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The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll has Obama with a 57-40 approval rating, which almost mirrors our own Research 2000 55-37 number. Other polls are in similar favorability territory: Fox has it at 55-41, Gallup at 56-40, Quinnipiac at 53-47, NBC/WSJ at 56-33, and so on.

Here's what those other pollsters don't do, however -- break down their samples by geography. We do. Just from last week's edition:

Obama favorability

            Fav   Unfav

All          55    37

South        27    68
Rest of USA  67    24

NE           82     7
Midwest      62    30
West         59    32

Democratic Party favorability

            Fav   Unfav

All          41    51

South        21    72
NE           62    26
Midwest      44    48
West         44    50

Republican Party favorability

            Fav   Unfav

All          21    67

South        48    37
NE            6    87
Midwest      10    78
West         12    75

Republicans are already celebrating their massive 2010 victories, yet the data is brutal for them. Sure, Obama is down off his highs. But so what, if Republicans can't raise their own numbers?

party favorability 10-20

Since January 8, Dems have gone from +8 net favorability to -10 -- an 18-point drop. Republicans have gone from -28 to -46 -- an 18 point drop. And really, I'd rather be the party at -10 than the one at -46. Yet it's the Republicans prematurely chortling about their big 2010 victories. Such a funny, funny group of people.

Of course, the mid-terms are going to be a base election, and the thinking is that Republicans are more energized. And in August, it sure seemed as if there was an intensity gap. But we've fought hard for the public option, and we've made headway. DC Dems would've tossed the public option aside in a heartbeat the way they did single payer had we not remained engaged. Now, thanks to the heroics of the House progressives who've stood firm in the face of intense pressure, we may get the kind of legislation that WILL excite and energize the base ... AND demoralize a teabagging movement that already seems to be losing steam. Indeed, their disruption schtick is already wearing thin with the media and public, and the've got nothing else to fill the void while losing the battle for public opinion on health care and Obama's presidency.

Here's one more set of geographic numbers for your persual:

Generic Congressional Ballot

            Dem   GOP

All          35    29

South        21    47
NE           51     8
Midwest      37    26
West         36    28

That six-point spread looks tight until you look at the geographic breakdowns. Look at what Republicans face in the Northeast, where they're trying to hold a Senate seat in pick up a couple of House ones. Dems also have a double-digit lead in the Midwest, a fierce battleground in 2008, and likely to repeat in 2010. The West is expected to be pretty quiet in 2010 (other than a couple of seats in California, ID-01 and maybe CO-04, NM-02, and MT-AL, I can't think of anything else that could be competitive out here), but even here Dems have an 8-point lead.

Republicans trail in virtually every issue in every credible poll, and that's with the South boosting their numbers. Throw geography into the equation, and you realize that yes, the GOP remains a Southern regional rump party, and while their prospects in their home region look pretty darn good, the same can't be said for the rest of America.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 08:40 AM PDT.


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Comment Preferences

  •  DeLay = sign of a GOP Southern regional rump n/t (11+ / 0-)

    I refuse to have a battle of wits with an unarmed person. -- Pogo

    by annieli on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 08:42:17 AM PDT

  •  And even outside the south (20+ / 0-)

    They are limited to a few areas per state.

    In Oregon, for example, there might as well be no urban Republicans anymore.  After the last election, there are only a few in the state legislature that represent any part of the Portland metro area and ZERO from the cities of Portland and Eugene themselves (the two biggest in the state).

    "Polls are like crack, political activists know they're bad for them but they read them anyways."-Unknown

    by skywaker9 on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 08:43:06 AM PDT

    •  I'm wondering if Markos has enough data (12+ / 0-)

      (perhaps by combining different polls over many weeks, as they seem to be fairly stable) to do a finer-grained analysis at some point.  What, for example, does Florida look like -- and what does the South look like once you remove it?  What does the West look like when you separate it into the mountain states versus other?  Can it be broken down into urban, suburban, exurban, rural within each region?  That sort of thing is catnip.  I say again: this polling is one of the best things this site does.

      A mess of Bush Admin officials have gotten away with serious crimes! Grab a mop!

      by Seneca Doane on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 08:58:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  good question (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tietack, Matt Z, Seneca Doane, sulthernao

        I would love to see the data pooled over a few polls to enable a reliable breakdown by state.  Some finer-grained crosstabs -- blacks and whites in the South vs. non-South -- would be useful as well.

        "Everyone is stupid but me" must be quite a burden to bear.

        by cardinal on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:01:00 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I'd like to see this too (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tietack, Matt Z, Seneca Doane, sulthernao

        The West Coast states are drastically different than the Mountain West states, politically.

        I like lemurs -6.50, -4.82

        by roadbear on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:03:55 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  the west coast states are also different (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Matt Z, Seneca Doane, sulthernao, roadbear

          internally from themselves. i wouldn't be surprised if there isn't a significant east-of-the-mountain/valley-and-foothills/exurban socal desert towns factor to that 12%.

          surf putah, your friendly neighborhood central valley samizdat

          by wu ming on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:17:02 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  you are correct (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Seneca Doane

            WA's two seats east of the mountains are unlikely to go Dem anytime soon (although the Spokane one was Rep. Tom Foley's forever); their one seat--WA-08--in Western WA will go Dem before too long.  If Dave Ross had run in either of the last two elections rather than Darcy Burner it would probably have been a pickup (don't get me wrong, I loved Darcy and gave $$$ to her campaign).  That being said, the off chance of an additional seat going to WA in redistricting would give the Dems one more House seat.

            Eastern WA is about the size of Idaho and somewhat larger than Wyoming and possibly Montana, a bit north of a million people.  Eastern OR is smaller, and of course the Central Valley of CA is much, much larger.

            That being said, the GOP in the West is considerably different than that in the South--I live in both places--and the poll can't possibly reflect that.

            I like lemurs -6.50, -4.82

            by roadbear on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:49:14 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  Look at the disaffection in Midwest (7+ / 0-)

        Dems are only at 44%, and GOP is a dismal 10%.

        That's a broad swath of geography that has concluded that NOBODY in Congress is addressing their needs or concerns, and thus makes it a real electoral wildcard down the road.

        Say what you will about the Ten Commandments, you must always come back to the pleasant fact that there are only ten of them. H. L. Mencken

        by Keith930 on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:04:54 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  yup. west and midwest there (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Seneca Doane, sethyeah

          obama's still polling well there, notably.

          if dems play this right, they can dominate. if they blow it and the GOP returns to sanity, they could make a respectable comeback. if neither does, there's a 3rd party opening. the west is especially fond of 3rd party/independent types. i think decline to state is getting close to becoming the second biggest "party" in a lot of places.

          surf putah, your friendly neighborhood central valley samizdat

          by wu ming on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:21:23 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Agreed: The polling is excellent. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Seneca Doane, sulthernao

        The analysis of the data is generally first rate, too, IMO.

        Personally, though, I am beginning to wonder if any of the polls are reflecting the true state of things WRT the Republican Party.  I think they may well be in worse shape than is shown.

        That the Dems are "less worse" is not much comfort, though.

      •  Yup -- and if so as expected, it explains (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ellefarr, Seneca Doane

        a lot about our politics. Not only is representation disproportionate for rural regions nationally, but most states are organized the same way -- we've given the most isolated, crazy folks a veto over the country.

