner and go after Ohio, being that it has more precedent of voting Dems, and its less likely to get a backlash vote coming like it may in NC now that palin has flamed the south, and their own congressmen, like GA's Westmoreland and probably GOPers in NC are gonna try to do.

    Keep that faith, keep your courage, stick together, stay strong, do not yield! Stand up, WE'RE DEMOCRATS AND WE'LL NEVER SURRENDER!

    by deaniac20 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:06:18 PM PDT

    •  Or Colorado. Or Virginia. Or Florida. (7+ / 0-)

      He needs to repeat what gore did in 2000, which is very much likely, and then win one of those states.  Or 2 smaller states.

      Here this is fun:

      <iframe frameBorder='0' src='http://www.electionreferee.com/flash/usa_ElectionReferee.html' style='width: 537px; height: 610px'></iframe>

      Liberalism is trust of the people tempered by prudence. Conservatism is distrust of the people tempered by fear. ~William E. Gladstone

      by DCBlue on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:11:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Ohio isn't going anyplace on it own (0+ / 0-)

        What happens in Ohio is entirely dependent on a deision Barack needs to make.

        If he keeps the status quo campaign run by Strickland/Clinton operatives tying him to the Democratic machine, then Palin steals the Independent/reform vote and Ohio goes red.

        If Obama seizes back the baton of new politics, tells Ted Strickland to sit in a closet for 8 weeks, and keeps the Clintons in Florida, or Switzerland -- if he promises to clean up Democratic corruption in Ohio -- then Obama wins Ohio and the election.

        Entirely up to him.  See my diary for more -- http://www.dailykos.com/...

        •  shoving the Clintons in the closet (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Delilah, marsbardem, DCBlue

          is not gonna work, given that his problem in that state IS Hillary Democrats, who like the Clintons but aren't sure about Obama, and women of the sort who Palin is luring away slowly but surely. Thats one state he NEEDS the Clintons and Strickland to carry them because they can.

          Keep that faith, keep your courage, stick together, stay strong, do not yield! Stand up, WE'RE DEMOCRATS AND WE'LL NEVER SURRENDER!

          by deaniac20 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:31:04 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  No, Ohioans do NOT like the Clintons (0+ / 0-)

            Try to get it -- that wa the DEMOCRATIC primary, and most Clinton voters were former Edwards voters. Largely the Clinton primary vote was an anti-Obama vote.

            Palin is a serious game changer -- she has challenged Obama to break with the machine, and Clinton and Strickland ARE the machine. They must stay away.

            They are fine in Florida or New Jersey where they are truly liked -- NOT Ohio.

            •  WTF are you talking about? (5+ / 0-)

              Strickland's been in office for 2 years.. he's the corruption cleaner, and has super high approval ratings...  Democratic machine?  This is the first time democrats have controlled the statehouse in over 20 years!

              And Hillary Clinton was always polling above McCain in Ohio, even when she was behind him almost everywhere else...

              And they love stricklans in OH-6... why do you think he won the governorship by 30 points...

              It profits a PUMA nothing to give their soul for the whole world... but for McCain? --Sir Thomas More (if he were here now)

              by LordMike on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:46:24 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  WTF are you talking about? (0+ / 0-)

                Corruption cleaner? WHAT? Name one single way that Ted Strikland has cleaned up any corruption?  Do you have any idea who he is and where he comes from?

                Replacing the most unpopular and corrupt administration in Ohio history does not say anything grand about Strickland. His approval rating has dropped 20 points since taking office.

                And now Strickland is locked in battle with the state's unions AND with the state's environmentalists. People neglected to realize that while in Congress, Strikland was a total shill for the coal and nuclear industries.

                He now supports a plan to build five coal plants along the Ohio River. Ask Al Gore how he feels about that.

                Tying Obama to Ted Strickland loses Ohio by driving all Independents to Sarah Palin. We're disgusted with the mahine in southern Ohio -- get a clue.

      •  Gore ran a crappy campaign (0+ / 0-)

        Obama's throwing out that playbook.

        •  yea, he's just not attacking (0+ / 0-)

          just like Al Gore did not attack Bush hard enough. Gore should have attacked Bush II the way Bush I attacked Dukakis. It shoulda been the same race but in reverse with regards to party. A VP vs. a failed governor.

          Keep that faith, keep your courage, stick together, stay strong, do not yield! Stand up, WE'RE DEMOCRATS AND WE'LL NEVER SURRENDER!

          by deaniac20 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:33:17 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I'm not saying run Gore's campaign. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          NM Ward Chair

          That would be silly.  

          I'm saying there is a very compelling argument that Obama can replicate the Electoral College margin that Gore achieved in 2000.  Then, if he can win one of the states I listed above, he surpasses the 270 EV threshold.  And becomes President.

          Liberalism is trust of the people tempered by prudence. Conservatism is distrust of the people tempered by fear. ~William E. Gladstone

          by DCBlue on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:39:57 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Gore was seriously handicapped by Lieberman. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          TomFromNJ, NM Ward Chair

          Although he (and most of us) probably did not realize it at the time.

          •  Lieberman probably helped put FL (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, NM Ward Chair

            in play in 2000. Even if he swung only 10% of the Jewish vote for Gore, that amounts to around 36K votes (Gore fell short in the certified tally by 537 votes, and by only 50+ votes in the recount at the time the supreme court stayed them.) W/o the 25 electoral votes from FL (and squeakers in IA, NM, WI, OR), the electoral college math was in a bad shape for Gore.

            Lieberman screwed Gore in the end, when he defied the campaign on the overseas ballots matter and sided with Bush, but prior to that, Lieberman almost certainly played a crucial role in putting the 25 electoral votes from FL in play.

            Go Obama/Biden! Throw the bums out!!

            by NeuvoLiberal on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:27:22 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Herb Kohl (0+ / 0-)

              woulda been better for Florida because he is also Jewish, moderate enough but voted AGAINST NAFTA which woulda been a huge help, and wouldn't have driven many liberals to Nader, as Lieberman did, and that video game legislation didn't help Liebs with younger voters. Kohl also woulda been good in the midwest, maybe even Ohio which also woulda won Gore the election. However, having a christian on the ticket maybe woulda helped Gore in West Virginia considering the kind of state that is, and Ohio too which was close that year. Gore should have thought before betting the farm on Florida with Lieberman considering the Bush machine in place there.

              Keep that faith, keep your courage, stick together, stay strong, do not yield! Stand up, WE'RE DEMOCRATS AND WE'LL NEVER SURRENDER!

              by deaniac20 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:41:26 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  WV only has 4 EV (0+ / 0-)

                too small (before the fact) to be a central focus, and the GOP outfits (NRA, coal, mining, oil, religious voters etc etc) demagogued Gore out of business in WV (for his progressive stands, esp. given his focus on the global warming issue) at least in the pre-handicapped race of 2000.

                OH is interesting. But, I suspect that FL was a LOT closer than OH for Gore at the time he was making his decision (early August). He was down by 15% after the GOp convention nationally. (My guesses: he was probably down by around 10 in FL at that time, and around 20% in OH). So, it took a hail mary strategy from that vantage point for Gore. I think making FL the key state was the right strategy w/o the benefit of hindsight (of Jeb Bush and Harris playing dirty tricks).

                Go Obama/Biden! Throw the bums out!!

                by NeuvoLiberal on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:55:02 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

        •  These were the 4 polls (0+ / 0-)

          over the week preceding Gore's entry into the race:

          	Gore	Bush
          6/9/99	36	53	10	17
          6/9/99	42	55	3	13
          6/10/99 38	54	8	16
          6/16/99 36	51	13	15
          
          link

          That averages to about 16% down to Bush (due to Clinton scandal fatigue). How exactly does a campaign that turns the race around by 16% during its course and wins the popular vote (and the election, before the supreme court stole it) qualify for a "crappy" campaign?

          What sort of a yard stick do you use to assess performance? Does it measure backwards.

          Mind you, he did that despite being:

          1. handicapped severely by Clinton scandal fatigue (Kerry and Obama both had a fervent anti-Bush sentiment to work with)
          1. low fund raising due to the general fatigue, those deficits (and HRC's campaign pulling millions it really didn't need) (gore had about 1/5th of what Obama will have raised, and about a third of what Kerry had in 2004)
          1. Nader hammering him day in and day out, pulling Gore out of winnable states in order to defend must win states. W/o Nader on the ballot, Gore would've won FL and NH, won a majority of the popular vote (he won plurality) and sans the overall impact, probably would've won a few more states like MO, TN, AR, WV, OH.
          1. Media going totally nuts in smearing Gore day in and day out
          1. there being no such thing as a netroots movement (now consisting of millions of Dem/prog activists) which is a partial antidote to the venom of the RWNM (RWNM essentially peaked around 2000)

          IMO, only a completely ill-informed or inconsiderate person would slam Gore instead of acknowledging a strong enough campaign he ran under excruciating circumstances and won.

