There is one element to the modern campaign that is so new most campaign veterans are still trying to adjust, and that is the explosion in early voting. In my first entry in this series, Campaign Manuals, I suggested some commonly available books about election campaigns. One drawback of these books is their failure to discuss the importance of the absentee voter.
You not only need to know who votes, the subject of the last entry, you need to know when people vote. Absentee voting is a growing trend across the nation, and many states are easing the restrictions on absentee voting. (For simplicity, "absentee voting" and "early voting" both refer to any voting that occurs before Election Day.) Assuming that you can wait until the final month to start campaigning is foolish.
Check with your local election official and learn the rules for absentee voting as well as the participation rates in your campaign. A race where voting starts 30 days out and 2/3 of the votes are cast early has a different dynamic than one where voting starts two weeks early and only 10% vote absentee. However, I would also urge you to pay attention to election laws and campaign trends. About seven or eight years ago, California changed its laws so that anyone could sign up as a permanent absentee voter. As a result, absentee voting in my part of the state has nearly tripled in the last decade.
Not too long ago, you would build your campaign to ensure that each voter was contacted adequately by Election Day. A small race (say for city council or county board), might start campaigning Labor Day, and not send any mail until mid-October. That's no longer the case. In many areas, the percentage of people voting absentee is now so high that you must start your campaign early enough to communicate your message before the absentee voting period begins. In my county, nearly 75% of the vote in a local election is now absentee, and fully half of all voters are now signed up as permanent absentee voters. They will automatically have their ballot mailed to them every election. If you don't reach them before they vote, you're toast.
I have seen two approaches campaigns have taken to the rise of absentee voting. One is to accelerate your entire campaign so that you have reached every voter and communicated your complete message to everyone by the first Tuesday in October (or whenever absentee voting begins). However, most campaigns I have worked with construct what amount to two parallel campaigns.
The target universe of voters is subdivided between those who are likely to vote absentee and likely Election Day voters. If your county registrar's records indicate those who vote absentee, my rule of thumb is to assume that a person who has voted absentee 2 of the last 4 elections is likely to do so again, and put them with the early voting group. For early voters, the focus isn't Election Day but Absentee Day, the day early voting begins, and you must reach them by that time.
Say your campaign plan includes one complete round of precinct walks, with a second walk to undecided voters; two rounds of phone calls; and five pieces of mail. You have to start your precinct walks & phone banks early enough to complete your field program for early voters by Absentee Day, which may mean starting your volunteers in August. (Don't forget the bottled water!) You need to start your mail program early as well, and you may choose to mail some pieces to every voter at the same time, and other pieces to absentee voters in September and poll voters in October. You may design seven or eight pieces, with early voters getting different pieces than the Election Day voters. Or, you may choose to send your three best pieces before Absentee Day, and then send #4 and #5 in October to the remaining voters. The important rule is this: start early enough for your message to reach absentee voters before they start voting. Adapting to the new reality of early voting may well mean the difference on Election Day. In my county, the number of candidates who have "won" among Election Day voters only to lose the election grows with every campaign cycle. Don't become another statistic.