So we just watched the last State of The Union Address from the O'man before the coming 2012 election year. Read below for my summary of what I think went right and what went wrong during the first term of the Obama presidency. For most of you this is hardly news but I tried to summarize the most important issues that defined the last three years.
Most of us here quickly adjusted to our 170 IQ guy being the POTUS. The years of Bush seem like a distant past but I would like to remind you that it was less than 4 years ago when we heard his final stupid flap regarding the Czech embassy attache.
I was happy that the acceptance speech by Barack wasn't peppered with phony claims of 'a mandate' even though he clearly got one. His promise to serve all Americans was received cynically by the Republican party (anyone still remember that term?) but many pieces of progressive legislation did get passed despite Dems' lack of filibuster proof majority.
Yesterday marked the day our military operations in Afghanistan were drawn to an end although UN peacekeeping troops are likely to be stationed there for another five years. Since the withdrawal of the remaining US troops from Iraq the year before proved to be a non event there was far less Conservative scare mongering even though Fox pundits still blamed the aid workers incident in Kabul on Obama's "concessionist" Middle Eastern policy. However, they lost all credibility on the issue when then "Jewish/Palestinian reconciliation program" and the Middle East Stabilization Talks proved a resounding success all around. The 2011 tear down of the Jerusalem wall was not as spectactular as the collapse of the Berlin wall of 1989 nonetheless the image of the massive concrete barrier coming down will forever be the crowning achievement of Obama's foreign policy efforts.
The education reform program initiated at the onset of Obama's presidency has born out so so results so far but the Dems claim that it wasn't given enough time to show its effect. Obama's enlightened approach to sex education however (mostly scrapping those pathetic 'abstinence only' programs) has shown nearly immediate results with teen pregnancy and std rates plummeting by 23% and 11% respectively compared with the 2008 figures. Those numbers are hard to ignore even by the TAC theocrats alas most of those guys live in an alternate reality and generally remain unencumbered by pesky things like facts and figures.
The economy is still healing from its Bushonomics years but there are clear signs of the light at the end of the tunnel. First and foremost is the reduced trade deficit which was nearly at a break even point last year. The strong exports in the American economy haven't come from the energy sector but rather from biotech and medical services. The genome sequencing breakthrough of 2010 which allowed most people to have their complete DNA seuqenced for less than $5,000 created an explosion of biotech startups working on genetic cures for everything from cancer to male pattern baldness. Some are saying that we are on the verge of creating another economic bubble while others maintain that more competition with the big pharma and med services can only help the American (and the international) patient. Obama's tough new FDA standards are also doing part in keeping us healthy but that's beside the point.
The American biotech and medical sectors saw their largest growth ever followed closely by... the financial services. The market regulation package passed in early 2009 proved to be a confidence boosting force far in excess of Paulson's "bailout plan" which was also overhauled in '09. The bailout bill was put to rest last year as most companies weren't participating anyway. The additional enforcement and audit requirements deterred enough crooked execs from doing the quick run on the treasury which everyone feared in 2008. Two years on and the results are here for all to see. The claims of America's decline as the world's financial superpower were laughably premature.
What Obama obviously hasn't been able to do is eliminate budget deficits. This is now the Conservatives' favorite talking point and they are conveniently forgetting that Obama's budget deficit for 2011 is 1/3 that of Dumbya (remember him?) and as a fraction of the GDP it is even smaller than that. Obama promises to cut spending again in 2012 although Conservatives doubt it claiming calling him the "sugar daddy" of America. Nobody takes them very seriously however, given that we had only three quarters of economic decline following the financial market collapse of 2008. And it's obvious to everyone that most of the recent growth happened only thanks to the government programs initiated at the start of his presidency. The opening of the first high speed rail system last week was a good way of underscoring how the latest job boom was initiated.
Housing prices never recovered from the 2008 slump although the worst appears to be behind us. This year and in the last quarter of 2011 a modest gain was posted in existing and new home prices. The upside of this is that many first time home buyers are having a better time shopping for a home and they are mostly driving the increased sales rather than the flippers and the multiple dwelling owners who drove up the prices in 2005.
Following the GM/Chrysler merger which meant more grief for the economy of Michigan, the Democrats' Green Power Initiative proved to be just the rescue wheel that Detroit needed. The success of the GM Volt and their GO (Gas Optional) platform cannot be overstated. Not only is GM finally able to license its technology to Toyota (rather than the other way around) but from the PR perspective the GM green shift has become a runaway success. GM is finally able to attract the environment conscious young buyers as well as retain the traditional GM customer base. Despite GM's enormous trouble in meeting the demand for the Volt they are promising to introduce a GO based car in every market segment starting October 2012.
The cellulosic biofuels program is starting to kick in this year and is receiving mixed reviews from some experts. While most agree that cellulosic ethanol is the only way to make the fuel practical there is inherent resistance from the farming community which is trying to protect the corn ethanol subsidies program. As we all know the program is going to expire quickly in favor of the cellulosic ethanol tax benefit which kicked in at the beginning of 2012 and will be further expanded in 2013. This issue makes Obama less popular in Iowa compared to his runaway support there in 2008 but he's still forecasted to win the midwest by a comfortable margin.
Since this is going to be a true three party race there is no telling how the vote will go other than the first place. Given Obama's popularity being at his all time high of 63%, the non-event that is going to be this November election means that Obama can focus on policy projects even in the election year. Since the splinter of the Republican party into the Conservatives of Mitt Romney and the True America Coalition led by Sarah Palin most Democratic seats are safe and Obama's presidential re-election bid is in no danger whatsoever. The more interesting question is whether Palin will pull an upset over Mitt Romney who is currently pollling 6 percentage points ahead of her. Either way neither of them is likely to crack 30% in popular vote and 70 electoral votes. Meanwhile Obama has masterfully turned the Democratic party into what he calls the "Unity Coalition for America's Future" by picking a record number of moderate Republicans for his administration and thus driving an even deeper wedge into the now defunct GOP while cementing the perception of Democrats as the true Centrist party in American politics. Pundits call it "the natural governing body" because it's pretty much devoid of extremist undercurrents that divided the America politics in the early 21st century.
The only dowside that I see in all this is that the public's interest in the election is substantially lower compared to 2008 and 2004 given that the outcome is all but determined barring any 'dead girl/live boy' sort of revelation everything is likely to look very similar come January 2013.
Yet for the GenX'ers like myself who still remember the 'interesting times' of Bush years all too well, the boring political and international landscape of Obama's 2008-2011 years suits me just fine thankyouverymuch. Too bad about kos and his ad revenue, hehe. I don't think he ever approached his October 2008 figures but I bet he's not too unhappy about that.