          Go Obama/Biden! Throw the bums out!!

          by NeuvoLiberal on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:23:18 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  it was AL GORE'S CAMPAIGN, (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            milton333

            NOT Bill Clinton's. no one cares about a year and a half out before the election season begins. A lot happens before then. By your logic, Reagan's 1984 win should be an upset considering how in 1983, he looked a lot like Bill Clinton in 1995 after the 1982-1983 recession and the '82 election in which the GOP lost a ton of seats, and Reagan's approvals were down in the 40s. The polls got close when 2000 came along. Yes, we all know Monica hurt Gore, but it wasn't Bill or Monica's campaign, it was AL GORE'S CAMPAIGN. HE'S the one who let himself get swift boated and didn't have a war room, so as not to look to "cliche," he didn't run decent ads against Bush just as in the style of John Kerry, and picked a dud running mate. If he was going to pick a Jew, Herb Kohl should have been it. He would not have driven so many to Ralph Nader as Lieberman did because he voted against NAFTA and death penalty, but like the moderate he is, he voted FOR DOMA and welfare reform which woulda helped with swing voters. Kohl was a midwesterner which may have helped with either Ohio or Missouri and was from Wisconsin. If he was gonna pick a non-jew it coulda worked too, like that was the year John Kerry shoulda been picked. He was on the short list, and woulda secured New Hampshire. Gore's "people vs. the powerful" message came off as divisive and class warfare. he took New Hampshire for granted towards the end of the election. Plus, he did have a tough opponent who people believed was a southerner outsider. But in the end, Al Gore has no one to blame but Al Gore.

            Keep that faith, keep your courage, stick together, stay strong, do not yield! Stand up, WE'RE DEMOCRATS AND WE'LL NEVER SURRENDER!

            by deaniac20 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:49:24 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Starting 15-20% due to Clinton's conduct, (0+ / 0-)

              impeachment circus, and the resulting fatigue meant that:

              1. Gore needed to OVERCOME the hurdle of 20% (that takes tons of money, time and effort)
              1. it likely led to Gore not being able to raise money easily (who wants to plunk down thousands on a candidate when the prospects of victory look dim given to those deficits)
              1. Bradley saw an opening to run (Bradley drew some blood and left Gore with some serious gashes which Nader capitalized on later)
              1. media would not have been as reckless and malevolent  towards Gore had he not been trailing by 20% (their behavior is often affected by the polls; they want access to the eventual winner of the race; Gore, trailing by 15-20% wasn't looking like the prospective victor and so they attacked him mercilessly)

              etc

              Those deficits Clinton handed Gore led to a whole gamut of adverse impacts on Gore's run. That's the ugly and unfortunate facts about the 2000 election.

              Go Obama/Biden! Throw the bums out!!

              by NeuvoLiberal on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:03:44 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  AL GORE WAS THE CANDIDATE, PERIOD. (0+ / 0-)

                and one who chose to work with Bob Shrum running his campaign. Bob Shrum doesn't exactly have a winning record, and did not even back in 2000. Having him was Al Gore's mistake, and Bill Clinton did not get into Al Gore's ear and tell him to use Shrum.

                Al Gore also chose Joe Lieberman, whereas if he wanted a Jew, he could have picked Herb Kohl, who was also Jewish, moderate enough but voted AGAINST NAFTA which woulda been a huge help, and wouldn't have driven many liberals to Nader, as Lieberman did, and that video game legislation didn't help Liebs with younger voters. Kohl also woulda been good in the midwest, maybe even Ohio which also woulda won Gore the election. But no, Al Gore goes with Joe Lieberman because the MEDIA would love him, just because of one quote he said about Clinton which the average voter probably could have given a damn less about. An AL GORE decision, not a Bill Clinton decision.

                If Al Gore was gonna pick a non-Jew, even better, because being that he got 267 electoral votes, ANY other fucking state in the union, and a christian may have helped in West Virginia, Tennessee(his home state as he joined George McGovern in losing it), Ohio in which he came close, Missouri in which he also came close too. But he had to bet the farm on Florida in which he new full well Bush machinery controlled the state. Not a Bill Clinton decision to bet the farm on Florida, and Al Gore decision.

                Al Gore also ran terrible ads where he looked and came off like the stiff people thought he was, like whereas Bush wore plad shirts, appeared like a "plain folk," and came off laid back. Bill Clinton did not make Gore's ads up.

                Do you really not think SOMEONE was gonna challenge Gore for the nomination? Bradley woulda probably done it anyway, he was jealous from day 1 that Al Gore got the Veep spot on the Clinton ticket because Bradley was being  considered at the time. Wow, I guess position as Clinton's VP must have SUCKED so bad for Bradley to hold a grudge nearly 8 years. He still hates the Clintons for not giving him that spot, hence his endorsement for Obama. So in a sense, it was Bill's fault Bradley ran because he didn't pick Bradley in 1992. But don't try to argue that had any real effect. Its not as if the left wasn't gonna come at Gore for his 8 years, Bradley or not.

                Al Gore was the one who chose to sigh in the debates against Bush. While yes, the media shit all over him, just watch and start at 0:27 and watch until the end. No one but Al Gore told Al Gore to get up in bush's face and he did come off a patronizing to Bush, and yes Bush is an idiot, but you can't come off patronizing.

                Al Gore didn't campaign hard enough or put enough money into his HOME STATE, Tennessee, and Bill Clinton wasn't the one to tell him to do that. Bill Clinton also didn't tell him to neglect New Hampshire towards the end of the campaign, which also woulda put Gore in the WH.

                And Bush was a tough opponent. He could rally a base and raise money like nobody else could in 2000. Yes, even with the evangelical base anxious to get Clinton/Gore out, I assure you Bob Dole, Steve Forbes, Jack Kemp, or Gary Bauer could ever have run as strong against Gore as George W. Bush. Gore would have EASILY landslided any one of them becuase none of them would have rallied the base or raised the cash, not even forbes. And Bush was somewhat charismatic. Give him credit, people bought into the whole cowboy thing. He was the favorite for the nomination before Monica, he was even beating Gore in a poll back in 1997. Bill Clinton did not give George W. Bush his money or charisma. Even without Monica, I still bet McCain woulda had a hard time getting the nod in 2000.

                While yes, Monica hurt Al Gore, Al Gore also hurt Al Gore. When a plane crashes, you blame the pilot, not the weather. When a boat sinks, you blame the captain, not the seas. Al Gore was the captain of his campaign, and he sunk it with poor decisions. Clinton, yes was the rough winds, but Gore ran the boat.

                Keep that faith, keep your courage, stick together, stay strong, do not yield! Stand up, WE'RE DEMOCRATS AND WE'LL NEVER SURRENDER!

                by deaniac20 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:43:00 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  When a plane crashes because of (0+ / 0-)

                  a damaged wing, blaming the pilot who did manage to land the plane safely at its destination port (Gore DID win) should get praise, not horrendous criticism. The person that damaged the wing (Bill Clinton) recklessly does get the blame for what he did.

                  Gore overcame and won, but had Clinton not been reckless, Gore would've won a landslide victory beyond compromise by the GOP goons in FL and the supreme court.

                  Go Obama/Biden! Throw the bums out!!

                  by NeuvoLiberal on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 06:42:38 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Al Gore hired Bob Shrum. (0+ / 0-)

                    Al Gore sighed at the debates. Al Gore ignored his home state. Al Gore got in Bush's face in the clip I showed you. Al Gore picked a dud running mate. Al Gore ran bad ads. Al Gore was the candidate. He didn't overcome shit.

                    Keep that faith, keep your courage, stick together, stay strong, do not yield! Stand up, WE'RE DEMOCRATS AND WE'LL NEVER SURRENDER!

                    by deaniac20 on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 08:57:11 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Bill Clinton's blobjob cost Dems and Gore (0+ / 0-)

                      the presidency. Plain and simple. Everything else you say was either minor or contrary to your claim in terms of impact.

                      It's the BJ that a pig-headed, narcissistic Bill Clinton that set the 2000 election completely off track, and there's mounds of data before us to prove it.

                      Bottomline: Gore helped Clinton become president and helped him govern the country. In return, Clinton screwed Gore over with his reckless conduct.

                      Go Obama/Biden! Throw the bums out!!

                      by NeuvoLiberal on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 10:44:47 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Al Gore's own campaign (0+ / 0-)

                        is not minor. The message a campaign spreads is NOT minor, and the "people vs. powerful" was not minor. Fucking the debates up, the one chance he had to show America Bush was a moron was NOT minor. The man you pick to run your campaign is NOT minor. Bush would never have gotten elected without Karl Rove. Bill Clinton is a God, and it is time you honored him.

                        Keep that faith, keep your courage, stick together, stay strong, do not yield! Stand up, WE'RE DEMOCRATS AND WE'LL NEVER SURRENDER!

                        by deaniac20 on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 11:52:30 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  The story of the 2000 election (0+ / 0-)

                          is not complete without understanding the most pivotal adverse factor (amazingly, also while the traitional media was also at its worst) that worked against Gore: that's the Clinton scandal backlash/fatigue.

                          The Clintons and their acolytes want that story to remain hidden. In fact, they'be been rather successful at hiding it; even I (a fairly thorough analyst of political things) didn't comprehend it's impact until I actually saw the overwhelming data 3-4 years ago, being guided in that direction by some discussions that took place right here. Now that I've figured it out, I want everyone to fully realize that aspect when thinking and talking about the 2000 election.

                          "Bill Clinton is a God, and it is time you honored him.'

                          What, what?

                          Go Obama/Biden! Throw the bums out!!

                          by NeuvoLiberal on Fri Sep 12, 2008 at 10:11:47 AM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  actually I've said many a time (0+ / 0-)

                            that monica hurt Gore, yes. But of what Al Gore COULD control, which was a helluva lot, he failed. He failed to have decent people run his campaign, he failed to have a unifying message, and he failed the debates against a fucking moron. It was Al Gore's campaign, HIS responsibility to seek the Presidency, and he blew it. He could have won that election handily in spite of Monica had he had a good message, had decent strategists running the show, because as we all know, no Karl Rove, no GWB, and most importantly, not screwed up his chance to make Bush look like a monkey.

