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I'm on record as predicting Marco Rubio will prevail over Florida Gov. Charlie Crist in their state's Republican Senate primary. More quarters like this last one, and I'll have serious egg on my face.

Crist announced Thursday that in just 50 days he raised an eye-popping $4.3 million for his U.S. Senate campaign. That not only dwarfs the previous Florida U.S. Senate fundraising record set by Republican Mel Martinez -- $1.7-million in his first fundraising period in 2004 -- but it highlights the huge hurdles for Crist's Republican Senate rival Marco Rubio, who raised just $340,000 in the same period.

That Crist number is the largest I've seen of anyone, anywhere this quarter. Rubio will never match Crist, but $340K is pretty pathetic for someone who seems to be growing a legitimate grassroots movement.

You want to build credibility as a challenger to an establishment, candidate, this is how you do it:

U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak plans to report this week that he raised a little more than $1 million in the second quarter this year, giving him $4.2 million in the bank for an expected Democratic primary challenge to Sen. Arlen Specter, campaign officials said yesterday.

"We believe this means we will have more cash on hand than any Senate challenger," said Joe Langdon, spokesman for Sestak's campaign committee. "As you know, this was achieved without the institutional support of the Democratic establishment."

It's not too late for Rubio, with his primary still 13 months away. As for Sestak, we've got a real race on our hands assuming he decides to run. Sure, Specter has about $8M in the bank, but we can work with a 2-1 disadvantage. We've done it several times before -- the grassroots magnifier is better than 2-1. Unfortunately for Rubio, it's not going to overcome a 13-1 cash deficit.

By the way, isn't it perfect that Netroots Nation is in Pennsylvania this year? A bit of nostalgia trivia -- Sestak attended the very first YearlyKos in Las Vegas back in 2006, back when he was an underdog candidate for a tough House seat against an entrenched incumbent Republican. Here he is now, an underdog candidate for a tough Senate seat against an entrenched incumbent Republican Democrat Republican who the heck knows.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 10:26 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Crist will Win the Rep. Primary for Senate. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    econlibVA, surfdog, blue aardvark

    No way he loses to this unknown Rubio guy.

    "It's like they take pride in their own ignorance or something." - B. Obama

    by kefauver on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 10:28:18 AM PDT

    •  not so sure, primary voters are different (0+ / 0-)

      and in that regard Rubio could count with the two solid blocks in FL the cuban viejitos and the xtianist.

      There is also Crist alledge "issues*" that a cornered Rubio or his followers could use to hurt Crist's chances in the primaries.

      There is a long time yet before the primaries to count Rubio out

      "First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win." -- Mahatma Gandhi

      by IamTheJudge on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 11:02:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That is True. There is Time Left for Sure. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        IamTheJudge, The Simple Canadian

        I'm just thinking in terms of Crist's popularity and money-raising abilities. Of course, things could change over the next several months.

        "It's like they take pride in their own ignorance or something." - B. Obama

        by kefauver on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 11:08:34 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  When I did my calculations for '06 and '08... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        IamTheJudge

        ...I put the multiplier for grassroots as high as 3.5x.  

        But, re Rubio v Crist, Huckabee was way behind in fundraising throughout, and he did just fine.  If Florida's a closed primary and whatever reddies there are are rabidred, Rubio wins with just enough money to have yardsigns printed.

        We hold these truths to be self-evident that all heterosexuals are created equal and are endowed by their Creator to certain inalienable rights; gays however...

        by ultrageek on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 11:09:15 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  great point (0+ / 0-)

          but he does need to step up on the money front(which i believe will happen as we go forward)

          i don't mind if arlen remains the senior senator from pennsylvania IF the voters in the DEMOCRATIC primary choose him BUT until then...........

          by primaryarlen on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 11:48:31 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  YOU DON'T KNOW THAT (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      kefauver

      in a closed primary, only the wingiest of the nuts partake

      i don't mind if arlen remains the senior senator from pennsylvania IF the voters in the DEMOCRATIC primary choose him BUT until then...........

      by primaryarlen on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 11:46:18 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Good Point. Didn't think About That. (0+ / 0-)

        "It's like they take pride in their own ignorance or something." - B. Obama

        by kefauver on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 12:08:35 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Look at Crist's Personality and Charisma (0+ / 0-)

        Versus no-name Rubio, though. It might be a closed primary, and that could play a factor if Crist slips up, but I doubt Crist blows it. The guy won the Governorship of Florida by going through a closed primary, no? So this is different how? The "Club for Growth" has been 0 for a gazillion lately. I doubt its luck changes much.