    •  WA is the same way (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Ajax the Greater, Matt Z, sulthernao

      2/3 majority in both houses of the Legislature; even the suburban seats have trended Dem for several cycles now.

      Only one precinct in Seattle went McCain in 2008 (same with Bush in 2004)--a very wealthy, old-money gated golf community once known for its extremely restrictive covenants.  In my Seattle LD the Green or SWP candidate normally outpolls the Republican.

      The majority would be larger if 1/6 of the population did not live in the rural eastern side of the state, a much more conservative area (I don't believe OR has quite the percentage on the east side of the Cascades, but I'm not certain about that).

      I like lemurs -6.50, -4.82

      by roadbear on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:02:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  IL (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sulthernao, BrighidG

      Starting in 2004, the House delegation has moved from Republican to Democratic by one seat per election cycle. The D elected officials aren't helping -- see "Blagojevich" -- but 2012 is probably their last chance to get a state-wide seat.

      If "con" is the antonym of "pro," what is the antonym of "progress"?

      by Frank Palmer on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:23:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Kos brings the reality (13+ / 0-)


    We did not come to fear the future. We came here to shape it. -President Barack Obama

    by BDsTrinity on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 08:43:16 AM PDT

  •  Obama can't be THAT popular in the Northeast (7+ / 0-)

    That number seems fishy to me.  I'm sure he's quite popular in New York/New England, but only 7% unfavourable?   No way he's that popular there.  I mean, there are still a few Republicans left up there.

  •  what's really amazing is that (19+ / 0-)

    the South is almost 20% African American as a whole. Obama's numbers among Southern Whites are scary bad but not surprising.

    After Obama's eighth straight victory, Penn told reporters: "Winning Democratic primaries is not a qualification or a sign of who can win the general election.

    by nevadadem on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 08:44:37 AM PDT

    •  Typical of dems in that area (8+ / 0-)

      I remember someone telling me that all Obama needed to win MS was something like 25% of the white vote.  That tells you how split such states are.

      "Polls are like crack, political activists know they're bad for them but they read them anyways."-Unknown

      by skywaker9 on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 08:45:47 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  dems = democrats or demographics? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Because white urban democrats, at least here in Alabama, were perfectly happy to vote for Obama. The problem is that's not enough white vote in a Southern state to swing the outcome. White = suburban or rural.

        Obama got 10% of the white voters in AL. I sometimes wonder if I might have met the entire 10% (since we are so few) ;)

        _Karl Rove is an outside agitator._

        by susanala on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:15:33 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I think it was more like 14% . . . I can't find (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        that number right now for some reason, but I know at the time I argued that---with a Democratic Party that stood for working-class white people---getting Obama to win Mississippi was perfectly doable.

        37% of MS is African-American. Dems working to attract enough white votes in Mississippi should be a no brainer. But it's not happening that I can see.

        •  We still need Dean/50-state (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          chrississippi, dkeep1

          Alas, that went out the window.

          •  The hatred of the South (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            is pretty intense up north.  The media (KOS included) splits everything up on a state by state basis and not an urban/rural basis, like they should.  I grew up in a rural area in northwest Illinois which is much more conservative than where I live now in Charleston, SC.  They forget about all the African Americans and the urban liberal whites down here.  It's a shame.

            One of many liberals in South Carolina. We're outnumbered, but not non-existent.

            by dkeep1 on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 12:19:23 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  kos also ignores the mountain west (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:

              Baucus from MT, mountain west, reddest region,
              and senators from Utah and Idaho, two of the four reddest states are also on the same committee:

              Gallup Poll, Midyear 2009, State of the States


              While kos continues to bash the south, the biggest problem health care faces in the Senate comes from kos's own census region: the west.

              "Reserve your right to think, for even to think wrongly is better than not to think at all." --Hypatia of Alexandria, c.400

              by jayskew on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 03:18:23 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Very true. (0+ / 0-)

              Hell, there are few people in this country as virulently anti-black as the white folks of South Boston.

    •  Think race (16+ / 0-)

      may have something to do with those numbers?  :-) I sure as hell do.

      "Free your mind & your ass will follow" Parliament Funkadelics

      by TomP on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 08:48:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Does it mean that Southerners are more gullible (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wuod kwatch, TomP

        to GOP message because of past racial history or does it mean that racist white GOPosaurs have been migrating to South?

        Then they came for me - and by that time there was nobody left to speak up.

        by DefendOurConstitution on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 08:55:30 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  An alternate theory (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SueDe, TomP, DefendOurConstitution

          It doesnt have to be racist white GOPosaurs migrating to the south.  I believe its people absorbing their surroundings.  When immersed in a culture where all their acquaintances are conservative, the local papers frame the news in a right-wing way, and Fox news is blaring in every public place, few people would question the sources.

          The overwhelming number of people live in an echo chamber.

          •  conformity is a big part of it (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            Most southerner seem to believe that "everybody" is conservative in their world. Fox is everywhere, wingnut religion is everywhere, the loudest mouths are conservative.  

            I am not a bumpersticker sort of person at all.  But the last few years, I've changed this (even if I lose a client or two). Because I think it is important for these money-see monkey-do people to be aware that not everybody is drinking the koolaid.  

            I've found that it has given aid and comfort to the other closet Dems and encouraged them to come out and speak up as well.

        •  it means Southerners are Baptists (4+ / 0-)

          More than any other factor, religion drives politics in the South. I live in Mississippi, and I see it: Southern Baptists buy into all the talking-it-up shit that Republicans do regarding religion.  They've been trained to think that the GOP is the "Jesus" party... and that's why they remain so loyal to them.  

          Racism is a factor anywhere, but honestly, that's dying out in the South.  Integration worked, and the newer generation of Southerners don't buy the old stereotypes, because we've gone to school together, we work together, we live in the same neighborhoods, and except for a few holdouts who listen to their ignorant grandpappys too much, we're friends.  So the racial factor is lessening.

          The Baptist factor, though... not lessening at all.  Once you train somebody to believe the Bible's true, you can also train them to believe Republican dogma is true.  Once you get somebody to reject results in favor of rhetoric, you can do pretty much anything with 'em.

          "Glenn Beck ends up looking like a fat, stupid child. His face should be wearing a chef's hat on the side of a box of eclairs. " - Doug Stanhope

          by Front Toward Enemy on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:47:08 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I guess the televangelization of the GOP fits (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            TomP, Front Toward Enemy

            right in with the Southern Baptists.

            Then they came for me - and by that time there was nobody left to speak up.

            by DefendOurConstitution on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:50:49 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Tell that to the folks in my East Tenn county (2+ / 0-)

            We have very few black people here, and among them not ONE has dared sport an Obama bumpersticker (in fact, outside of Atlanta, I can't say I've seen the first black person driving a car with a southern licence tag and an Obama sticker). In my town, the only cars with Obama stickers belong to white Presbyterians.

            Last September, I pulled into the local Sonic past a knot of teenagers, 8-9 of whom were white and 1 black. The black kid spied my Obama sticker, punched a white buddy in the arm, and wordlessly pointed to my bumper, then they turned away and joined the rest of the white kids.