                            It wasn't because of Monica that much either that he didn't measure up. You tell me he woulda had as hard time against Dan Quayle, Jack Kemp, Gary Bauer, or Steve Forbes even in the aftermath of Monica. But you coudln't because you all know those guys woulda been wrecked. Bush was also a tough opponent. Give him some credit.

                            Keep that faith, keep your courage, stick together, stay strong, do not yield! Stand up, WE'RE DEMOCRATS AND WE'LL NEVER SURRENDER!

                            by deaniac20 on Fri Sep 12, 2008 at 10:35:21 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                •  Clinton fatigue: (0+ / 0-)


                  started Gore down by 15-20%:

                  I know of only two 1997 Bush v Gore polls from 1997. Gore led in one by 6% and the one you link to where Bush led by 3%, which is a slight edge for Gore (1.5% being the average lead for Gore). Then came the Clinton-Lewinsky scandal, and after the circus concluded, Gore trailed by 15-20%, a net swing of 17.5% against Gore on the average.

                  Through his campaign (whatever decisions, good and bad), Gore overcame those deficits and:

                  1. won the popular vote
                  1. won FL and hence the election.

                  If he didn't have to contend with the 17.5% swing against him due to the scandal, he would've probably won landslide popular vote as well as landslide electoral college victory.

                  Go Obama/Biden! Throw the bums out!!

                  by NeuvoLiberal on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 06:52:35 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  he didn't overcome shit (0+ / 0-)

                    just as Reagan didn't "overcome" anything in 1984 after having low approvals and being down to Mondale in 1983. 2000 was the election year. he had the reigns that year, and it was HIS campaign. He picked Shrum, ran poor ads, poor running mate, ignored his home state, sighed in the debates and got in Bush's face, and lost the election himself.

                    Keep that faith, keep your courage, stick together, stay strong, do not yield! Stand up, WE'RE DEMOCRATS AND WE'LL NEVER SURRENDER!

                    by deaniac20 on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 08:55:57 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  bullshit. The Clinton scandal fatigue (0+ / 0-)

                      led to all sorts of secondary handicaps (as I listed) in addition to persistent double digit deficits Clinton's reckless behavior handed to Gore.

                      Why the fuck do you want to excuse Clinton's egregious behavior when he knew fully fucking well that the fucking rightwing was out to destroy him, Al Gore and the Democratic party.

                      Bill Clinton was a fucking brat to be so fucking reckless given the fucking high stakes involved.

                      Other than the strong economic performance numbers the Clinton/Gore admin posted (with plenty help from Gore):

                      1. Robert Rubin:

                      link
                      ROBERT RUBIN, FORMER SECRETARY OF TREASURY, June 2000: I worked with the vice president for 6 1/2 years. He was deeply involved in every major economic decision we made.

                      1. Dick Morris (remeber who brought Morris from AR after the 1994 midterms: Hillary Clinton):

                      link
                      Gore also has proven executive experience. Unlike Hillary, Al Gore actually played a major role in the Clinton White House.

                      The First Lady had little or no impact on public policy in the years after her health care fiasco cost the Democrats control of Congress and before the Lewinsky impeachment.

                      After the Monica case was uncovered, neither Clinton did anything of note in the realm of public policy-- so focused were they on fending off impeachment and keeping the presidency. Later, they were preoccupied with Hillary winning her Senate bid.

                      Contrast Gore with Hillary. Gore was, in fact, Bill Clinton’s go-to guy in the White House.

                      Every time an important task faced the Clinton Administration, Al Gore would step up and get the assignment.

                      By the end of the first Clinton term, Gore was responsible for policy in the following areas: science, space, Internet, family leave, television violence and sex, government efficiency and cost reduction, drugs, relations with Russia, air safety, tobacco regulation, and a myriad of other assignments.

                      Indeed, his vice presidency encompassed a very large segment of the Clinton Administration’s agenda.

                      1. WJC himself: in a speech have in 2005 (at a felicitation for him at Hoffstra university), Clinton credited Gore first, ahead of HRC,  among those that helped make Clinton/Gore successes (mostly on the economic front) happen.

                      The Clintons (HRC willingly, and WJC indirectly and reckelssly) wrecked Al Gore's presidential prospects (thus depriving the country of someone that would've helped usher in a great new green economy, among other things) and wrecked the Democratic party (by ignoring it's grassroots after the 1994 rout, and by supporting the Iraq war). They should be shunned for their conduct.

                      Go Obama/Biden! Throw the bums out!!

                      by NeuvoLiberal on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 10:41:20 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  oh yes, HILLARY did it (0+ / 0-)

                        she went out of her way to wreck the ALmighty Gore. You sound like the Vince Foster people "Oh Hillary did it." I could give a rats ass less about what Dick Morris says. I'm not excusing Bill for Monica, but he was not the candidate, and the major decisions of the Al Gore Presidential Campaign 2000, like campaign manager, where to spend the money, whether to sigh on stage and to pick Lieberman were not Bill Clinton's choice or anything to do with Monica, except Lieberman which was dumb cuz its not like it helped with anyone that Herb Kohl wouldn't have helped with. I chose not to excuse Al Gore, who was the candidate. He is not a God. Of course Bill says Gore was involved in decisions as does Rubin. But its not like either are saying Gore was the President. Bill Clinton, not Al Gore was the President. VPs usually ARE involved some how. Gore was the candidate and wrecked his own prospects.

                        Keep that faith, keep your courage, stick together, stay strong, do not yield! Stand up, WE'RE DEMOCRATS AND WE'LL NEVER SURRENDER!

                        by deaniac20 on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 11:50:44 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

              •  They attacked him because he was the Democratic (0+ / 0-)

                candidate and the corporate media are owned by Republicans.

    •  Florida (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      beach babe in fl

      That seems closer than was originally expected as well.

      "It may be true that the law cannot make a man love me, but it can keep him from lynching me, and I think that's pretty important." Martin Luther King, Jr

      by Alec82 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:11:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Not on most maps I've seen (5+ / 0-)

      I get the sense that OH is slipping away.

      I'd like to know more about VA.

      It's all about nailing down CO and NM, then Kerry + IA.

  •  "Encouraging for our team"...so hope ur right. (0+ / 0-)

    Dude! I so hope you are right and that this is the peak of the McCain bounce and it settles Obama's way by a few points over the next week.

  •  Poll Secessionist Ties, Kos (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    fink, Reed Richards, Blicero, Wyote, axel000

    If there's a poll out there about the impact secessionist ties would have it might be enough to kick the media into gear asking questions that would shatter the whole "patriotic" thing the Republicans like to claim.

    •  GREAT idea (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      fink, BlackGriffen, Reed Richards, axel000

      Hadn't heard that anywhere else.

      Yes, that is a genius way to sneak it into the discourse.

    •  Absolutely, excellent idea. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BlackGriffen

      Palin must be asked direct questions regarding her and her husband's thoughts re: breaking off from the United States.  

      Like, "If she loved the U.S., she wouldn't want to leave it, would she?"  "Whose side is she on?"  Make them explain themselves.  

      Introduce this, and a) people start seeing how out there she is, and b) it revives questions about McCain's judgment - "how do you pick a VP Candidate who can take or leave the U.S.?"

      Now, Palin's secessionist sympathies could get some support among certain segments of the South, but it's not like those people would be supporting Obama anyway.

  •  Waste money in WI, McCain. (10+ / 0-)

    Ron Paul is still more popular than McCain up here.

    The lesson of that history is that you must not despair, that if you are right, and you persist, things will change. -Howard Zinn

    by blueyedace2 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:07:26 PM PDT

    •  LOL! that is so true. He has signs all over. nt (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      NM Ward Chair

      Remember, the Republicans will love you until you are born!

      by krwlngwthyou on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:35:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Here in WA (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        NM Ward Chair

        There are a lot of Obama signs. And Ron Paul signs.

        No McCain signs. I mean, zero. And this is where people are willing to vote for the scary real estate developer Dino Rossi for governor. Even those people have a floor they won't drop below. Or at least, they won't do so publicly.

        Pit bulls are intelligent, perceptive, funny, loyal, clever animals. I had a pit bull as my best friend... Ms. Palin, you are no pit bull.

        by grover on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:45:37 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Precisely (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BlackGriffen, TomFromNJ, Ivey476

    In other thread there were people fretting over the NM poll, saying that Obama should be so far ahead.  McCain's the next-door Senator of the past 25 years and is coming off a hugely successful convention.  That coupled with Obama's ground game and Gov. Richardson, and he hits his ceiling at +2%.  I for one think that's great news.  IA and NM will go to Obama.  If he then holds on to every Kerry state (which I believe he will) he then only needs to grab Colorado and it's game.  

  •  Which supports those of us who see R convention (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    hyperstation, grover

    Even though the data is sparse, what we have suggests that McCain made big gains in what are traditional red states (Montana and North Dakota), while just incremental gains (or loses) in the other battleground states.

    purely as a move to solidify the base and, as Obama stated, had nothing for people who were looking for what a president McCain would do about jobs or the war or health care or anything most people care about.

    Supplemental war spending bills....the President's earmark, totalling a thousand bridges to nowhere. Will McCain put the wars on-budget?

    by Inland on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:08:46 PM PDT

  •  I Distrust Those Rasmussen (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    shenderson

    Numbers.  Sorry, I just don't think that McCain would get that much of a boost in Monatana and North Dakota.  These two states were competative before the conventions, and in fact Obama had a narrow lead in a couple of Montana polls, if memory serves.  And suddenly McCain has double digit leads in both states?  Just like that, poof, a double digit lead?  Something is wrong there, I just do not beleive there could be that much movement.

  •  whether and weather (0+ / 0-)

    The next couple of days will be dominated by 9/11 and then Hurricane Ike.  Take a few days off then see what's up on Monday.