        "It's like they take pride in their own ignorance or something." - B. Obama

        by kefauver on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 09:39:50 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Rubio is NOT unknown (0+ / 0-)

      He made a name for himself in Fl, fighting for the "little guy" in the battle for increases in property taxes.

      I get emails from Rubio regularly, hardly any from Crist...he seems to be much more aggressive.

      This is what Rubio just sent out

      "in a recent poll of Republicans who were familiar with both, Crist – who otherwise enjoys a 28-point lead – was favored by only two points, 33-31"

      http://www.tboblogs.com/...

      •  Polls, Shmolls. (0+ / 0-)

        Sorry, never heard of him until lately and I doubt many Floridians have heard of him either. Name recognition is on Crist's side.

        "It's like they take pride in their own ignorance or something." - B. Obama

        by kefauver on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 09:41:55 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Sounds to me like party insiders want... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Sherri in TX, JML9999, thethinveil

    Crist for President in 2012.

    The economics of health care is easy. It's only the politics that are hard.
    -- Paul Krugman, Princeton NJ, 6/18/2009

    by Jimdotz on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 10:28:23 AM PDT

  •  Um (4+ / 0-)

    Unfortunately for Crist, it's not going to overcome a 13-1 cash deficit.

    I think you mean "Unfortunately for Rubio," no?

  •  In fairness (4+ / 0-)

    Even if Rubio upset Crist, race would still at best be a tossup for Democrats.  On the other hand, Republicans would have to use plenty of money in FL that they could use elsewhere.

    •  I have a feeling that Meek is going to lose anywa (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mjd in florida

      Against Rubio or Crist.

      They tortured people to get false confessions to fraudulently justify our invading Iraq.

      by Ponder Stibbons on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 10:34:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Why? Meek has a strong organization NT (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bess, jpfdeuce
      •  If Charlie Crist wins the primary, (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        thethinveil, Subo03

        he will win the general election, hands down.  No one knows Rubio north of Miami and Crist's home area is the crucial Tampa Bay area. (St. Petersburg)                                                                                                                                                             I wanted him to switch parties as many of us believed as a Democrat, he would have been much more progressive then our "Blue Dog", Coe "Family" member, Senator Bill Nelson.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               I wouldn't be surprised if a large percentage of Crist's fundraising came from Democrats scared to death of right-winger Rubio.          

        To Congress: "GO BIG" or go home

        by mjd in florida on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 10:49:45 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I DISAGREE (0+ / 0-)

        meek would have a 50/50 shot against rubio; against crist, maybe 35/65 at best

        i don't mind if arlen remains the senior senator from pennsylvania IF the voters in the DEMOCRATIC primary choose him BUT until then...........

        by primaryarlen on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 11:52:54 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  You're giving Dems too much credit in FL (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      surfdog

      I mean, lets look at this post in itself:  Until your comment, where had the national or local people made reference to the fact a DEMOCRAT is running?  Kendrick Meek.  

      It has been ignored by Kos and the front pagers more than anything - everyone gets giddy about a Republican infighting or the hopes that Crist bolts (not likely)...

      We're basically (on a national level) handing this contest to the GOP by default because people are ignoring our own candidate.

      And the Florida Democratic Party is much like this.  It happens time and again.  They may very well concede every contest in the state and focus on the Senate campaign and they will frame it as "not the other guy" -- which is a losing proposition  to begin with.  It's used in perpetuality here for local/state wide candidates.

      Florida's not blue...  Not until everyone starts wanting to turn it blue -- locally and nationally -- and focusing on Democratic candidates instead of GOP antics.

      The Blogs of Tampa Bay: TampaBLAB

      by jpfdeuce on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 11:42:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  actually (0+ / 0-)

        i think all the chips are being put into the alex sink pot at the current time(but your post is correct in many ways)

        i don't mind if arlen remains the senior senator from pennsylvania IF the voters in the DEMOCRATIC primary choose him BUT until then...........

        by primaryarlen on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 11:55:04 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I've gotten lost in the noise... (0+ / 0-)

          ...of the "plane-gate" regarding Sink's travel and McCollum's travel.

