In a repeat of their 2006 move, the DPRK has launched seven missiles on the 4th of July. The launch was confirmed this morning by the Republic of Korea's Defense Ministry, after reports of the launches by the Yonhap news agency. The story hasn't been much in the U.S. news yet, though it has been picked up by ABC in this story and somewhat later by other outlets such as MSNBC.
Follow me over the fold for details and a quick analysis.
Here's the gist of the ABC story:
North Korea fired seven ballistic missiles on Saturday, South Korea's defense ministry said, in an act of defiance toward the United States that further stoked regional tensions already high due to its nuclear test in May.
South Korea's Yonhap news agency said the missiles test-fired were "Scud-type," marking an escalation of recent saber-rattling by the reclusive North, which has fired several non-ballistic, short-range missile since the May 25 nuclear test.
So what on earth are the North Koreans up to? That is the question often asked about the DPRK and seldom answered in a satisfactory way. Indeed, it may well not have an answer that makes much sense to people outside of that rather reclusive nation. The possibilities, however, are not so broad that they preclude all analysis, so let's take them in turn.
The first and most obvious is that this is a repeat of past DPRK saber rattling for the purpose of pressuring both China and the west into more extensive aid to the country rather than carrying through with the increased sanctions regime recently approved by the UN. This is an idea with some merit, though it may be only a partial explanation at best. With the new sanctions, the DPRK has been cut off from the one thing it requires to support its people: foreign financial connections. Without some access to currency exchange and foreign credit they cannot in any real sense trade with other nations, not even their southern brethren or China (their main partners) and are left in a very tight spot. The country has been unable to support itself for years now, even in basic foodstuffs much less in fuel or other necessities. Given that they've been paid off in the past for exactly this kind of activity, it presents itself as a plausible reason for the renewed version.
That alone, however, is not a fully satisfactory answer. The problem is that this has been a strategy with diminishing returns in recent years. The growing impatience of China with such "temper tantrum" displays has been seen in their reactions and the relatively tough line they've taken in the last round of the Six Party talks over the DPRK nuclear program (which, unlike the illusory Iranian program, is an established fact since May.) With China approving the recent set of UN sanctions, it seems unlikely that the primary goal of these launches is simply to get more aid or to restore access to world financial contacts alone.
The second possibility is that this is the internal paranoia of the Kim Jong-il regime expressing itself. This is, of course, an old theory regarding the DPRK and some of the country's less explicable behaviors. While it sounds good (or at least easy) on the surface, it's the least credible idea that's been floated for the simple reason that it would essentially require the entire DPRK leadership to be pathologically insane. While the country is certainly in the grip of some very odd ideological ideas, that does not translate into mass (or even leadership) insanity on the scale necessary for this kind of bellicosity. It is possible that a more normal form of paranoia is at work, but that doesn't fit well with launching missile tests like this. It's been supposed that this may be a set of warnings designed to prevent invasion or other direct action against the DPRK, but with the end of the Bush administration this is an argument that seems outdated and is unlikely to be a part of the explanation. Simply put, they're under less of a threat, so there's no reason even for a relative paranoid to increase that threat by bellicose action.
The most plausible reason advanced recently has been the one I find most compelling; that this is an internal propaganda effort that actually has very little to do with any nation other than the DPRK. Two things has been rumored for some time that now seem to be coming together. First, Kim Jong-il has not been seen by observers in several months. While the regime is always secretive, Kim himself has been the most public part of it since his accession to power on his father's death. Now, he has disappeared from sight, with only a few indeterminate photos of him released. It has been thought that he may have suffered a stroke or other health problem, but solid information is impossible to get and the regime has quashed all attempts at proving or disproving the speculation. It may well be that Kim is incapacitated or even dead. Second, Kim's successor is far from clear, at least as far as can be seen from outside the regime. Kim has three sons by two different mothers, one of whom (Kim Jong-nam, the eldest at 38) was born to his estranged first mistress. His younger two sons were both born to his second and far more favored mistress, but are young to be stepping into a leadership role (Kim Jong-chul is 28 and Kim Jong-un is 25.) The real problem is that all three of Kim's sons are virtually unknown quantities, as are the levels of support any of them might have as their father's successor.
It is this question of succession that may point the way to the real purpose behind these tests and the internal propaganda effect. If Kim is dead or incapacitated, then the regime is in a very delicate position. The entire ideology of the DPRK is a personality cult built around Kim's father and himself. His sons have not been prominent in this way, possibly because Kim himself is (or was) relatively young for a world leader (he would currently be 68) and did not yet prepare a successor in the personality cult. The only signs that have been seen of this are very recent, when his youngest son was first referred to with a patriotic nickname (as he and his father have been.) It may well be that there is an internal power struggle under way that has not yet resolved itself and the contenders are trying to keep outside interference at bay. It may also be that they have no choice, even if the power struggle is resolved: without Kim they must construct a new center for the personality cult regardless of who the successor is. Add in to this that Kim may have left his inner circle with no real direction on this and the situation begins to make sense. The regime may well fear that without bellicose action to bind the nation together behind the regime, any change of leadership will sweep them all from power along with the underlying DPRK ideology (which they doubtless believe in.)
The final piece of evidence that lends some credence to this whole scenario is the nature of the current missile launch. If the reports are correct, then the missiles used are of an obsolete type for the DPRK. They traveled only about 250km, which would tend to indicate an old SCUD varient, possibly the SCUD-B or -C, which are both in about that capability range. These are not even the best SCUDs that the DPRK has, much less the most advanced missiles in their arsenal (both the Taepodong and Rodong series are much more sophisticated.) The use of such outdated technology tends to indicate that this is a "test" with no military or even external purpose.
So what can we expect to see if this admittedly tenuous speculation into the purposes of the DPRK is correct? Several things should follow: no serious return to the Six Party talks, a continued bellicosity that poses no apparent actual threat to anyone, no direct signs of any leader, and continued military build-up on the DPRK/South Korea border. It is entirely possible that this is not the correct assessment, since it is built on very little (though the only available) evidence and the semi-learned guesses of yours truly. It is, though, not an idea that should cause us too much concern in the west. If the DPRK is really distracted with an internal succession struggle then they will not be much of a threat to anyone else, at least in the near-term.
And for that, we can all be thankful on this July 4th and for many days to come.
UPDATE: Diary rescue? Wow, just wow. Thanks to all and enjoy.