    •  And how much traction (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KariQ, NM Ward Chair

      the Interior Dept scandal gets in the news. Same with the really iffy news from the Hill about Afghanistan. If the MSM actually reports on those stories, Joe Citizen is going to sit with his family, his Papa Murphy's pizza (Domino's costs too much; gotta bake it yourself nowadays), and wonder "what the hell is going on? We're losing the important war and everyone is literally screwing around on taxpayer time."

      That's IF the Nightly News actually does its job.

      I'm taking bets.

      Pit bulls are intelligent, perceptive, funny, loyal, clever animals. I had a pit bull as my best friend... Ms. Palin, you are no pit bull.

      by grover on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:50:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Looking forward to the Kos (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BlackGriffen

    Research 2000 polls.  Don't forget to tease us about when they're coming out (like you did with NC tomorrow)!

    Wishes:  I'd like to see another NM poll after the somewhat bad news from Rasmussen today, and, of course, another CO to confirm the somewhat good news from the other day.

    -- Stu

  •  SUSA NC poll is bogus (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    movie buff, paintitblue, math4barack

    Bad sample:

    Of course, we really cannot know whether this North Carolina poll is an outlier. But based on the dramatic change in the partisan composition of the North Carolina sample, without a similar change in Virginia, the most likely explanation at this point is that Survey USA may have just drawn a bad sample, one that over-represents Republicans and under-represents Democrats. At the very least, it would be useful if Survey USA can provide more explanation about why they think the partisan composition has changed so significantly in this recent poll.

    http://www.pollster.com/...

    SUSA also had Hillary Clinton close in the NC primary. Obama won there by 14 pts.

    Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

    by Scarce on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:09:20 PM PDT

    •  SUSA blew almost every southern state (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      beltane, paintitblue, math4barack

      They had Alabama tied, but Obama won it by 15.  Similar in Georgia, IIRC.  For whatever reason, they totally suck at polling the South.  Possibly underrepresenting AA voters.

    •  The poll was conducted on LABOR DAY WEEKEND. (0+ / 0-)

      The three most critical constituencies for Obama in NC are: college students(go Tar Heels!), African-Americans(he'll get 90%, turnout is what's important here), and the people who moved here from other states in the past few years(many of whom came because of the great college system).  Aside from the widely-known problems with weekend polls in general, Labor Day weekend is especially bad because groups #1 and 3 are the most likely to leave during said weekend. (UNC, for example, was nearly deserted over those three days)

  •  The does not reflect all relevant reactions (0+ / 0-)

    The poll captures the effects of the Palin spin. What the poll does not account for is the current reaction against that spin.

    Moreover there are a lot of stuff on Palin that has been largely vetted but not yet been felt. More information about the Palin stance on the "bridge to nowhere", troopergate, her pursuit of pork and the like have only been spoken of by the Republican spin meisters. The effects (if they even have traction) by the news media have yet to play out. That might take a couple weeks to come out, but those effects are likely to widen the Obama-McCain gap.  

  •  I'll take it (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    shenderson

    New Mexico is the most interesting state in here. We need it, and I think it will come back. But Colorado and Virginia are VERY encouraging.

  •  AA Vote.... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Alec82

    is there any way that we can see polls with, say, a 2-3 bump (is that crazy?) in the AA vote with it going something like 90-10 for Obama?

  •  Considering that its Ras/Fox it's good for Obama. (0+ / 0-)

    -- if McCain can maintain these levels, he's in about as good shape as he can be.

    What are you talking about Boss?

  •  Charlie Cook: state polls are all garbage. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DaveV, delphil, NM Ward Chair, Wyote

    I just returned from a rather interesting talk given my Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report. He spoke on many aspects of the election. One of his primary concerns is that the state polls right now are not very accurate because the major polling organizations are not putting money into them.

    He specifically noted that Rasmussen and SUSA were garbage because they use automated calls where there is no control over who responds.

    I concur.

    •  I think Charlie Cook is kind of lazy. (0+ / 0-)

      He tends to make a lot of sense, but I don't think he really works that hard to find things out.

      See the losers in the best bars, meet the winners in the dives -Neil Young

      by danoland on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:16:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Charlie is a good guy (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      collegekid318

      I like him better than many of the other progs out there (especially the hated Rothenball), but his prejudice against SUSA is a bit strained. The results that that firm produces speaks for themselves. They're solid.

      Do they have a few funky polls? Yes. But every firm pops out a dud now and again.

      Swing State Project: A sexy, sassy look at the 2008 elections. Get a four-digit UID while you still can!

      by HellofaSandwich on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:22:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  It's interesting now, was boring before. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    auditor, Blicero, kat68, Wyote

    Now Obama hast to run an actual campaign.  If McCain hadn't picked Palin, Obama could pretty much have packed his bags and strolled on over to the White House without breaking a sweat.

    The Palin pick has gotten a lot more Americans interested in the election and that's a good thing.

    Obama can't magically spend 5 1/2 years in a Vietnamese tiger cage, but McCain can't answer every question with , "There I was, left for dead...".

    Whatever the polls say right now, and no matter how good, strong, and courageous a man McCain might be, he remains a lackluster campaigner with with a very untested and very raw VP candidate at his side.

    As the new and shiny wears off Palin, you've still got to like the Dems in this one.

    Free speech? Yeah, I've heard of that. Have you?

    by dinotrac on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:12:36 PM PDT

    •  Yup (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      NM Ward Chair

      We were tied at this point in 2006 and won big btw....

      "Polls are like crack, political activists know they're bad for them but they read them anyways."-Unknown

      by skywaker9 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:18:28 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  For all the talk about how "issues don't matter" (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      NM Ward Chair

      you also have to think that, barring a really shitty performance by BHO or Biden in any of them are going to help, if for no other reason than the fact that McCain and Palin will have to own up to their unpopular conservative economic views.

      •  Issues do matter. (0+ / 0-)

        However, that goes both ways.

        "Drill, drill, drill" has hurt the Democrats in this campaign.

        The dumb clucks in charge decided to act like 8 year olds and turn it into a taunt.  End result?  Lot of Americans don't think the Democratic leadership cares about something very important to them.

        It's good to be right in principle, but you can't be tone deaf to the electorate.  The Republicans aggressively sold an idea that people wanted to hear and the Democrats sound like Marie Antoinette saying "Let them drive cake".

        Sometimes it's hard for me to believe that a politician as smart as Bill Clinton could come from the same party.

        Free speech? Yeah, I've heard of that. Have you?

        by dinotrac on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 02:34:34 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I love wonky number filled posts... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Ivey476

    ...makes me wants to make a giant touch screen electoral map in my living room!

    Speaking of which... if someone make an iPhoe Touch/iPhone app that did just that it'd be freaking awesome!

    What's Really At Stake: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_4ylmMQWiw

    by Suck It Trebek on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:13:36 PM PDT

  •  Obama, shut this thing down! (4+ / 0-)

    Needle McCain at the first debate so he blows his lid and you will wrap up this election. People are seeing through the lies and the Goebbels-like behavior of the disgusting GOP campaign. These "christians" have gone too far.

    -7.38, -5.23 "Though the storm may be raging, and the billows tossing high, Lord I feel like going on."

    by CocoaLove on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:13:40 PM PDT

  •  Kos, tell us more about the economics of polling (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Always Thinkin

    I can understand if you don't want to tell us how much you're paying, but I'd love to know about the options you have to make and their relative costs.
    For example, could you have a daily tracking polling with 1000 people a day instead of 300? How much more would that cost (3x as much?), and how much more accurate would it be? For regular polls, how much extra is it to get a sample size of 400 vs. 800 vs. 1000 vs. 1500? Is it the case that you have the choice of five really accurate polls, or seven kind of accurate ones?

    I can understand if you don't want to talk dollars and cents, but I'm interested in the relative costs.

    See the losers in the best bars, meet the winners in the dives -Neil Young

    by danoland on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:14:27 PM PDT

  •  WTF ?!?!?!??!?!??! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jackieca

    Its so fucking frustrating to see these things.  The people who've been the most disadvantaged are the ones in these battle ground states...

    We're still 50+ away from November 4th, but, damn't all to hell....

    Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.  I'm going running again.

  •  New Mexico? (0+ / 0-)

    Damn. Weren't we up like 13 a week ago?

  •  McCain only +5 in WV (7+ / 0-)

    One poll I've seen very little discussion of is the Blankenship poll that shows WV at 44 M, 39 O.  (Saw it listed on TPM Election Central, but it doesn't seem to be up on Pollster or RCP.)

    Apparently they are a respected pollster in the state, and the numbers are closer there than one might have hoped.

    details here

    -- Stu

  •  No, mustn't encourage (0+ / 0-)

    As I said elsewhere tonight, the states will take a little longer to de-bounce than the national.

    Unless, of course, it's a Gallup poll :)

    "What is a political regime, when devoid of justice, but organized crime?" (Augustine, DCD)

    by Allen on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:16:58 PM PDT

  •  another reason for not trusting polls. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Vicky, deep, NM Ward Chair, kat68

    Former Pollster Pleads Guilty to Fabricating Results Of Polls In 2004-On Behalf Of Bush & Others

    http://elections-o.channel.aol.com/...

    Few obstacles can withstand the power of a million voices calling for change. - Barack Obama

    by aj2k on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:17:31 PM PDT

  •  Michigan (4+ / 0-)

    The Michigan numbers are really disconcerting.  This foreclosure rolls GOP suppression effort, the Kilpatrick ads in the Detroit suburbs (they're going for race war in a state where it could be effective), and the directive from the Secretary of State essentially encouraging poll workers to challenge voters at the polls is a major, major, major problem  This is basically a must win swing state.