            The beer joints -- but not the family restaurants -- are full of Obamani***r this, Obamani***r that. It's very quietly everywhere.

            I take the "very quietly" part as a massive VICTORY.

          •  I don't think the underlying xenophobia is gone.. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Front Toward Enemy

            It just shifts. Sure, blackness, per se, is not as much of a stigma as it was even 20 years ago.

            But that's why the teabaggers don't yell that Obama is a n* very often -- what they yell is that he's "Kenyan".

            It's the underlying xenophobia that morphs and continues. So, of course, literal old-school racism is weaker -- but the emotional drive that underlyed it is still there, particularly in certain religious groups that you named.

          •  I'm a newcomer to MS (2+ / 0-)

            and from what I've seen you are exactly right FTW. There seems to be a pretty stark divide between older/younger whites here on race... but religion is unbelievable down here.

            Coming from a lapsed Catholic home from central Illinois - religion is simply NOT the same up north as it is down here. It literally permeates every institution. As example - an important department/college of our local public university had, I shit you not, a Family Feud competition between the Claus family and the Holy Family as part of the winter-break/Christmas festivities.

            Cannot imagine that happening at a similar institution up north.

            Sponge Bob, Mandrake, Cartoons. That's how your hard-core islamahomocommienazis work.

            by Benito on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 01:01:48 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  welcome to Mississippi! :) (0+ / 0-)

              Always glad to see someone else who can help me turn the state blue! :)  (We may die tryin', but it's good to keep trying, anyhow).

              Yep, I think that's one thing people have misunderstood about what drives politics in the South.  There are racists here, but not as many as people in other areas of the country would like to believe... nor are their areas as non-racist as they think.  I'm sure that's a factor, but, overall, it's religion.

              If we could break the GOP's stronghold on religion, they'd be decimated.  And it's starting to slip for a few, already.  The GOP made too many promises to their Christian base that they didn't keep, and it is wearing them down.  They still distrust the Democrats, though.  It's an area for Dems to work on...

              "Glenn Beck ends up looking like a fat, stupid child. His face should be wearing a chef's hat on the side of a box of eclairs. " - Doug Stanhope

              by Front Toward Enemy on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 01:20:08 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  and Fox (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Matt Z, TomP, Kristina40

        Fox must huge in the south.

        The news network that does not offend racists.

        If cats could blog.... they wouldn't.

        by crystal eyes on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 08:57:39 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Schaller discusses this in his writings (7+ / 0-)

      The deal here is that while Southern blacks vote at a higher rate than do blacks elsewhere, and vote as a unit for the Democratic Party, Southern whites outnumber them sufficiently and vote GOP in enough numbers to totally swamp the black vote for statewide offices.  

      Visit for Minnesota news as it happens.

      by Phoenix Woman on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 08:50:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  GA has 13 House reps: 7 R & 6 D (0+ / 0-)

        Hardly completely swamped.

        Current gov. is R, but he's term-limited, and the front -runner, former gov. Roy Barnes, is D.

        D incumbents include attorney general, agriculture commissioner, and labor commissioner.

        Yeah, we know about Saxby and Isakson (two R senators), and we're working on that.

        "Reserve your right to think, for even to think wrongly is better than not to think at all." --Hypatia of Alexandria, c.400

        by jayskew on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 06:50:37 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  That doesn't mean much... (0+ / 0-)

 the presidential level.  West Virginia, for example, has a Democratic governor, two Democratic senators, and two out of three Democratic congressmen, yet it's been solidly red for at least the past three presidential elections.

          As a matter of fact, I DO drive a Volvo.

          by KTinOhio on Thu Oct 22, 2009 at 10:56:12 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Is the % black that high (0+ / 0-)

      when you include as "southern" the large and less-black states of FL and TX, as this poll does?

      "Everyone is stupid but me" must be quite a burden to bear.

      by cardinal on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:04:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  They're so screwed. And if real health care (14+ / 0-)

    reform passes with a good public option, they'll be done for.  Dead.  They will have nothing to run on.

    The GOP knows this which is why they're hell bent on killing reform.

    "Go take a shit on the salad bar at Wendys."

    by Ex Real Republican on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 08:44:54 AM PDT

    •  Not so fast. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      There is always a good number of people who favor "None of the Above".  With Democrats in charge, the anti-Dem will likely get 25-30 of the vote as a start. All I am saying is it never good to overlook your opponent.

      •  But Our Opponent Is So Caught Up In An Alternate (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        GreatDane, jayskew

        reality that they are not even speaking the majority's language and they refuse to take prudent steps to survive and expand their party - like, stop bleeding Hispanic and/or women's support.

        I'm not overlooking our opponent but the anti-Democratic vote (which I agree is likely to increase) doesn't really have a viable alternative other than staying at home - which isn't really a viable alternative after all.

        Because we need a real opposition party, the sooner the Thugs finish destroying themselves the sooner our country can move past them.

    •  Nothing to run on. (0+ / 0-)

      They're going to have a helluva time explaining why the entire GOP is going to vote against a Consumer Protection bill and against anti-trust legislation for health insurance companies.

      Think they'll bring up states rights as justification?  In that case, I'm sure they'll approve of Eric Holder's latest move on medical marijuana dispensaries.

      I love to see Republicans squeezed in a vise of their own making.

      "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

      by SueDe on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 10:17:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I hope they come up with... (0+ / 0-)

        Contract for America, Part Deux.  The same old gun crap, anti-gay marriage crap, abortion crap, tax-cut crap, illegal immigrants crap...but this time repackaged for the beyond-cutting-edge, urban/suburban hip-hop crowd by Michael Steele.  In fact, the tea-baggers already have their own underway, which they call a "Contract From America":  (I spent a couple minutes looking; what a f**king disaster.)

        By the way, for you youngsters who weren't there or don't remember, here's the COA in all its glory:  Lucky for us, hardly any of this ridiculous grand plan was enacted (or withstood legal challenges on Constitutional grounds).

    •  I wish you were right but... (0+ / 0-)

      think of all the Southerners on Medicare, Social Security, unemployment, etc., who are decrying "socialism" and "government takeovers" while demanding that the guvvermint stay out of their Medicare.  

    •  they'll just make up something to run on /nt (0+ / 0-)
    •  I would not be surprised... (0+ / 0-)

      to see Obama approval shoot back up to the 65%/70% range nationally, at least for a while, after a decent health care bill is passed.  Regardless what polls are showing about agreeing/disagreeing with HCR bills on the table, Indies will love this as an indication that it's really not business as usual anymore.  Republicans will have a very public, very ugly---and very entertaining---white-hot meltdown as well.

  •  North Carolina House seats... (6+ / 0-)

    I saw a Republican sympathetic blog touting recent PPP poll that had generic Republican beating generic Democrat by a big margin. But we vote for representatives by district, and I don't see a D seat that may be competitive except for Kissel's.

    So while state-wide, regional, and national polls might be spun to look good for the Republicans, when it comes down to the way the election works, I've yet to see any indication that they will do anything.

  •  Those Republican Party fav/unfav # 's (15+ / 0-)

    ought to TERRIFY the R's.