          They need to move the capitol to Orlando or another point - because Tallahassee is so out-of-the-way it's a vacuum and leads to these stupid expenditures that are a bit of a necessity (cuz no one FLIES there)

          The Blogs of Tampa Bay: TampaBLAB

          by jpfdeuce on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 12:49:08 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Sestak is miles better than Specter, but (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    thethinveil, rk2

    I wish he had been a bit better about supporting a progressive agenda and defunding a war he said he was "wasting our treasure over there" when we have pressing issues here.

  •  I wonder about those Crist figures. (3+ / 0-)

    Did he give money to himself?

    it doesn't even sound plausible this early.

    You are entitled to express your opinion. But you are NOT entitled to agreement.

    by DawnG on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 10:31:23 AM PDT

  •  Run, Sestak, Run!!!! (9+ / 0-)

    and screw the Dems:

    "As you know, this was achieved without the institutional support of the Democratic establishment."

    we got your back!

    "He's like any other president -- he's a politician and he's got to do what politicians do." Rev. Jeremiah Wright

    by PhillyGal on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 10:32:06 AM PDT

  •  Wow (0+ / 0-)

    That's all the Great Republican Hope and Savior of the Great State of America's Wang managed to raise?

    Does this internet make me look fat?

    by pattyp on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 10:33:43 AM PDT

  •  what was that one accurate kos prediction? (0+ / 0-)

    I forget.

    But yeah, Rubio isn't going anywhere, but this will raise his profile, especially if Crist goes on to become an apostate in the eyes of the base.

  •  I'm torn (4+ / 0-)

    On the one hand, I'd like to see Rubio beat Crist as a continued sign of aGOPalypse.  On the other hand, if Crist is the odds-on favorite to win the Senate seat in Florida, I don't mind a reasonable Republican coming forward.  I honestly don't see how he has a future in the party, as it currently seems to be shaping up, but I do believe that a smart and intellectually honest political opposition is important to keep our Democratic leaders in line.

  •  O2B for Sestak? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MCMetal
    Or how about a link to his campaign website?

    "It's a gay witches for abortion party Flanders, you wouldn't be interested." - Homer Simpson

    by angry liberaltarian on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 10:35:10 AM PDT

  •  Man , I'm Just Hoping That I Get To See (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mdgarcia, uc booker

    Sestack kick Specter's stupid , phony ass ..........

  •  WITF in Harrisburg is reporting today (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    PAbluestater

    that Gerlach will run for Governor and therefore won't run again for the House. That opens up the Chester County seat for the resurgent Dems.

  •  Glad to see Crist ahead (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kefauver, uc booker

    The Club for Growth is beginning to epitomize fail.

    In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; but in practice, there always is a difference.

    by blue aardvark on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 10:38:54 AM PDT

  •  JESUS CRIST! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    uc booker

    He's through.

    "Polls are like crack, political activists know they're bad for them but they read them anyways."-Unknown

    by skywaker9 on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 10:39:00 AM PDT

  •  The issues in FL are (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jpfdeuce, Subo03

    Crist vs Kendrick Meek and can Alex Sink win the Gov race?  FL may well become a D state.

  •  A 2-1 disadvantage versus an incumbent (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JSCram3254, uc booker

    Is not much.

    Merkley would have been about 3 or 4-1 versus Gordon Smith without outside group $.

    "Polls are like crack, political activists know they're bad for them but they read them anyways."-Unknown

    by skywaker9 on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 10:40:34 AM PDT

  •  Crist is perfect for Florida voters (3+ / 0-)

    they can continue a half hearted backlash at the years of Jeb and election fraud, but still stupidly support a republican.

    Go Charlie!

    Dennis Kucinich was right.

    by lisastar on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 10:40:47 AM PDT

  •  Crist gets too much love on this site (5+ / 0-)

    I live in Florida.  Crist has been better than Jeb Bush as Governor....but what a low bar that is.  Crist has nearly bankrupted the state, the counties, and the cities by his "tax cutting" crusade.  Crist has not signed the draconian "No Tax Pledge" authored by wingnut extraordinaire Grover Norquist.  The St. Petersburg Florida Times reports:

    Republican U.S. Senate candidate Charlie Crist has signed the national Americans for Tax Reform Taxpayer Protection Pledge. By doing so Crist promises to "oppose any and all efforts to increase the marginal income tax rates for individuals and/or businesses; and ... oppose any net reduction or elimination of deductions and credits, unless matched dollar for dollar by further reducing tax rates."