    "It may be true that the law cannot make a man love me, but it can keep him from lynching me, and I think that's pretty important." Martin Luther King, Jr

    by Alec82 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:17:53 PM PDT

    •  Michigan worries me the most (5+ / 0-)

      Must have MI. and when you factor in Nader it gets a little worse for us.

      •  Did you read those foreclosure and voter ID.... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        NM Ward Chair

        ...stories? They're going all out to take away MI this year.  And those Kilpatrick ads....they're incindiery.  Granholm was on MSNBC today and it was very, very depressing.  MI should be polling comfortably at the IA levels this year.  It isn't.

        "It may be true that the law cannot make a man love me, but it can keep him from lynching me, and I think that's pretty important." Martin Luther King, Jr

        by Alec82 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:21:28 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Detroit suburbs (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Alec82

      I just read McCain is leading 55-37% in Detroit suburbs, and probably due to Kwame.

      Obama should have denounced Kilpatrick early and strongly.

      •  Those ads.... (0+ / 0-)

        They're vicious.  

        I'm assuming that includes most of Oakland County, which we've pulled off the last two elections?

        "It may be true that the law cannot make a man love me, but it can keep him from lynching me, and I think that's pretty important." Martin Luther King, Jr

        by Alec82 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:22:20 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Oakland and Macomb Counties (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        NM Ward Chair, Alec82, can of corn

        were racist long before the Kwame ads.  Kwame was just an excuse to stop hiding their inner KKK under a bushel basket and let it shine.  If Obama denounced Kilpatrick before his guilt was proven, he risked losing Wayne County, which he can't afford to do.

        And West Michigan doesn't go in for the likes of Palin--they're a different type of religious conservative over there.  Strong beliefs and definitely pro-life, but they don't wear their faith on their sleeve.

        My state will be close, but I believe we'll win it.  Granholm beat DeVos in the governor's race by 14 points here two years ago when the polls showed them tied, and that's with the state bleeding economically even then.

        •  I really hope so (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          loretta

          Washtenaw and Ingham should be incredibly strong for GOTV this year as well.  And thank god the anti-affirmative action initiative was in 06.  

          "It may be true that the law cannot make a man love me, but it can keep him from lynching me, and I think that's pretty important." Martin Luther King, Jr

          by Alec82 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:13:14 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I'm not worried about MI (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      kevinspa, NM Ward Chair, Alec82

      Kerry lost Maccomb county and barely won Oakland County by 3000 votes and still carried the state by 160,000 votes.  Obama will outperform Kerry and win the state relatively easily.  In an election like this, anything above 100,000 votes is a good margin.

      Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

      by khyber900 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:24:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's how I felt a couple days ago (0+ / 0-)

        The polling and watching that Kilpatrick ad, and knowing how close Oakland was in '04, has me a bit worried.

        Plus turnout will be strong on the West coast, courtesy of Palin.  MI is going to be a GOTV ground war.

        "It may be true that the law cannot make a man love me, but it can keep him from lynching me, and I think that's pretty important." Martin Luther King, Jr

        by Alec82 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:27:15 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Kilpatrick ad rebuttal (0+ / 0-)

          why has the obama campaign not posted a strong rebuttal to the kilpatrick ad.

          •  I dunno (0+ / 0-)

            First time I saw the ad was today on the news.  Granholm called it out for what it is, so there's that at least.  But she's certainly not enough.

            "It may be true that the law cannot make a man love me, but it can keep him from lynching me, and I think that's pretty important." Martin Luther King, Jr

            by Alec82 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:38:27 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  and remember that kossack who saw those MI (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              NM Ward Chair, Alec82

              internals that had O by 2 or less?

              That is NOT good news for us.  I think MI is literally 50-50, but trending to be red.

              Remember, the Republicans will love you until you are born!

              by krwlngwthyou on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:46:08 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  It is usually very close (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                NM Ward Chair

                It is essentially a fifty fifty state.  But the problem is that McCain has broad appeal there, there are some serious unresolved racial issues, etc.  This year it looks like GOTV is going to be huge.  An epic ground war.

                "It may be true that the law cannot make a man love me, but it can keep him from lynching me, and I think that's pretty important." Martin Luther King, Jr

                by Alec82 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:48:41 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  Why should Obama play defense? (0+ / 0-)

            Denouncing Kilpatrick at this point is like saying "I didn't do it."  Going on the offense means saying, "McCain is lying about my relationship with Kilpatrick too."

            Even though most Detroit voters are sick to death of Kwame, having an outsider denounce him when a bunch of them voted for him twice might alienate them.  Obama can't afford to lose Wayne County.

          •  I would rather have an outside group (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            NM Ward Chair

            put a response ad. This ad puts the Obama campaign in a bind. It can also be a bait.

          •  Sen. Obama came out strongly. (0+ / 0-)

            Against Kilpatrick the morning he announced his plea agreement. That was an act of supreme courage by Sen. Obama to take on a member of his own party.

            People power = LGBTQ marital rights = OBAMA '08!

            by kevinspa on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 06:56:06 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  MI is going to be a really big fight for us. I (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Alec82

      don't like how its so tight.  They're acting like OH.

      Remember, the Republicans will love you until you are born!

      by krwlngwthyou on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:40:35 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Well the DNC fucked up the primary (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        krwlngwthyou, Micheline

        That was a very stupid first move.  Then there's the matter of how segregated the state actually is, and the fact that McCain is openly playing on those fears.  There's an unpopular state Democratic leadership (but a popular federal delegation).  

        Sigh.  It should be an easy one. Or at least, as easy as PA and easier than IA.

        "It may be true that the law cannot make a man love me, but it can keep him from lynching me, and I think that's pretty important." Martin Luther King, Jr

        by Alec82 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:45:35 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  agreed. No primary may be the thing that brings (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Alec82

          Obama down in the end.  That's why when everybody makes up their little EC map, I always have Obama losing MI and OH and FL while winning CO, IA, and NM...too bad its not enough.

          Remember, the Republicans will love you until you are born!

          by krwlngwthyou on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:47:26 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Too Bad Negativity Works (0+ / 0-)

    Let's get focus to win.  Obama needs to unleash the 527s.  

  •  third party (0+ / 0-)

    are you going to poll with third party candidates too

    Mr. President your instincts aren't good enough. - Joe Biden ~~~~ McCain-Palin will say-do anything to sound like "maverick" reformers - Barack Obama

    by goodacre on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:18:09 PM PDT

    •  Third party canddates (0+ / 0-)

      Tend to underperform their polling numbers, or at least they did in 2004...

      "Polls are like crack, political activists know they're bad for them but they read them anyways."-Unknown

      by skywaker9 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:18:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  so what are their numbers then we can discount (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        skywaker9

        them..... how do they effect McCain or Obama as of now

        Mr. President your instincts aren't good enough. - Joe Biden ~~~~ McCain-Palin will say-do anything to sound like "maverick" reformers - Barack Obama

        by goodacre on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:20:01 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Virtually nil (0+ / 0-)

          Except in specific cases, Paul in MT and ND, Nader might impact Obama in OR if it were really close (but even then I doubt it), stuff like that.

          "Polls are like crack, political activists know they're bad for them but they read them anyways."-Unknown

          by skywaker9 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:23:36 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Maddow flashed (0+ / 0-)

            poll so quick I didn't get a chance to take notes or study it but it didn't look like nil and didn't hear her say where the poll was from.... really only paying half a mind to her tonight she had on Buchanan who I can't stand don't trust and  would like to 'drown in a bathtub ' Norquist quote used out of context ..... feeling pis@#(#&*(sy tonight

            Mr. President your instincts aren't good enough. - Joe Biden ~~~~ McCain-Palin will say-do anything to sound like "maverick" reformers - Barack Obama

            by goodacre on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:19:27 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  North Dakota (4+ / 0-)

    As much as I want Obama to win states like Montana and North Dakota, it never really seemed like more than a wild fantasy. You always had to believe that the large portion of undecideds in those close polls were conservative-leaning folks.

    It's time to back get down to brass tacks.

    Swing State Project: A sexy, sassy look at the 2008 elections. Get a four-digit UID while you still can!

    by HellofaSandwich on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:19:06 PM PDT

  •  Michigan Battleground (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    NM Ward Chair

    the Ohio voter suppression redux but this time in Michigan and using foreclosures to block people from voting.

    Of course, this will affect the AA vote.

    ~ Character Is Beauty ~

    by Quinagin on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:19:11 PM PDT

  •  Obama has succeeded in changing the Media's (8+ / 0-)

    coverage of Palin/McCain.  I watched a lot of different news channels today, and all I saw was pretty good coverage of Obama's statement today and pretty negative coverage of McCain and the GOP's tactics.  

    I've never seen the MSM be this skeptical of the GOP in all the years I've followed politics.  The only exception would be during a particularly embarrassing scandal like Mark Foley, but even there, the focus is often on the individual, not the party or the campaign.

    Matt Damon gave Obama a huge assist today, and his comments made it to EXTRA, a show watched by millions, including Red Staters.  The comments were so clearly stated that it has already shaped the Media narrative of Sarah Palin.

    Every Democratic candidate for office has to face the GOP machine.  They have a unique ability to change the subject and steal your rhetoric.  The successful candidates face down the GOP and reaffirm their credentials to the voters.  I believe Obama cleared that threshold today.  

    I think the country and the media are going to be far more receptive to Obama's message from this point forward.

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:20:12 PM PDT

  •  Is it true that (0+ / 0-)

    pollsters only poll those with a land line and that the majority of younger voters do not have a land line and are therfore not counted ??