    Republican Party favorability

               Fav   Unfav

    All          21    67

    South        48    37
    NE            6    87
    Midwest      10    78
    West         12    75

    Outside of the South they are in huge trouble as a Party !

    87 % unfavorable in the Northeast, 78 in the Midwest, and 75 in the West ?!?  Are you freakin' kidding me ?  And only 48 % approval in the South which is their only real base.

    This is the kind of thing that screams out for a serious attempt at a conservative third-party.  I say : Go for it teabaggers!

    Create a third-party movement and just plain call it the National Tea Party.  LOL

    Cheering when America loses 2016 Olympics, jeering when our President wins Nobel Peace Prize: Do Republicans hate America???

    by RobertInWisconsin on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 08:46:01 AM PDT

    •  I wonder what historical data (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Matt Z

      there is to show whether or not there is a strong correlation between unfavorabilty and how many ultimately "come home" to there usual party affiliations once an election is imminent.

      Say what you will about the Ten Commandments, you must always come back to the pleasant fact that there are only ten of them. H. L. Mencken

      by Keith930 on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:12:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  You wouldn't know it (0+ / 0-)

      from the amount of media coverage they get.

      Which has made me only view media directly from the source (WH) or trustworthy online sources (dailykos).

      I wanted to stay with the "mainstream" media but the conversation is so off the rails of reality, there's no point anymore.

      Visit to stop climate change.

      by bogmanoc on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:52:20 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  split out mountain West and see (0+ / 0-)

      Come on kos, show us.

      "Reserve your right to think, for even to think wrongly is better than not to think at all." --Hypatia of Alexandria, c.400

      by jayskew on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 06:35:37 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  GOP Penis think... (4+ / 0-) have to at least look like you can get it up (even if you can't) to avoid the ugly lights and going home alone...metaphorically speaking.

    (-9,-9) pragmatic incrementalist :-P

    by Enterik on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 08:46:10 AM PDT

  •  ever wonder what's on the other side of Alices (5+ / 0-)

    Looking glass?  well wonder no more...  the other side of Alices Looking glass is the American SOUTH...

    painting the white roses red since their inception.

    CNN aka CRANK Network Non-news

    by KnotIookin on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 08:46:25 AM PDT

  •  Lincoln must be turning (16+ / 0-)

    over in his grave seeing the Republican party now the ideological heirs of the Confederacy and essentially only strong in those states.

    "Free your mind & your ass will follow" Parliament Funkadelics

    by TomP on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 08:47:24 AM PDT

  •  So let me get this straight Obama's approval #'s (11+ / 0-)

    are even higher if you don't include the south? hmmm

    Then why do people on Dailykos try to make it seem that Obama's presidency has already failed?

    If I only read Dailykos diairies and comments-- I would think that Obama is the second coming of Bush.

    Could it be that Dailykos is out of touch with the rest of the country?

    •  Just because we critique Obama and Democrats (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jayskew, bogmanoc, pademocrat, gooners

      in the Congress for certain things doesn't mean we think he is a failure. In fact, Obama himself has challenged his left flank to place pressure upon him and Congressional Dems. From everything from healthcare to foreign policy to LGBT civil rights we need to do that. We know what the Republicans think and believe about these issues. It's up to us as Progressive and Centrist Indies/Dems to hold this Democratic majority accountable when they need to be as well as praise them when they get it right.

      •  Obviously you have not read all the diaries and (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew, Matt Z, sethyeah


        Dem's on this site were alluding to the fact that Obama was a failure before he was even inaugurated.  

        Pressure and criticism are great things-- but saying silly things like climate change will make or break this administration is ridiculous.

        Saying things like Obama is a sissy or sell out is not criticism.

        •  I have criticized Obama and the Congressional (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SueDe, realityworld

          Democrats without mercy about their inaction on civil rights issues. I do feel like they are failing on that front, and telling them inaction is not acceptable is apart of that. I can understand and relate with peoples strong frustrations with the Democratic establishment. Frankly, the thing that made me switch from a Dem to an Indie is the financial regulation. Timothy Geithner is going to reform Wall Street? I don't think so. But I still support the President and Democratic party on a host of other things so I keep criticizing and praising alike when it is required.

          •  Absolutely. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            Picking Summers and Geitner to head his economic team was a huge mistake, I believe.  I'm in favor of big economic change (breaking up the "too big to fail" banks) and heavy financial regulation.  Other than that, I'm right with him and ready to fight the Blue Dogs to force congress further to the left.

            A lot of the criticism of Obama on this site is, I think, of the variety "I can bad-mouth my brother, but you better not."

            "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

            by SueDe on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 10:34:54 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Link please? (0+ / 0-)

          "Dem's on this site were alluding to the fact that Obama was a failure before he was even inaugurated."

          •  I have many-- here you go (0+ / 0-)


            Obama cannot ignore what Bush has done. It would (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by: greenskeeper, marina, ibonewits, rossl
            be a stain on Obama's presidency, and would be considered a great failure of his administration. Especially given the recent weeks of Bush and Cheney literally admitting to their own guilt.

            This coment was made Jan 10 2009 -- here is the link to the diary



            Obama doesn't get it (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by: Planet B, TiaRachel, ExStr8, godlessheathen
            and now that he has surrounded himself with center-right people there is no way in hell he'll start getting these things when he withdraws into the Presidential cocoon.

            This comment was made on Dec 18th 2008 here is the link to the diary



            In case you have forgotting (0+ / 4-)
            Hidden by:askew, TLS66, boofdah, soms
            Obama is looking for republican not democrats. Hope is been replace with bipertisanism.
            Please look for Tom delay or Senator Lot those are the people Obama is looking for now. Tell Sebelius to start getting ready for 2012

            and the response that followed

            Why is this being Hr'd? (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:soms, ppl can fly, al ajnabee
            I've seen established folks saying basically the same thing since Obama started announcing nominees.

            Heck, I've seen worse directed at Obama lately.

            •  Just as I thought; you've haven't got shit. (0+ / 0-)

              "Dems" on this site? Admit it; You pull some turds out of the punchbowl and call the site all full of "Obama is a failure" because it feeds into your Big Tent persecution complex.

              •  Just as I thought; I supplied the links-you can't (0+ / 0-)

                handle the truth.  Just because you write " you've haven't got shit" doesn't make it true. Admit it; Instead of refuting my argument- you just name call like a second grader.  I can do this all day if you want.  This is too easy for me ;)

    •  You don't understand Democrats, do you? (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      majcmb1, JanL, bryker, Kristina40, realityworld

      We criticize everyone, even people we love.

      It's part of the way we think. We're always looking to improve things. While conservatives are always looking to keep what they've got.

      In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; but in practice, there always is a difference. - Yogi Berra

      by blue aardvark on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:05:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Criticism is the nature of Democrats-- I know (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew, JanL, Matt Z, sethyeah

        Criticism is a great thing.  Obama and all democrats need criticism and pressure.

        But you can have criticism that is constructive and you can have criticism that is destructive.

        •  I agree (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          A Bible verse:

          15Instead, speaking the truth in love, we will in all things grow up into him who is the Head, that is, Christ.
          Ephesians 4(New International Version)

          Emphasis mine, as bold text was not invented prior to Gutenberg.

          Anyway, my point is that anything you say cannot merely be true, but must also be beneficial.