    Crist is by no means a Progressive.  He is like former GOP Senator Spector (and even more conservative in some respects).  Here is the link to the entire article:

    Crist Signs Grover Norquist No Tax Pledge

    •  Ding, ding ding.....we have a winner! (3+ / 0-)

      I have posted similar comments previously here.

      The problem is that the Democratic Party is so weak in Florida that electing a Democrat over Crist would be nearly impossible.

      "in the wake of Sept. 11, a frightened nation betrayed one of its core principles -- the rule of law -- for the fool's gold of security." Leonard Pitts

      by gulfgal98 on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 10:56:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not only weak..... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        thethinveil

        ...the Party is defeatist here.  Prominent Floridians do not run for Governor or Senator as Democrats.

        The Democratic Party is being rebuilt, however.  Registration of new Democrats has been way ahead of what the GOP is doing here.  The demographics look good for the future.

        •  Democratic Party in Florida (2+ / 0-)

          ..destroyed itself from within several years ago with poor management and internal scandals.  But with the rise in new voter registrations, and IF Alex Sink wins the Governor's race, that should put the Democrats in a more competitive posture for the future.

          I am actually hopeful that Florida may once again have a strong Democratic Party. IMHO, a lot rides on Alex Sink's shoulders should she win the Governor's race.  She is the best hope for rebuilding the Democratic Party.

          "in the wake of Sept. 11, a frightened nation betrayed one of its core principles -- the rule of law -- for the fool's gold of security." Leonard Pitts

          by gulfgal98 on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 11:07:25 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  YOU NAILED IT (0+ / 0-)

          for a state as big as ours, the state party is stunningly bad and inefficient

          i don't mind if arlen remains the senior senator from pennsylvania IF the voters in the DEMOCRATIC primary choose him BUT until then...........

          by primaryarlen on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 12:02:35 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Meant to say Crist "has now signed" (0+ / 0-)

      If I could type....I'd be dangerous!

    •  no one's saying he's a progressive. (0+ / 0-)

      but the fact that he's not a culture commando makes him such a breath of fresh air for Floridians beaten down from 8 years of Jeb that we're more tolerant of his other faults. Given how the GOP brand is pandering to fundies, it takes courage for Crist to steer clear of that.

      Compare that to Tom Gallagher, former moderate and generally well-regarded insurance commissioner who fell prey to the wingnut siren song in the '06 primary and was thumped badly by Crist.

      In the desert wasteland that is Florida politics, even a few drops of water is immensely preferable to the alternative.

      "I told them on Inauguration Day. I said look into my eyes: no new enhancements." - President Johnny Gentle (Famous Crooner) - Infinite Jest

      by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 11:59:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  He is not close to Specter (0+ / 0-)

      his reputation as a moderate is not deserved.

      The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

      by fladem on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 12:12:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  we are just talking about a primary (0+ / 0-)

      A Republican primary between Rubio and Crist--if Crist wins the primary, he will be the Senator.
      If Rubio wins, it will be Meek vs Rubio.
      Rubio has the rabid base behind him, will Meek be able to compete? I don't think so.

  •  Hmmmmm (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    thethinveil, rk2

    By the way, isn't it perfect that Netroots Nation is in Pennsylvania this year?

    Is this a confirmation that Sestak will be at NN09 in Pittsburgh? Prior to reading this his campaign staff would not confirm.

    So we should plan a Big Sestak for Senate party at NN09!

    Other Big PA news - Gerlach (PA-6) announced today he IS running for PA Governor. Now can we please get a good somewhat-progressive in PA-6!

    "People ask, is there one word that you have more faith in than any other word, ...I'd say its Participation." - Pete Seeger

    by PAbluestater on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 10:44:05 AM PDT

  •  Rubio's relying on the SCOTUS to open (0+ / 0-)

    the floodgates to corporate election sponsorship.  Halliburton/KBR/US Tobacco...he'll have their logos on his suit at the debates.