    I have heard that this is why McSame is so close to Obama, but the polls do not tell the truth because of this.

    If this is true, then the election should be in the bag.

    If you see me behind you..don't assume I'm following you. We just happen to be going the same way and if you slow down, I'll run over your ass.

    by TKH on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:21:37 PM PDT

    •  I would not bank on that. At all. In fact (0+ / 0-)

      there are many studies that show that not enough people are cell phone only to really make a difference.

      Not to mention, every year we hear the youth will come out, only to be disappointed.

      That's not to say we aren't trying.  We registered voters at my college yesterday.  But don't be fooled.  The youth will not come out like we want them to.  I wouldn't ask them to save the day in this one.  Just sayin'

      Remember, the Republicans will love you until you are born!

      by krwlngwthyou on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:43:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I agree with you to a certain extent (0+ / 0-)

        Have you guys thought about doing early voting so that we can you that as a firewall.

        •  early voting for youth, you mean? I wouldn't say (0+ / 0-)

          that its that...for example, we registered voters yesterday during the primary.

          So literally, they registered AT the polling place.  Then, newly registered, they were asked if they'd like to vote today.

          Most of them said no.

          so, its just..hard.  But we'll keep at it.

          Remember, the Republicans will love you until you are born!

          by krwlngwthyou on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:02:47 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  why is that? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jackieca

        I'm just curious as to why the youth vote never manifests? I grew up fairly a-political, but gosh-darn when I was 18, I started voting.

        Why do you think the younger voters don't follow through?

        •  well, what I hear the most is that "I don't know (0+ / 0-)

          enough about politics"  they feel uninformed.  They feel like they don't "understand it"

          I get that a lot, as though they feel too uninformed to know what to do.

          I also hear the argument that it won't matter, or none of the candidates understand me (but I hear this a LOT less than the "I don't know enough about it to vote")

          Remember, the Republicans will love you until you are born!

          by krwlngwthyou on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:09:52 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Then we have to find a way to target them (0+ / 0-)

            May be do some teach-in about the issues or get a celebrity to speak on campus. With the youth vote you have to appeal to them in creative manner.

            •  which is why I thought it was important that (0+ / 0-)

              MTV allowed political ads (though...I've yet to see any)

              I hope the O camp realizes this is what that demo is watching...

              Remember, the Republicans will love you until you are born!

              by krwlngwthyou on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:23:48 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Commercials on MTV would be great. (0+ / 0-)

                Obama visiting campuses would also be a magnet. From your posts, I get the sense you believe that the Obama campaign has been overconfident about the youth vote, have you told the campaign any of your concerns?

                •  well, I haven't just because I wasn't sure who (0+ / 0-)

                  to contact, and if it would make a difference.

                  But it just seems that something has shifted.  In the primaries, it was like he was a youth magnet.

                  The myspace/MTV debates, he was on youtube, facebook, and all that...he talked a LOT about college, and he talked a LOT about young people.

                  the GE has shifted from that somewhat (understandably) but I think youth are feeling less targeted, which may create a sense of disconnect.

                  Again, its just my opinion.  I can't say this is a problem everywhere.  It may just be in my neck of the woods (for reference, I'm working with Milwaukee college kids)

                  Remember, the Republicans will love you until you are born!

                  by krwlngwthyou on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:36:48 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Well it sounds like the campaign is (0+ / 0-)

                    taking them for granted. I think it would e unwise for the campaign to ignore this block  with Palin aas the VP.

                  •  would Michelle Obama (0+ / 0-)

                    have the same effect, or do you think it needs to be Obama himself? I'd suggest you write a diary about the youth vote and your observations about the shift you've seen and what you think needs to be done - if you have the time. I think it's a very interesting topic and maybe it would get that idea out there.

          •  wow (0+ / 0-)

            I don't know enough - How hard is it to find out something about the presidential election? I mean I can see stepping aside from voting for the judges, etc and saying that, but the presidency, really? Can't someone just find a few big issues they have an opinion about and go with that?

            It won't matter - sooooo wrong it's scary.

            they don't understand me - the arrogance and self absorption of youth, I suppose.

            I shouldn't be surprised. I taught college for years and would always make sure to slip political talk into the class. They were art classes, so no one really blinked. I welcomed all opinions - this was TX. But I always felt very nervous about it - like i was going to get busted or something for bringing up politics. Maybe if we actually encouraged political discourse in our schools, these kids wouldn't feel so uniformed.

            Thanks for your reply!

            •  I agree. I think your point about discourse (0+ / 0-)

              is important.

              I also know a lot of young people who will vote for Obama, but don't want to volunteer or talk about it with their friends because they feel like they don't really know why they're voting for him (if that makes sense.)

              They like him (which,for once the personality thing works in our favor.) And it makes total sense...he knows pop culture: what dirt of your shoulders is, he likes basketball, he's fairly young himself....and so naturally, they're like, ok I want to give this guy a chance.  Its a fairly shallow way to begin, but you know what...it at least opens the door.  And most in my age group are against the war, and have a bad taste for republicans (Bush has been pres. since I was 12, so the idea of being PROUD of a president is very foreign for many of us) so Barack does represent a clean break for a lot of them.

              but even though they like him, and may agree on big issues, they don't feel comfortable in their decisions always.  I'm not quite sure where this comes from.  Maybe its seen as something far too complex and historical?  I'm not sure.  for example, one of my friends doesn't want the war in Iraq to continue.  so Obama has her vote.  But if someone challenged her on that stance, she'd get nervous and just stop talking.  She isn't confident enough in her knowledge of the issues to talk about it publically.  I know a lot of people in her position.

              Remember, the Republicans will love you until you are born!

              by krwlngwthyou on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:34:50 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I can see that (0+ / 0-)

                I didn't really talk much about politics when I was in my early 20's either for the same reason. But I still always voted for the person I wanted (Clinton) despite having a very Republican father and living in a very conservative place - it was a private thing so it was easy.

                So what do you think we can we do to try to get the young voters to actually vote?

  •  What's up with Ohio (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KariQ, NM Ward Chair, math4barack

    I kind of know the answer, conservative rust belt yada yada yada, but still - it's like economic suicide for that state every year they help to vote for a republican president. Then again it is a state that went from a corrupt Republican establishment to a democratic one and voted for Sherrod Brown. So why not Obama?

  •  i dont get Ohio (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    skywaker9, NM Ward Chair, math4barack

    or west virginia (really blue state but voter registration).  these are two states that seem to be hit over the head the most by the current administrations policies.  The definition of insanity is to keep doing the same thing over and over and expect different results

  •  So when IS R2K polling New Mexico, anyways? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    NM Ward Chair

    Might as well resolve the question of whether Rasmussen's result there is accurate.  (Hint, hint.)

  •  Hey you guys (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    skywaker9, TomFromNJ, paintitblue

    Remember, that one time, there was a Democratic primary earlier this year in NC and IN in the same night.

    Yep, that was awesome.

    We still lost Indiana, but just barely and we were all stoked! We can do this!

    In times of universal deceit, telling the truth will be a revolutionary act. ~George Orwell

    by ElizabethAM on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:24:45 PM PDT

  •  Anybody know about R2K... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    skywaker9

    Do they weight polls by party ID or by anything else?

  •  Does Rasmussen break it down by (0+ / 0-)

    Congressional Districts? I would be interested in seeing in which districts (if they even do this) McCain is doing better in in New Mexico.

  •  want to know the real polls? (0+ / 0-)

    watch for an attack on Iran.

    if mccain looks to win it will be postponed.

    if Obama looks to win bush will order a full attack.

    "Do not go where the path may lead, but go instead where there is no path - and leave a trail " -Epicitetus

    by JadeZ on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:29:56 PM PDT

  •  NM and PA #'s (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ElizabethAM, Anarchofascist

    those New Mexico nubmers piss me off, and the PA numbers are a lot closer than I thought they'd be. Pleasantly surprised by the CO numbers.

    NC? Forget it.

    Sigh....
    To think that some folks were babbling about GA being a real possibility.

    But, I'm f'ing THRILLED to see Barack come out swinging a bit today!

    •  I am not surprised by Colorado (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      FuddGate, Footwarrior

      I understand that there is Colorado Springs but I grew up spending summers there and my folks live there now and their is some special about the people there. They are very free spirited and vibrant and love the earth. I love Colorado!!!

      In times of universal deceit, telling the truth will be a revolutionary act. ~George Orwell

      by ElizabethAM on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:33:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  the SUSA NC poll was shit (0+ / 0-)

      Republicans were WAY oversampled.  I'd guess that Obama is down by 4-5 points here.  If Bill campaigns here, McCain's bounce fades, and the turnout operation works as planned, I really think Obama can put it off here.

  •  Montana (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    NM Ward Chair, Micheline

    I live in Montana (in Bozeman) and I feel, alas, that McCain seems to have recieved a bounce. Palin was an inspired pick -- hate it or not (and believe me, I hate it), if McCain wins the election, that's what did it.

    Here's my main concern: Hidden racism. That there is a percentage of people who say they'll vote for Obama but won't. I have no idea if this is 5% or 15%. If it's the higher figure, Obama is sunk. My fear is that McCain does not have this issue -- so that in every poll, you can add a few percentage points for McCain.

    I'm not sure how much this played out in the primary race (though in New Hampshire it seemed to). Anyone have any stats / feelings about this?

    •  I don't doubt that BHO will lose votes (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      NM Ward Chair

      to bigoted Dems in some states(cough cough Ohio), but I don't buy that there's still a "Bradley Effect".  In his narrow defeat in TN, Harold Ford Jr actually beat the poll numbers by a hair.