          In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; but in practice, there always is a difference. - Yogi Berra

          by blue aardvark on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 10:00:21 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  The president acknowledged this (3+ / 0-)

        in yesterday's speech to NY Dems who had been phone-banking. He noted we "all have an opinion".  
        He also ran down the list of things he and his administration have done, and noted that he is "just getting started".  
        Good on him for that, constructive criticism is fine, but some of the constant carping around here is discouraging - especially when we have reason to be encouraged by this polling (even if it's way early).  I think most sitting Democrats know they have to deliver on most of his agenda or risk getting booted.  I am still hopeful for a good health care bill that works for Americans better than this ugly mess we have going on presently.  
        I don't honestly consider the Republican party "in the game" at this point - we have to hang together and get the best bills on health, climate, education that we can get NOW, so that results are felt by election day 2010.  

        Think what you are doing today. -Fred Rogers

        by JanL on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:59:49 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  I see your point; (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Newsie8200, Matt Z, realityworld

      on the other hand, don't forget that the South is by far the largest region when you group the states as Markos does.  So ". . .if you don't include the South" is a meaningless hypothetical.  He could win reelection without garnering a single Southern state -- but it would be cutting it really close.

      "Everyone is stupid but me" must be quite a burden to bear.

      by cardinal on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:07:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  And Obama won VA, NC, FL and almost GA (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        So what do kossacks do?  Try not to count them as southern anymore.  sheesh.

        "Reserve your right to think, for even to think wrongly is better than not to think at all." --Hypatia of Alexandria, c.400

        by jayskew on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 06:52:38 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Thanks for this. (13+ / 0-)

    It really is hard to gauge the sentiments of the nation as a whole when you live down here. Everything is so distorted, and sometimes it feels like everyone is against us. Nice to be reminded that there are saner places.

    •  It is almost as hard to gauge sentiments (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      cardinal, Matt Z, sricki, roadbear

      from where I sit in a blue state with a Dem Gov, both Senators and supermajorities in both state houses. It is skewed here in Maryland as well.

      You fell victim to one of the classic blunders, the most famous of which is "Never get involved in a land war in Asia".

      by yellowdog on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:06:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Maryland is the skewiest of all (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Matt Z

        Don't get me wrong -- it's my favorite state.  But spending time there (1-2 months a year for me) can warp your perspective faster than anything.  It's one of the only parts of the country in which its wealthiest suburbs lean strongly Democratic.  It also has the largest and most prosperous black suburban community in America.  And then there's the whole Beltway thing. . .

        "Everyone is stupid but me" must be quite a burden to bear.

        by cardinal on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:10:30 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  my only answer is :D (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    GreatDane, gooners, BDsTrinity, sricki

    Republicans secret dream = the impeachment of Bo the Dog LOL

    by LaurenMonica on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 08:48:53 AM PDT

  •  Those northeast numbers (7+ / 0-)

    So ... how's that NH (open) Senate thing lookin' for ya, Steele?

  •  Yet HannityRushLevin etal drone on and on and on. (5+ / 0-)

    ..and now a word from our sponsor.

  •  Stepping in dog doody is more popular (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Matt Z, sricki, Liberalindependent28

    than the GOP in the NE.  Is 6% with the MOE?

    Now with their party out of power, the GOP is flailing more then Mitch McConnell's jowls on a playground swing. S. Colbert

    by christomento on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 08:51:13 AM PDT

  •  Well I expect they will pick up seats in the (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Clarknt67, Liberalindependent28

    South with those numbers.

    •  not that many left to grab (5+ / 0-)

      we are almost totally realigned down here already, a shift aided by the brilliant addition of the so-called "majority minority" gerrymandered African American districts which have helped destroy the Democratic Party as a competitive entity in the South.

      •  Yup: good news - bad news scenario ... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Matt Z, Clarknt67, sethyeah

        Good news is GOPosaurs will crush Dems in South and ZDems have no hope of gaining any seats in the South.

        Bad news is that the great majority of those seat are already in the hands of GOPosaurs (the few Southern Dems are well entrenched incumbents so it will be difficult for GOPosaurs to defeat them).  So much for retaking the House or the Senate.

        Then they came for me - and by that time there was nobody left to speak up.

        by DefendOurConstitution on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 08:59:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Yep (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Matt Z, jayskew, sethyeah

        VA, NC, FL, and TX are all clearly trending blue.  That might retract a bit if it's a horrible election for Dems, of course.  But as you noted, the other areas, which may or may not be trending, don't have much red left to gain.

        "Everyone is stupid but me" must be quite a burden to bear.

        by cardinal on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:12:37 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  They'll be losing one in Louisiana for sure (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      So I don't know how well they'll be doing in the rest of the south.  Most of the seats are so badly redistricted that it's all but impossible unless you have a retirement or a corrupt bastard.  As it's been the repubs who have been retiring and or going to jail, their seats have been more vulnerable.

      This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

      by DisNoir36 on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 08:57:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  In fairness, Repub favorability doesn't matter... (5+ / 0-)

    The incumbents in power will get thrown out if there is general discontent. Its not as if the Dems were particularly popular in 2006...they just weren't Repubs. If this economy starts producing some jobs to go along with the profits and health care and climate change pass, Obama will be the Man and there will be opportunities for Dem pickups in 2010.

  •  The thing that worries me is that if the GOP (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Matt Z, Greasy Grant, gooners

    continues to lose House seats and Senate seats in 2010 that it will increasingly become MORE Conservative. The Republicans who emerge from the primary battles will be telling. If they pick far right candidates like Rubio from Florida and Toomey from PA they will likely lose those races. However, the Republicans that remain are the shrill voices that don't provide any 'loyal' opposition. I mean, arguably, they don't already. However, it's just unnerving to think that one major political party in this country could literally become 'the finge' in which most of its moderating elements and people are gone.

    I'd like more Progressives to be elected to Congress in 2010, but that dynamic I described above will be something to watch.

  •  I wonder how the West breaks down (3+ / 0-)

    whether there's a similar split

    West coast states + HI

    v. other Western states.

    To phrase the question differently - is there a similar anti-Obama effect in the Mountain West states?

    I hope; therefore, I can live.

    by tietack on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 08:53:43 AM PDT

  •  Nice info but let's keep in mind (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pucknomad, jayskew

    President Snowe is from Maine.

  •  The Dixie Chicks and Natalie Maines forever ! (5+ / 0-)

    "Course I'm respectable. I'm old. Politicians, ugly buildings, and whores all get respectable if they last long enough." Noah Cross - Chinatown

    by LakePipes on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 08:55:54 AM PDT

  •  Kos... (4+ / 0-)

    Once again - I'm begging you - stop conflicting your favorability poll with and approval poll.

    "In fact, [the Republicans] understand that if Barack Obama has a BLT sandwich tomorrow for lunch, they will try to ban bacon." - Congressman Alan Grayson

    by RichM on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 08:55:58 AM PDT

  •  Dump money into the midwest. n/t (0+ / 0-)
  •  March on Savanah (0+ / 0-)

    Bring back General Sherman.