    It's often said that life is strange. But compared to what? --Steve Forbert

    by darthstar on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 10:47:33 AM PDT

  •  Blogged that YearlyKos (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    PAbluestater

    A Grand Tour of the YearlyKos
    by Simplify
    Mon Jun 12, 2006

    Joe Sestak's (PA-07) iron intensity holds you like a vise.  He transmitted his principles of courage and justice straight into your brain stem -- no applause lines, just direct statement of belief.  You do not mess with a guy who has commanded a carrier battle group in combat -- and who knows exactly why he's in command.  Awesome, in the literal sense.

    My whole post was excessive in the adulatory sense, but it was an impressive speech.

    Government and laws are the agreement we all make to secure everyone's freedom.

    by Simplify on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 10:47:47 AM PDT

    •  Not only was the speech impressive, (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Simplify, rk2

      but there was an informal Q&A session in the Vets For Congress room in Las Vegas.  A couple of dozen vets listened to, and questioned various candidates.  Joe Sestak didn't stay very long but in a very short time he left everyone at the table impressed by his grasp of the issues and the forceful way he expressed himself.  After he left, there was general agreement that someday he'd make a great presidential candidate.

      With our help, he can become the next Senator from Pennsylvania.

      "Never let up. Crush bigotry and greed."

      by LouisMartin on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 11:01:18 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Sounds like a bad fit (0+ / 0-)

        "Take charge" types usually don't fit will in the Senate, I thought? Sestak sounds like he'd be more suited for the governor's mansion.

        Still & all, better Sestak than the ghost.

        Hatred is murder (1 John 3:15)
        Read FAR Future, a serial peak-oil novel, at my blog.

        by dirtroad on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 11:14:13 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  It was great meeting Sestak there at Yearlykos (0+ / 0-)

      as well as Eric Massa. How great that they are both in Congress now.

      "People ask, is there one word that you have more faith in than any other word, ...I'd say its Participation." - Pete Seeger

      by PAbluestater on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 11:19:47 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Kos's read on this race (2+ / 0-)

    reminds me of a chic fantasy draft pick everyone talks about before the draft, and then completely forgets about once the season begins.

    As I keep writing here, Crist's approval among Republicans is well over 60%.  There is no widespread discontent among the GOP rank and file with Crist.  

    When this all started I said it was more probable that Rubio would drop out before the primary than it was that he would pose a real threat to Rubio.

    I stand by that statement, and I am still waiting on what we are betting on....

    The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

    by fladem on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 10:54:16 AM PDT

    •  then how do you rectify (0+ / 0-)

      all the endorsements Rubio's gotten with the core base?

      A song about life
      Why aren't you more like Gandhi? Why aren't I?

      by drache on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 10:58:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  yes there is (0+ / 0-)

      the wingiest nuts(you know the ones who actually vote in the closed primary are mad at charlie; basically the old jeb crowd with a few of the diehard christian righters thrown in)

      i don't mind if arlen remains the senior senator from pennsylvania IF the voters in the DEMOCRATIC primary choose him BUT until then...........

      by primaryarlen on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 12:05:37 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  They are vastly outnumbered (0+ / 0-)

        By the way, McCain won this State, and Guiliani finished third.  

        There are very people inside this state who think Rubio has a prayer.  

        The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

        by fladem on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 12:07:05 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I LIVE HERE (0+ / 0-)

          i know the terrain just as well as you; the race is clearly uphill for rubio BUT it is not a slam dunk in the republican primary(i just wish we had a stronger candidate than meek from our side; i could name 4-5 democrats that i think could be stronger statewide)

          i don't mind if arlen remains the senior senator from pennsylvania IF the voters in the DEMOCRATIC primary choose him BUT until then...........

          by primaryarlen on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 12:09:54 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Rubio (0+ / 0-)

            has less than a 25% chance at getting close to Crist.

            The Democrats have a shot at this race if the Florida budget blows up, but don't get me started on the state of the Party here.  We have been ineffective in mounting statewide campaigns.

            Most of the Democratic money is going to go to Cink.