    •  re: Hidden Racism (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gator Keyfitz

      damn, your comment just made me shutter.  how galling if the MSM storyline the morning after a surprising McCain victory was "hidden racism".

      Remember the "values voters" meme in 2004 that was proven to be bullshit?  Didn't matter it was proven to be bull - it was the storyline for the critical 48hours after the election in which American history was written with GWB winning re-election.

      I don't trust these guys.

      I phonebanked in Florida for 5 hours today.

      DONUT GIVE UP!

  •  These Are the Ones That Matter (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TomFromNJ

    The per-state polls (and their trends) are the ones that matter. If WcCain is indeed ahead of Obama, as the Pollster.com national composite shows, but WcCain has much bigger margins in the states he's winning, leaving Obama with smaller but decisive margins in more electoral votes, then Obama wins.

    The broken Electoral College can work for Democrats as it has worked for Republicans. Maybe then there will be bipartisan agreement on eliminating it. More likely, each party will just fight harder to rule it, since its ultimate importance cannot be disputed.

    "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." - HST

    by DocGonzo on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:31:55 PM PDT

  •  Don't worry about MI, kos, it will be blue. (4+ / 0-)

    My state. I got this.

    "If you want to tell people the truth, make them laugh, otherwise they'll kill you." -- Oscar Wilde

    by wingsnight on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:36:11 PM PDT

  •  Forget Polls! (0+ / 0-)

    Let's just have Obama hug everyone and they will vote for him.

    I'm Jealous!

    In times of universal deceit, telling the truth will be a revolutionary act. ~George Orwell

    by ElizabethAM on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:36:46 PM PDT

  •  I've always said (0+ / 0-)

    that the first presidential election poll to have any meaning is the one conducted one week after the last convention.  The convention polls just measure bounces and rebounds.  Let's see what the polls say on Firday and take it from there.

    Also, bear in mind all the different methodologies in polls.  

  •  Wait a week or two (3+ / 0-)

    Right now the GOP convention bounce is still there. We should get a clearer picture by next week or the week after.

  •  not enocouraging/ woman w no real credentials (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    math4barack
  •  I'd Like To See AZ (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    NM Ward Chair

    I'd like to see how the race shakes out in McSame's home state of Panama Arizona.  I hear that he's faltering in Phoenix from friend who lives there.  Anecdotal evidence is the worst kind since it's such a small sample but he feels a mood swing that's not in McAncient's favor.

    John McCain to his second wife after she teased him about his hair loss: At least I don't plaster on the makeup like a trollop, you c-nt!

    by Dotty Gale on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:42:20 PM PDT

    •  I keep thinking (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Dotty Gale

      Every time McNoEarmarks says "I've never asked for a single cent for my state," I think, well, if he were my senator, I'd be pissed.

      (Although, Arizona is a beneficiary state overall. Maybe he doesn't ask because he knows how much money his state actually gets?) http://www.taxfoundation.org/...

      But the average suburban citizen doesn't know that. They just see roads that need repairs. Schools that don't educate their kids. A border that is porous with drugs being run across it like the express line at the grocery store (actually, faster than the express line at MY grocery store).

      And their senior (much senior) senator is town-halling around the country as pleased as punch that he never asked for a dime for them.

      I wonder what the good folks in Peoria actually think?

      Pit bulls are intelligent, perceptive, funny, loyal, clever animals. I had a pit bull as my best friend... Ms. Palin, you are no pit bull.

      by grover on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:00:15 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Number of registered... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    NM Ward Chair

    ...Democrats are WAY up, and yet they want us to believe the polls?

    No. Propaganda.  Plain and simple.

                      heimatland1

    •  Sorry - I bought this line in 2004 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jackieca, krwlngwthyou

      Dems had this huge advantage in registered voters...more Dems registered then ever before...and then....pffft.

      Sell not virtue to purchase wealth, nor Liberty to purchase power - Benjamin Franklin

      by johninPortland on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 07:54:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The problem is that we have some of the (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        NM Ward Chair

        least reliable voters. Democrats fall do not fall in line as the Repubs. And on top of it the poor do not vote because they do not feel it makes a difference.People in order to maximize turnout we will have to rely on early voting and absentee ballots.

      •  I'm with you (0+ / 0-)

        I hate to say it, I really do, but between the media naritive and these polls, I am beginning to feel a sunk feeling,

        Palin showing up was a baaaad sign, I felt sunk the second I saw her, she is jamming Obamas gears.

        I really hope Obama and his team can fourmulate a strategy to counter this noise, the issues are too important, and when I think about the supreme court, I just want to scream.

        If they turn SCOTUS into a radical right court then maybe America will finnaly wake up for once and for all but as long as we have Rove Schidmt and Davis and the rest of these scumbags running our political campaigns we can expect to be a divided nation.

        I am wishing and praying America gets Obama, a man who is good and decent and can and will repair the awful damage that has been done by Bush-Cheney, God willing.    

  •  Encouraging for our team? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jackieca, cetylovx

    Umm...no, the fact that the race is tied is pretty fucking discouraging, if you ask me.

    The Dem candidate should be at least 10-15 points ahead, not tied.

    Unfortunately, it all comes down to race folks.  Our guy is black, and theirs is white.  That's all that matters to most people.  It's as simple as that.

    Maybe we should have picked Hillary.  I think America will be ready for a white woman president before the country is ready for a black man as president.

  •  comedy for the night (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    NM Ward Chair, can of corn

    http://blogs.reuters.com/...

    PHILADELPHIA - Republican presidential candidate John McCain cut short his first public appearance without running-mate Sarah Palin after chanting supporters of Democratic rival Barack Obama interrupted his speech.

    Guess its hard without your sidekick

  •  How does Obama have an 8+ point lead in (2+ / 1-)
    Recommended by:
    NM Ward Chair, math4barack
    Hidden by:
    cetylovx

    New Mexico a few weeks ago and now McCain is up by 2?  One of these polls is al outlier.  Theres no way McCain got that kind of bounce and I find Rasmussens NM poll very suspect.

    •  Because they have moved the goal post (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      NM Ward Chair

      The polling companies are apparently now polling equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans.  That is why Obama is down in so many polls.  That is NOT a representative sampling of registered voters in this country.

      I refuse to believe any polls these days.  I believe the polling companies are in the bag for the Republicans the same way the MSM is.

    •  Likely voter model, changed partisan id and (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      NM Ward Chair

      house effect. Also, bounce of GOP marketing week. Probably also pushed leaners are. Even with that- its a 2 point race. The hardest thing to do is when you get these numbers to a) put them in perspective and learn to wait when there is  bounce

  •  Hey How About If We Do Our Own Polls? (0+ / 0-)

    Sounds crazy but you think we can have our own pollsters do our own polls?

  •  Only 1 post RNC Ohio poll=Ras (McSame+7), so we (0+ / 0-)

    don't know where Ohio really is.

    Is that poll reliable?

    Is that even where things are right now? No other polls there to confirm that McSame has that kind of lead there right now?

    And, thus, the stronger point:  we don't have any knowledge about where Ohio will be in 1 or 2 weeks. For, if we aren't even sure if that poll is accurate right now combined with the possibility that even if that poll was right it is only a temporary bounce, then we have no reason to be overly pessimistic about how Ohio will look in a couple of weeks when all the dust has settled.

    My gut is that there is now way in H*** that McBush has a lead of 7 in Ohio! There are more democrats than Republicans there, there is more Bush fatigue there than there was in 2004 and thus the economic pain of Ohio is more likely to turn it blue this time around. Even right now it probably is only a McLame lead of 2 or 3. In 2 weeks, I would guess that it would be even or Obama would have the narrowest of leads. It is a true toss-up and neither side will be able to break out with it.

  •  Truth behind the polls (0+ / 0-)

    How do we get to the truth behind the polls.  The polling companies no longer post the data they used for the poll like polling 46% Democrats and 36% Republicans and the remainder Independents.  Several news outlets have said that they refuse to divulge this data but have found that they are polling equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans.  That is moving the goal post and cooking the books.

    How can we fight back when the MSM and the polling companies, all owned by conservative corporations, are trying to throw the election?

  •  Screw the national tracking polls! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jackieca, NM Ward Chair

    Seriously, this is all about electoral votes.  If we can hold Michigan and New Hampshire from what Kerry took in 2004, all we got to do is flip either Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina, or Missouri.  One flip, and we win.  Or we could lose all of those states and still flip Colorado and New Mexico and win this thing.  It isn't as close as it all sounds.  McCain has the work ahead of him.  He has to hold everything Bush won in 2004, that will be tough because Obama is no John Kerry.

    Let's get going and not lose this thing.  NOt this fucking time.  I've had enough.

  •  Ohio, New Mexico, Missouri and Virginia, Obama (0+ / 0-)

    needs 3 out of these 4.

    Forget about North Carolina and North Dakota and Montana. Those states are going to go home--i.e. republican--at the end of the day.

    Florida has been trending in Obama's favor, although he rarely campaigned down here. I think he needs to spend some time down here or send the Clinton(s) because they are very popular with the folks here.

    Certainly, if Obama can get a lead and hold it until November in Ohio, Virginia and Florida, he would be home.

    The problem is that McCain's got some wind in his sails on the national level right now. Obama needs to make sure that momentum does not trickle down to the states.

    He's got a fight on his hands. And this thing is going to be fun to watch.

    Disclaimer: those with mild cardio-vascular conditions should not follow this election. It is pretty bad for your health:-)

    Don't give a damn a/t each & every politician currently alive in the US. Last time i voted for the top part of the ballot was 1972. Never missed SB election

    by Mutual Assured Destruction on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:12:14 PM PDT

  •  I hope this is as good as it will ever get for (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    math4barack

    McCain and Palin

    what would the total result be? McCain will the whole thing?