    "It stinks." - Jay Sherman, Film Critic.

    by angry liberaltarian on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 08:56:58 AM PDT

  •  The danger: non-incumbent Republican candidates (6+ / 0-)

    I keep hearing repeated on cable news and here on Kos that the Republicans' disastrous poll numbers means that they are overestimating their chances to gain seats in 2010, but i am not so sure.

    The issue is that because of their supermajority, Democrats will have a lot more seats to defend, and will often be defending against a Republican candidate who is not necessarily tainted by the Republicans in Washington.  In a mid-term election with possibly still high unenployment numbers, it's the incumbents that are in most danger, regardless of party.  

    But the problem is that with the stump Republican party still left, Republicans are by an large only remaining in deep, deep red districts/states where their seats are completely safe from any Democratic challenger.  Conversely, a lot of the seats that the Democrats gained in the past 2 elections tend to be in purple districts/states where anti-incumbent sentiment could make the difference.  

    So my warning to my fellow Democrats is this: don't take any comfort whatsoever in these poll numbers.  I think we will be in for a hellacious fight in 2010, and we will have to fight tooth and nail just to limit the losses to maybe 10 to 20 house seats and 3 to 5 senate seats.  That will still leave us with comfortable majorities in both houses, but any bungled campaigns due to arrogance could trim our margins even further.

  •  48% (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Minerva, Liberalindependent28

    is the (generic) ceiling in the south for repubs.

  •  Without South - the US leads the 21st Century. (4+ / 0-)

    With the South, the US is dragging itself out of the 19th.

    Easy pickings, I'd think.

    "If you don't use your majorities, you lose your majorities."

    by SteinL on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 08:57:46 AM PDT

  •  The West (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    and its 12/75 number ...

    If we presume that much of the 12% is from UT/ID/WY (along with eastern WA/OR and other ruby-red precincts), the R's are in for a slaughter anywhere remotely "competitive".

  •  Still nervous about Dodd... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    ...things just continue to - frankly - suck for him. There's so many Dems here in CT who could throw down against Simmons, there are days when to be honest I just wish Dodd would step aside and let one of them rum.

    "The revolution's just an ethical haircut away..." Billy Bragg

    by grannyhelen on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 08:58:15 AM PDT

  •  You know what these numbers mean (8+ / 0-)

    This is great news for John McCain!  

    Sorry, I've always wanted to do that but someone else usually beats me to it.

  •  Still they'll clobber the Dems in '10 (7+ / 0-)

    I know because the media told me so. Just like they told me the Obama/McCain thing was just too close to call, and a big nail-baiter!!!

    "Hope will never be silent"--Harvey Milk

    by Scott Wooledge on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 08:58:33 AM PDT

  •  Can we compel secession, I wonder? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Tuffie, Geotpf

    You know, tell the South the whole civil war thing was our mistake and to just go, then?

    The data and analysis of these polls are among the best in the business, surely.  But, I think as far as NoNo counting his 2010 chickens, he's been getting a lot of help.

  •  Possible explanation: (9+ / 0-)

    It appears as if many southern Democrats may be in jail.

    Slap it. Shoot it. Kaboot it.

    by adios on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 08:59:56 AM PDT

    •  Perfect (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Where are the fundamentalists in religion and women's "place"?  Where the least liberal in all areas of life? Where the least faith in public administration, good governance, government by the people, making ones own choices and decisions, and most in thrall to authoritarians? This map says it all. It shows where the "warrior cult" is strong, punishment and the death penalty are popular.

      Most liberal, tolerant, faithful to the scientific method, women's rights, good governance, democracy and the Constitution: Look at those beautiful green states.

      No Public Option, No Re-Election. It's not complicated.

      by mrobinson on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:39:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Paging Nate Silver - Are you there, Nate? (2+ / 0-)

    Here's what I would like to know. If you look at historical data, what does an 8% advantage in the West translate into in terms of House Seats? And so on, for the other regions.

    Then multiply by the number of seats available in each region. That is, if an 8% Democratic advantage normally means the Democrats will win 55% of the seats, and there are 100 House seats in the Western states, then that translate into a 55 - 45 margin in that region. Repeat for all 3 regions; compare to current status; predict shift in House composition for 2010.

    Repeat as new polling data comes in.

    In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; but in practice, there always is a difference. - Yogi Berra

    by blue aardvark on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:00:42 AM PDT

  •  Very Interesting KOS and it gave me Hope (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    About the 2010 Midterms.  I would like it very much if we can get the young people to VOTE in the Midterms.  Isn't it a better country, when everyone elects Congress instead leaving it to the over-60 crowd, who always vote?

  •  Have we mentioned (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Greasy Grant, roadbear

    that when they went to the Southern Strategy with Nixson they sent themselves up for this.
    Once you say " hey let me try to get all these racists" on my band wagon. You end up riding in a very big empty.
    They included the religious right later on with Reagen, you start pushing your thinkers out and you get......


    Thats right bing bing

    welcome to the end of an era.

    Fear Accompanies the possibility of Death, Calm sheppard's it's certainty

    by rageagnstmach on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:02:29 AM PDT

  •  A National Party No More ... (7+ / 0-)

    Maybe someone can write a book.

  •  Back to my broken record (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Miss Blue

    Grassley is not "invincible"!

  •  Limbaugh is the GOP's head, Beck is their (0+ / 0-)

    Spokeperson, Hannity as Nancy Reagan said once is just the GOP waiter not that big inside the party :( lol

    Republicans secret dream = the impeachment of Bo the Dog LOL

    by LaurenMonica on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:05:04 AM PDT

  •  What states are in which region? (3+ / 0-)

    Geographic breakdown is totally the nazz. But for us detail weenies, which states are South? NE? Midwest? West?

    On behalf of detail derangement syndrome sufferers everywhere, thank you.

    •  Markos had a diary several months back... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      some other george, Matt Z, sethyeah

      which broke the nation down into four quadrants.  If I had time I'd search for it.  IIRC there was a different breakdown for House districts than for the Senate, to give each quadrant roughly 1/4 of the total members in each chamber.

      Barack Obama in the Oval Office: There's a black man who knows his place.

      by Greasy Grant on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:13:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It's linked in the diary (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      some other george, sethyeah

      at the "just from last week's edition" link.

      The first thing that jumps out at me is how much bigger (population-wise) the South is than the other three regions.  So "just a regional party" isn't as bad as it sounds.

      "Everyone is stupid but me" must be quite a burden to bear.

      by cardinal on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:21:01 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  A modest proposal (0+ / 0-)

      Before the 2008 election, Nate Silver ( divided the states into eleven regions as follows:

      New England (34 EV):  CT, MA, ME, NH, RI, VT.
      Acela (62 EV):  DC, DE, MD, NJ, NY.
      Rust Belt (69 EV):  IN, MI, OH, PA.
      North Central (48 EV):  IA, IL, MN, WI.
      Prairie (17 EV):  KS, NE, ND, SD.
      Big Sky (18 EV):  AK, ID, MT, UT, WY.
      Pacific (77 EV):  CA, HI, OR, WA.
      Southwest (29 EV):  AZ, CO, NM, NV.
      Gulf Coast (58 EV):  AL, LA, MS, TX.
      South Coast (78 EV):  FL, GA, NC, SC, VA.
      Highlands (48 EV):  AR, KY, MO, OK, TN, WV.

