Now that the election is (mostly) over, I've been thinking about how we decide who to vote for and why it matters. I've read a lot of articles about how we are now a center-left nation. Other articles state that we are a center-right nation and that the current Democratic victories are an aberration caused by economic distress and the unpopularity of the Bush Administration.
I believe that this nation has made huge progressive strides in recent years. We are now, and will continue to be, a center-left nation, but that is a very recent phenomena. Follow me below the fold, where I'll write more about how we decide who to vote for and what that means for the present and future of America.
Many people think that Americans vote based on issues, like abortion, guns, or health care. I strongly disagree. Instead, people vote their values. There are simply too many issues for most people to understand. Instead, people vote based on whether they feel that a politician shares their values. This means that campaigns need to talk about values and leave the details of their policies to their website. Obama did a very good job of this in his campaign.
I believe that people vote based on their values in five categories. Those categories are:
1. Class
2. Gender
3. Race
4. Religion
5. Individual vs. State Power
I'll talk about each of these in order.
1. Class.
Do you believe that the poor are poor because they are lazy or unworthy? Do you believe that government policies should be tilted to the rich or to the middle class? Most Americans believe economic policies should be tilted to the middle class and everyone deserves a fair chance. Class issues held together FDR's New Deal Coalition, and the American public today supports progressive legislation on class issues, same as it did back then. However, many Americans have progressive class values but vote for Republicans based on their conservative values in other categories.
2. Gender
Do you believe that men and women are equal? Do you believe that men and women need to fulfill "traditional gender roles"? Do you believe that men and women should receive equal pay for equal work? Most Americans believe that women should be treated fairly at work, and should have the right to work or not work as they please. Most people do NOT believe that "a woman's place is in the home". A majority of women of working age work outside the home and that's seen as the norm. Women are even gaining more education than men. In other words, most Americans have progressive values on gender issues.
3. Race
Do you believe that people of all races are equal? Do you believe that Blacks, Latinos, and Native Americans are responsible for their relative poverty compared to Whites? Do you believe that interracial marriage is OK? Every year, more Americans believe in racial equality. This can be seen in the percentage of Americans that approve of interracial marriage; approval of interracial marriages has steadily increased from 4% in 1958 to 43% in 1983 to 77% today. Americans are still split on racial issues, but on this issue America is changing for the better. Obviously, Obama's election shows real progress on racial issues.
4. Religion
Do you believe in the separation of church and state? Do you believe that Christians are better than non-Christians? Do you believe that the law should be based on conservative Christianity? Or, do you believe that law should be based on values that are not explicitly part of one religion or another? Religion is still a tough issue in America, and most Americans are both Christian and believe that Christians are better than other Americans by virtue of their religion. This is changing, however, as fewer Americans are Christian and fewer American Christians have a dogmatic view of religion. However, we will be fighting the religious right in America for a long time.
5. Individual vs. State Power
How strongly do you believe in the individual guarantees of the United States Constitution? Do these guarantees apply to both citizens and non-citizens in peacetime and wartime? Do people in other countries have rights against the wishes of the United States government? Is there an implied right to privacy in the US Constitution? As we have seen over the last few years, issues having to do with the rights of individuals against the state have been the toughest for progressives. In the aftermath of 9/11, conservatives passed the disgraceful Patriot Act. The Bush Administration also set up gulags around the world to torture prisoners and hold them without trials. It's awful, but the Bush Administration has gotten public support for all but the most horrible of their abuses. And 40%+ of the American public supports the use of torture (and yes, I understand the irony of conservative Christians supporting torture given the crucifixion of Jesus, but the facts are what they are). We progressives need to do a better job convincing Americans that the rights of individuals, both here and around the world, need to be protected.
So, to summarize, here are the American people's average attitudes about the five major values above:
1. Class: progressive
2. Gender: progressive
3. Race: moderate
4. Religion: moderate/conservative
5. Individual vs. State Power: conservative
Now that we have a system for understanding why people vote how they do, we can use this system in several ways. First, this system tells give ideas on how Democrats should govern. First impressions matter, and Democrats should govern from class issues ("it's the economy, stupid!") outwards, leaving issues that deal with religion and individual vs. state power last. We should try and move the country in a progressive direction in all of these categories, but politicians gain political capital by starting where the country agrees with you and then moving towards issues to where there party is less popular.
The same is true for Republicans as well. Bush was successful in passing many of his priorities because he moved quickly to a "war" footing and worked to curtail individual liberties after 9/11. His measures were very popular; the Patriot Act was only opposed by one senator, Russ Feingold, and 66 representatives.
Also, this system allows us to understand why some voters vote Democratic or Republican, even if they hold some views strongly at odds with their chosen party. A few years ago, Thomas Frank wrote the book, "What's the Matter with Kansas?", detailing how Kansans vote Republican even though it was against their economic interest. However, those Kansans' votes look more logical if we note that most of them aren't unionized (and so have less stake in maintaining union power) and they are very religious and want tenets of their religion (like opposition to abortion) to be enshrined in law. So, those Kansans vote their values as much as the rich, who actually voted for Obama this election (Obama won those making more than $200K 52-46). One presumes that enough of those making more than $200K/year felt that their views on gender, race, religion, and individual rights were more important to them then their views on class.
Lastly, this system helps describe where we are going as a country, and how it related to the political histories of other industrialized countries. It's a well-known fact that homogeneous countries tend to have more redistribution than heterogeneous countries (like the US). This is because in heterogeneous countries, conservatives can exploit the differences in race and religion to pass conservative economics policies. Of course, in those countries that have some form of proportional representation, there are parties that support conservative policies on race and religion and relatively progressive policies on class issues.
At the same time, we become more progressive as a country as we become more religiously and racially diverse. In the latest election, only 74% of the electorate was White, and Obama won nonwhite voters by a 80-18 clip. Even more to the point, this nation is becoming less White every year – as Latinos and Asian immigrants become citizens they will make this country MUCH more progressive on racial issues even if Whites don't change. However, younger Whites seem to be much more progressive on racial issues than older ones, probably because more people grow up in integrated schools and integrated neighborhoods. Also, every year this country becomes more secular, further eroding the Republican base.
Overall, the future is bright for progressives. We just need to stay involved and make America the country we've always wanted it to be.