            The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

            by fladem on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 12:14:55 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  NONSENSE ABOUT THE 25% (0+ / 0-)

              your same old nonsense spouted time and time again here does not make it true; the 25% you spout is complete idiocy; as far as the rest of your post, i agree 100%; for as big a state as we have the state party is stunningly atrocious and i agree with you on the party funding going to sink as well(which at the current time i think is smart because rubio must prove he can take crist out before we waste party money on meek; no way meek would beat crist statwide)

              i don't mind if arlen remains the senior senator from pennsylvania IF the voters in the DEMOCRATIC primary choose him BUT until then...........

              by primaryarlen on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 12:19:09 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  I think you are wrong Kos on a fundmental (0+ / 0-)
    assumption you make in FL.

    I am not sure all the cash in the world can help Crist with his base.

    Remember it's closed primary in FL and Crist really works on indepedents and cross over votes.

    Frankly if anything I am happy to see Rubio do so poorly as I think it improves our chances in the general.

    Money advantage or not, I will be surprised if Crist is the nominee (assuming Rubio actually uses all the material Crist has provided).

    A song about life
    Why aren't you more like Gandhi? Why aren't I?

    by drache on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 10:54:47 AM PDT

  •  Has Sestak officially annouced? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    PAbluestater, rk2

    I think the FL primary is interesting sideshow, but I think Crist has the best shot at that swat on either side of the aisle, and if we have to have a Republican winning, I rather have a sane moderate that a crazy conservative.

    I'm much more interested in PA.  I'm committed to donating and getting involved in the primary.  Sestak far superior to Specter.  I also believe PA is blue enough that either Sestak or Specter will win the general.

    As a result, we grassroot activists have a real chance to show the establishment that they can ignore us at their own peril.  We're not interested in political back scratching and don't care you made a deal with the devil (Specter).  It's not our deal and we don't want him.  We want the most progressive candidates possible and that's not Specter.  There's a better candidate in Sestak and we all need to support him (even if it's just getting the word out to Democrats voting in the PA primary).

    Bipartisanship isn't going to happen as long as one of America's two great parties believes that when it comes to politics, stupidity is the best policy.

    by War Horse on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 10:57:08 AM PDT

  •  May say more abt Crist's supporters than Rubio's (0+ / 0-)

    $4.3 mil is huge for one quarter this far away from the actual election. This could be evidence that Crist supporters and people in the GOP "establishment" (which is not quite as loco as the party's grassroots Palin base) are seriously worried about Rubio's potential impact, so they're donating like mad early on to stop the Rubio movement before it can really get rolling.

    As for Rubio's lowly $$ amount, it's not a good sign, but not necessarily an omen of an inevitable beat-down. If we all learned anything from Obama's campaign for president, it's that grassroots organizing and fundraising is all about small donations. As more and more "ordinary people" in the Florida GOP base hear about Rubio, his donations should pick up steam. All this $340K says about Rubio's campaign is that not many people have really heard enough about him yet. (This is all conjecture on my part, btw, I'm an amateur at this.) Do not be surprised to see Rubio's fundraising increase exponentially in the coming months. Likewise, it's possible that Crist's biggest supporters have already made substantial donations, so do not be surprised to see his fundraising figures stagnate or even decline in the quarters ahead.

    Rubio may or may not actually beat Crist, but it should be much, much closer than these early numbers would indicate. Then again, I know nothing about Florida politics, and might very well be stupid. Time will tell.

    I have huge balls. - Stephen T. Colbert

    by kwolfman on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 11:08:23 AM PDT

  •  How could you possibly think Rubio would (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Trial Lawyer Richard

    beat Crist? Crist is hugely popular in Florida.

    Hillary Clinton's Liberal Ranking http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/8/10/122232/619

    by tigercourse on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 11:10:08 AM PDT

  •  Where's the Club for Growth? (0+ / 0-)

    Did they stop growing? Cut and run? Or did they decide Crist was OK?

    Maybe they're just waiting for the primary to really get started before they start shoveling money at Rubio?

    Hatred is murder (1 John 3:15)
    Read FAR Future, a serial peak-oil novel, at my blog.

    by dirtroad on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 11:10:50 AM PDT

  •  Damn. Republicans weren't fooled into suicide. (0+ / 0-)

    I was hoping they would double down on insanity.

    http://www.democraticfreedomcaucus.org/dfc-platform/

    by Common Cents on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 11:24:03 AM PDT

  •  The power elite must be terrified (0+ / 0-)

    to be funneling that much money to Crist. I'm sure they are, actually. Their A-team is about to go down the drain, while their B-team might actually get us national healthcare.