      Clearly, eleven regions are too many, and some of them are so underpopulated that stable estimates are impossible.  So, I propose the following compromise:

      Pacific:  Pacific as above.  77 electoral votes.

      Southeast:  South Coast as above.  78 electoral votes.

      Northeast:  New England + Acela + PA.  117 electoral votes.

      West:  Southwest + Big Sky + Prairie + OK.  71 electoral votes.

      Midwest:  North Central + IN + OH + MI + MO + WV.  112 electoral votes.

      South:  Gulf Coast + AR + KY + TN.  83 electoral votes.

      As a matter of fact, I DO drive a Volvo.

      by KTinOhio on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 12:42:09 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  On second thought... (0+ / 0-)

        West Virginia (5 EV) probably belongs in the South, and the same could possibly be said of Missouri (11 EV).

        As a matter of fact, I DO drive a Volvo.

        by KTinOhio on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 01:02:17 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The Numbers (0+ / 0-)

          After moving West Virginia to the South and leaving Missouri in the Midwest, the 2008 election looked like this:

          Northeast (117 EV):  21.16% of the total vote, of which 59.88% went to Obama and 38.71% went to McCain.

          Midwest (107 EV):  22.34% of the total vote, of which 54.90% went to Obama and 43.47% went to McCain.

          Southeast (78 EV):  16.96% of the total vote, of which 49.74% went to Obama and 49.25% went to McCain.

          South (88 EV):  14.96% of the total vote, of which 56.85% went to McCain and 41.92% went to Obama.

          West (71 EV):  10.19% of the total vote, of which 53.38% went to McCain and 44.76% went to Obama.

          Pacific (77 EV):  14.39% of the total vote, of which 60.22% went to Obama and 37.54% went to McCain.

          National figures:  Obama 52.87%, McCain 45.60%.

          Hmmm ... I didn't realize how much larger Northeast and Midwest were than the other regions ... perhaps Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia should form a separate region.

          Northeast (96 EV):  16.58% of the total vote, of which 61.37% went to Obama and 37.21% went to McCain.

          Midwest (70 EV):  14.18% of the total vote, of which 55.33% went to Obama and 43.14% went to McCain.

          South (83 EV):  14.42% of the total vote, of which 56.90% went to McCain and 41.90% went to Obama.

          New Region - Mideast (63 EV):  13.28% of the total vote, of which 53.79% went to Obama and 44.55% went to McCain.

          Other regions unchanged.

          As a matter of fact, I DO drive a Volvo.

          by KTinOhio on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 02:41:18 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  11 is not too many: underpop & Senate (0+ / 0-)

        means Senate seats easy to buy.  Look at Baucus, Rangel, and the rest of the gang of six on Finance Committee health care:  all tiny state senators, almost all from the mountain west (plus Maine). Big Sky is the reddest region in the country.

        Nate Silver's regions make a lot more sense than Kos's antique census regions.

        South Coast's 78 EVs went 55 for Obama 23 for McCain.  Doesn't sound so red, huh?

        Maybe some of you haven't seen these maps:
        Don't stop at the first one; scroll to the bottom.

        Or maybe kos just likes harping on the south and encouraging Civil War Tourette's.

        "Reserve your right to think, for even to think wrongly is better than not to think at all." --Hypatia of Alexandria, c.400

        by jayskew on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 07:10:26 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The Census Regions and Divisions... (0+ / 0-)

          ...don't make as much political sense.


          New England:  CT, MA, ME, NH, RI, VT.
          Middle Atlantic:  NJ, NY, PA.


          East North Central:  IL, IN, MI, OH, WI.
          West North Central:  IA, MN, MO, ND, NE, KS, SD.


          South Atlantic:  DC, DE, FL, GA, MD, NC, SC, VA, WV.
          East South Central:  AL, KY, MS, TN.
          West South Central:  AR, LA, OK, TX.


          Mountain:  AZ, CO, ID, MT, NM, NV, UT, WY.
          Pacific:  AK, CA, HI, OR, WA.

          As a matter of fact, I DO drive a Volvo.

          by KTinOhio on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 10:37:17 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Nice work, Abe (0+ / 0-)

    I've said it before and am only half joking: Lincoln blew it with his 'Preserve the Union' routine.  Letting the South secede would have been the greatest thing we have ever done.  

    Andrew Mellon & GOP: 'In a Depression, assets return to their rightful owners'

    by Tuffie on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:09:07 AM PDT

  •  That Generic Congressional Ballot Ought To (0+ / 0-)

    motivate Northeastern old-style Republicans (like Lincoln Chafee) to start a new party cause after Snowe & Collins the GOPosaur will be extinct in New England (33 electoral votes and 12 senate seats).

    8%!?!  They're almost extinct in NY (another 31 electoral votes) as well.

    If there was a functioning brain in their midst they'd jettison the neocon, Atwater-Rove shallowness (as typified by Steele, Palin, and Boehner) but here's to hoping it's too late.

  •  Send Harry Reid Some Balls (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    horowitz, Matt Z, susanala

    I posted this comment in the section about extending unemployment benefits, but I think it's germane here as well.  

    One way to increase the progressive poll numbers is to ACTUALLY PASS SOME PROGRESSIVE LEGISLATION!  Here's my suggestion on how to generate some needed attention, without hanging anyone in effigy. If enough people do this, it will generate media attention, (balloon boy proved that it doesn't take much), and hopefully generate some action by the Senate leadership.

    Here's my recommendation on political grassroot tactics:

    The steps are:

    1.  Buy some golf balls (4 at least, maybe more).
    1.  Take two of them out of the package and send them to Harry Reid, with a comment along the lines of:

    "Since you seem to be lacking balls of your own, here's two that you can have."  Include the public option!

    1.  If needed, (depends on who your Representative and Senators are) send the other balls to your Member of Congress or Senators with a similar message.

    Virginia Common Sense

  •  Lookin good (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    in NY's 23 also

    Citizenship is a contact sport!

    by horowitz on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:11:18 AM PDT

  •  No wonder (0+ / 0-)

    he only visited New Orleans last week

    "The ultimate measure of a person is not where they stand in times of comfort and convenience but where they stand in times of challenge" - MLK

    by rickpolitic on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:14:09 AM PDT

    •  By all accounts he's had lower-level staffers (0+ / 0-)

      dealing with the issues in New Orleans that Bush Jr. neglected... but, yes, the electoral votes in Louisiana might not go his way, so Obama's personal involvement won't be as substantial.

      Barack Obama in the Oval Office: There's a black man who knows his place.

      by Greasy Grant on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:17:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  My condolences to all Dems and progressives (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Minerva, majcmb1, Blackacre

    ... who live in the south.

  •  I love that (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    you guys break down the poll by region.  It makes me rest a bit easier when thinking about 2012.

  •  Dem Southern Strategy (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Minerva, majcmb1, roadbear

    This shows the futility of trying to pander to Southern Blue Dogs by compromising core principles of the party.

    Be Democrats.  You won't win the South right now, but that's OK.  They're different from the rest of the country.  Concentrate on the West, and let the demographics shift in places like Texas and Florida bring the voters to you.