  •  Florida..and...Ohio.. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jackieca, math4barack

    Here the fuck we go again..I hate those states..

  •  I wish something bigger then Palin (0+ / 0-)

    would come along to knock Palin off the 24/7 fan club media we call news. The media has created a star and this time the star they created is making me nervous, I fear her views, and I fear Mccain as much, for he is not the same mcain I remember from 2000.

  •  Don't forget Indiana (0+ / 0-)

    as another major state in play.

    "Me llamo Iñigo Montoya. Mataste a mi padre. Prepárate a morir."

    by Arroz on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 08:48:54 PM PDT

  •  He picked up the religious right (0+ / 0-)

    This supports the theory that he mainly solidified the religious right vote which was not happy with him.  They probably still aren't but they love Palin.

    The big questions in my mind are: 1) what the effects of third parties especially Barr, 2) are the new voters captured at all in the polling?

  •  No Way. No How...is this race tied. (0+ / 0-)

    Besides what I read here about how some of these polls are over-polling republicans, there's something else going on.

    "All across America there are quiet storms taking place." -Barack Obama

    by Carrie Ann on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:04:30 PM PDT

    •  a lot of (0+ / 0-)

      people (theocrats) who had previously refused to vote for McCain are now on board, with money and energy, because of Ayatollah Palin.

      I know this is a fact in my own neck of the woods (where it won't matter, Obama will still win) but they are motivated and mobilized and it WILL affect downticket races here in Illinois.

  •  The Colorado (0+ / 0-)

    poll is the one I am particularly happy with. After McCain's big bounce Obama still has kept the lead in what is the most critical battleground state for him in my opinion. I think his chances of winning Colorado are greater than his chances for Ohio and Virginia. Having the convention there will work wonders in my opinion.

    The other polls aren't too bad. Obviously he is lost some ground in certain states (Montana for one) but in the one's that are truely critical (Colorado, Ohio, Virginia) he is right there neck and neck where he needs to be at this point. I only see his numbers rising from here on out.

    "Some men see things as they are and say why? I dream things that never were and say why not?"-Bobby Kennedy

    by LeBrandon on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:18:42 PM PDT

    •  convention (0+ / 0-)

      The fact that convention was in denver probably prevented mcCain's bounce be as big as it otherwise would have been.

      If election were held today Obama would have a pretty good chance of losing popular vote and winning election i think.

      •  I think he would (0+ / 0-)

        eek out a popular vote victory as well. We forget he still has a better grassroots organization, a better financed campaign, the right stances on the issues that Americans care about, and he has still out registered Republicans by huge margins. The GOTV efforts of his campaign have been outstanding.

        "Some men see things as they are and say why? I dream things that never were and say why not?"-Bobby Kennedy

        by LeBrandon on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 09:42:56 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Now get out and VOLUNTEER! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    NM Ward Chair

    We need all hands on deck! No slacking off now.

  •  Hey, Kos: while you're crunching numbers ... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    NM Ward Chair, can of corn

    ...maybe you should get your head out and see what's coming:

    The Las Vegas Trial of O.J. Simpson is going to compete for "air time" with the election, these next 55 days, and you should know what is going to be planted in the MSM's pictures, going from one story to the next:

    It's gonna be Obama=OJ.  One black man gets off, and the other black man becomes President.  

    It's going to be subtle, it's going to be 'way "Rovian," and it ain't gonna be pretty.

  •  Indiana (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Arroz

    I know Indiana is typically red, but I know some polls have come out saying Obama with a slight lead or slight defecit. I live in Northwest Indiana and we have a great operation up here. We were solid for Obama in the primary because of all the offices and the operation in place. I think that with increased GOTV efforts here in the Chicago media market of Northwest Indiana, he may be able to pull one out here. I'm not saying throw a bunch of money into things here, I know that there are many other states the campaign needs to focus on, but Indiana may be one he can steal. I'd be interested to see a solid poll from Indiana soon.

    •  Doubt it (0+ / 0-)

      Family is from Indiana originally. It is deep,deep bible belt, thought not of the speaking in tongues variety.

    •  Hoosier hey (0+ / 0-)

      I've seen what's going on in Southern Indiana, especially Bloomington and New Albany.  Last time I was back, they were opening offices in Jeffersonville, Columbus, and even Salem (population 6,172).

      The Bloomington office registered 800 voters on IU's campus the first day students got back.  This is a seriously understated battleground state.  And while Obama is putting in the big money, here's what McSame has gotten started.

      "Me llamo Iñigo Montoya. Mataste a mi padre. Prepárate a morir."

      by Arroz on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 05:42:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Tomorrow is only a day away (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    auditor

    I am a new voter and very concerned that this sick crapola the McCain camp has been running with since Palin's emergence. Everyone says "What are you doing to help" and the fact of the matter is, I don't know what to do. Can someone post a primer of what someone can do to help? I don't have a lot of money because I'm a student so that's not really in my ballpark at the moment but I am able bodied. Also, I live in New York City and this is squarely Obama-land so ideally I'd like to get some pointers on how to help in swing states etc. Thanks a lot in advance.

  •  Interesting computer analysis (0+ / 0-)

    For computer geeks like me, here is a site that has an interesting analysis using statistics from various polls

    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/...

  •  To the all the pee-pee pants up thread. (0+ / 0-)

    First one to break shieldlock will get a pike in the back from your own captain.

    Steady, now . Ignore that trickle down your leg. It's just a little pee-pee.
    When you hear those barbarians screaming as they descend the hill, stand still and wait in formation. Plant your feet for cripes sake!
    This is a battle for the free world!
    Imagine this, knave at arms. Imagine the crusty, assymetricly bejowled Old McCoot withing spittting distance of Obama on a worldwide stage . Imagine that Obama just beats him a little bit in the televised debate. The visual meme alone will amplify the contrast , for the first time, in a way that Boobis Americanus (stolen from Mencken) can digest. This will be a modern Nixon-Kennedy debate moment, McCains creepy smile and age will be like Nixon's sweaty pits. Obama will gain a 5  point aggregate lead by  Tuesday Oct 2 and will have turned Ohio back to blue and be up 3 in Florida.
    You heard it here.
    Now stop yer cryin.

  •  Missouri loves company (0+ / 0-)

    Obama is within 5, which I actually consider very good. Definitely winnable. We could use some Illinois volunteers. If you live in Springfield, come down and volunteer in St. Louis! If we can get out the vote, Obama will win Missouri.

    The cruelties and the obstacles of this swiftly changing planet will not yield to obsolete dogmas and outworn slogans.

    by charliestl on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:21:40 PM PDT

  •  When do we see the kos polls? n/t (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    can of corn
  •  the state polling isn't disastrous (0+ / 0-)

    but "pretty encouraging" is not how I would describe it. "Mixed", at best, and the Rasmussen poll from NM yesterday was the most worrying state poll for quite some time in my opinion. It's only a single poll so we can't yet read too much into it but Obama's prospects of getting to 270 would be pretty bleak if he can't pick up NM. Given the polling trends this year his most plausible route to a minimum win is to hold the Kerry states and add NM + IA + virtually any other swing state (worth 5 EV or more). If he doesn't take NM then he would need IA + 10 EV, meaning either one of the bigger ones (VA, OH, or FL) or two smaller ones (e.g. CO + NV). Not impossible, but this is the sort of scenario where the odds start to favour McCain.

  •  Montana (0+ / 0-)

    Just read an article in NYT by Dan Schur on how the Rocky Mountain West and Southwest may be in play if the campaign can appeal to 'upscale suburban voters'.
    I also just got off the McClatchy site on Ron Paul. I am from northwest Montana and there is strong sentiment here in Flathead, Lake and possibly Lincoln counties for Ron Paul. I don't know if this block of votes along with Missoula and urban areas of Montana could shift the state from the Republican prairie east of the state. But Ron Paul, from my understanding, is still on the ticket here. And what the Obama campaign needs is it's connection to middle age as well as middle america. One would also wonder if there are not similar demographics in the southwest.

  •  LandlinePolls ignore NEW DEMS: Not Likely voters (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    can of corn

    The only info they have for whether you are likely to vote is past voting behavior, so they ignore new registrants.

    The dems have registered millions of new voters, who are not polled at all.

    Don't know if they have limited polling to Landline voters as before..  Does anybody know???

    people have a wrong idea of what constitutes true happiness. It is not attained through self-gratification, but...fidelity to a worthy purpose.Helen Keller

    by dosaybe on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 05:09:51 AM PDT

  •  When I see the numbers showing McCain ahead (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kevinspa

    all I can think is, either this state is full of morons or full of racists.

  •  Confident that NH will go blue (0+ / 0-)

    just as it did in 2004. I think the non-local media and political bugs simply don't "get" New Hampshire. It will never fall in line as a "red state" or "blue state". NH's mentality simply doesn't fit within any party's lines. Their reasons for going red in '00 are different than the rest of the real red states -- which explains why they went red-to-blue in '04. They'll go blue again in '08, I am confident. At the end of the day, quirky NH is New England blue, it simply has a number of sensibilities that have tended to be reddish.  I don't think any (well, maybe a few) of NH's reasons for ever going red are things that Dems couldn't get behind.

    Terrorists can attack freedom, but only Congress can destroy it.

    by romulusnr on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 11:17:38 AM PDT

  •  Intrade has McCain 52 vs Obama 48 (0+ / 0-)

    in the political futures market

    best predictor of money can (and does) buy

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