    Go Rubio!

  •  well kind of scary (0+ / 0-)

    i just saw a blurb on another spot that says rethug VA gov raised 1.5 million in june...wtf dems we need to get on it!

  •  I wonder if Harry Sargeant's bundling $ for Crist (0+ / 0-)

    like he has in the past, and like he did for McCain, in that peculiarly shady way... just askin'.

    Not Ideas about the Thing but the Thing Itself - Wallace Stevens

    by catchlightning on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 11:37:33 AM PDT

  •  heads up (0+ / 0-)

    with their heads up their ass, you can take it to the bank that texas republicans are going to renominate rick perry for governor and defeat kay bailey hutchison.

    the crazy is going to dominate the (alleged) moderate, who would be far right almost everywhere else, no matter what the money figures say.

    nobody ever won a texas republican primary by being tarred as a moderate, much less proclaiming it as her only claim to fame to mask her ineffectiveness.

    (rethugs hate government so bad that ineffectiveness is, to them, a positive virtue...)

    On health care, the 'public option' is the compromise; single-payer is the necessity.

    by slangist on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 11:41:44 AM PDT

  •  GO JOE GO (0+ / 0-)

    great job this last quarter

    i don't mind if arlen remains the senior senator from pennsylvania IF the voters in the DEMOCRATIC primary choose him BUT until then...........

    by primaryarlen on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 11:45:30 AM PDT

  •  Specter after my request for public option: (0+ / 0-)

    Thank you for contacting my office regarding a public health insurance option. I appreciate hearing from you.

    As a member of the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Labor, Health and Human Services, and Education, it is essential that I remain fully informed in all areas of health care policy. During the 111th Congress, we will debate various health issues, such as the complex question of managed health care and the Federal role in its regulation, as well as reforms to the Medicare program, including its prescription drug benefit. Along with providing access to affordable health care for all Americans, my top legislative priorities include necessary increases in funding for all aspects of biomedical research within the National Institutes of Health and the Centers for Disease Control, and ensuring the appropriate examination and refinement of the vital public health programs administered by the Federal government.

    Again, I appreciate your taking the time to bring your views on a public health insurance option to my attention. Your input is vital as I continue to press for targeted health care reform and urge Congressional leadership to make this reform a top priority. If you have any further questions on this issue or any related matter, please do not hesitate to contact me or visit my website, at http://specter.senate.gov.

    Sincerely,

    Arlen Specter

    Not to throw shoes is the crime. Not to be outraged is the crime.

    by the girl on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 12:00:03 PM PDT

  •  redistricting in Pa. (0+ / 0-)

    "I still think the plan is to erase this district after the census and redraw.  Pa  loses a seat and I bet the goopers pick this one."
    ===================================

    I think the lost district has to be in southwestern Pa., population loss is there, not in the southeast,
    and especially there if democrats hold state house and/or governorship.

    Wagner does sound like a stronger candidate, but a southwestern dem. Pa. candidate would help get votes.

  •  Three reasons Crist isn't an underdog: (0+ / 0-)
    1. Republicans voted for him in the gubernatorial primary just three years ago.  He thrashed Tom Gallagher with 66% of the vote.  (IIRC, Tom Gallagher was the more wingnutty of the two.)
    1. I haven't seen any evidence that massive numbers of Crist's supporters would have officially fled the Republican party since 2006.  There were 3.9 million registered Republicans in 2006 and 4.1 in 2008.  Democrats added more, but the Republican party didn't shrink that much.
    1. Crist is the more familiar name.  To lose, whats-his-name would have to get a lot of people to the polls to vote against Crist.  That's going to be an uphill climb given that Crist had only a 25% disapproval rating among Republicans in April.

    Fight 'em 'til Hell freezes over, and then fight 'em on the ice. - David Van Os

    by sagra on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 12:25:40 PM PDT

  •  It is time to wake up to Meek (0+ / 0-)

    Fundraising.

    "No other non-incumbent Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate today is raising the funds necessary to grow the movement that we are building together," Meek said in a statement.

    Meek for Senate.

  •  Kos, (0+ / 0-)

    told you so.....

    Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere. - Martin Luther King, Jr.

    by Outraged Mom on Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 01:29:59 PM PDT

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