    You can lead a horse to water - unless you're Harry Reid.

    by nightsweat on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:17:40 AM PDT

  •  Wow. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Minerva, sethyeah

    Consider that "South" includes northern Virginia, Atlanta metro and south Florida. So these numbers skew high (just as Pennsyltucky causes the Northeast to skew low). This is about as deep a schism as you can get.

  •  Regionalization and radicalization. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Minerva, sethyeah

    The Republicans are undergoing two -- I think independent -- changes: regionalization and radicalization.

    WaPo's "The Fix" column has a piece on the wingnut running against Crist for the Senate nomination. If he wins, we stand a good chance of getting one more pickup.

    I think the lunatic center of the Republican Party may yet drive off the sane fringe.

    If "con" is the antonym of "pro," what is the antonym of "progress"?

    by Frank Palmer on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:18:10 AM PDT

  •  Not looking so hot in the south, either. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Minerva, jayskew, sethyeah

    48-37 ain't exactly reason to joy dance.

    For that matter, with the exception of Obama's personal popularity, the south isn't much further out from the MidWest and West than the NorthEast is.

    Free speech? Yeah, I've heard of that. Have you?

    by dinotrac on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:18:20 AM PDT

  •  We will revisit the civil war (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    because those issues of militarism and  white male supremacy were never discussed in the open. Andrew Jackson would not have wanted tax money to go for any social benefit.

    •  Have You Seen This... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      kitebro, Rosebuddear, sethyeah

      Police, vets, active military, and militia are being recruited to disobey President Obama's orders and, true to Rovian double-speak, they call themselves 'The Oathkeepers.'

      •  Usually I'm not that fond of Chris Matthews (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        kitebro, majcmb1, susanala

        but he hit the ball out of the park on this one.

        I was inspired to go out to the Oathkeeper's website and poke around - what I wanted to know was, ok, did your big concern for the Constitution start during the Bush administration, or is it just now, with President Obama in office, that you're suddenly so CONCERNED?

        Hmmmmm. No dates on anything. But I notice that no article posted out there is any earlier than 2009. Gee, ya think?

        IOKIYAR. Again. Thanks for putting up that link, majcmb1. Great to see all these bozos suddenly so concerned about civil liberties and the Constitution, ain't it?

        I notice the guy never did answer Chris Matthew's question "WHAT foreign troops, exactly?"

        LOLOL. I'd like to know the answer to that one myself.

      •  Police and military need to take an oath (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        that they will obey all orders. If they can't do that, they should seek employment elsewhere.

        Why is Olympia Snowe being groomed to be our next President by the Dems in the Senate?

        by kitebro on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 11:11:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Boehner's approval among women: 7% (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Surprised, though to see Obama's approve / disapprove tied among whites overall.  

    Counterintuitive that this squares with other findings (i.e., seems to imply disproportionate numbers of minorities polled in other regions).

    The age, gender, and race splits are all mind-boggling.

    We must pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off, and begin again the work of remaking America.

    by Minerva on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:20:16 AM PDT

  •  A bit scary how many people live in the "south" (0+ / 0-) skew the numbers like they do.

    What states are you counting as "the south" btw, I haven't been able to find it, though I'm sure it's there somewhere.

    The Raptor of Spain: A Webserial
    From Muslim Prince to Christian King: A Tale of Alternate History

    by MNPundit on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:27:55 AM PDT

  •  Unfortunately this helps them with the Senate. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MrJersey, jayskew, sethyeah

    Repubs have 35-40 senate seats. This reminds me the root of all problems is that small states like Idaho  with 500,000 people have two senators and large states like California with 55 million have 2 senators.

    What this means is having the south strongly in favor of them gives them lot of power.

  •  The Republican Party is revenge for the (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Civil war in the same way that for some al Qaeda is revenge for the Crusades.

    Most normal people can't stay angry about events for more than a few weeks, maybe years or even decades in cases than involve death. After a few centuries you'd have trouble figuring out who was related to those involved without DNA samples.

    We have only just begun and none too soon.

    by global citizen on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:32:43 AM PDT

    •  DNA samples won't help -- (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      global citizen

      remember, your number of ancestors go up exponentially per generation unless you are extremely inbred. After a century, you have around 30 ancestors -- after two 510 -- after three 8192 -- after four 131070 and so on.

      Unless you come from some extremely unusual locality where people only have sex with people from within the community for centuries, you're probably pretty well mixed. Even after one century, given the well-known high rates of "secret fathers", the odds that your DNA matches your claimed identity get pretty low.

  •  I'm shocked! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Well not really shocked, not even mildly surprised.  I live down here and quite frankly; they are at least two decades behind in just about everything.  The clue should have been the very high percentage of birthers down here.  I just had a loon in the bar yesterday go on a rant about POTUS being a Kenyan and not born in this country.  "Kenyan" is now code for nigger down here in the South.  Every single known racist that comes in my bar thinks he was born in Kenya and that he is a Muslim.  This doesn't waver an iota.  Let's face it, these people are inbred, ignorant rubes and there is nothing that will change their minds, EVER.

    ~War is Peace~Freedom is Slavery~Ignorance is Strength~ George Orwell "1984"

    by Kristina40 on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:34:57 AM PDT

  •  Base support is important - apathy will hurt Dems (0+ / 0-)

    But so what, if Republicans can't raise their own numbers?

    The number that matters are the likely voters and base support within each party because the Republican base is fired up and if Obama and Democrats continue to NOT deliver on the major issues of the day, cynicism and apathy will grow within the Democratic base and they will stay home on election day. Republicans might not gain many new voters but their base is charged and will reward their obstructionists at the ballot box. The Obama WH & Democrat Congressional just continue to spit on their supporters. It's stupid.

  •  gallup had him at 50% yesterday (0+ / 0-)

    Not sure why but Obama is tanking in the Gallup tracking poll. He may go under 50% today. rasmussen of course has him under 50.
    I guess they have been doing a lot of polling in the south.

    •  Could those numbers represent some disffection (0+ / 0-)

      among liberal/progressives who are souring on Obama because of the slow pace of change on : investigating the crimes of the Bush regime, failing to investigate secret wiretapping, mixed signals on gay and lesbian issues, dithering on the closure of Guantanamo, dithering on Public Option and single payer health insurance, failure to hold the big banks accountable, the same old faces in Treasury and Economic advisors, and numerous other issues where the pace of change is excruciatingly slow.  Add that disaffection to the people who just plain hate his ass because he is a black Democrat and that may explain some of those poll numbers.

      And it feels like I'm livin'in the wasteland of the free ~ Iris DeMent, 1996

      by MrJersey on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:57:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The South (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kitebro, Front Toward Enemy

    I guess 'The Southern Strategy' worked well in 1968- and for nearly the next 30 years- now it is coming home to roost for the GOP-

  •  Given the secession talk, may I suggest a title (0+ / 0-)


    GOP looks great in South, not so much in the rest of America.

    Fight 'em 'til Hell freezes over, and then fight 'em on the ice. - David Van Os

    by sagra on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:45:04 AM PDT

  •  This is so frustrating (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    to a Southern Democrat.  But at least I know the rest of the country has sense.  And the South will get dragged along, kicking and screaming like always.

    •  Take heart (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      before virtual reality, there was virtual representation. Your interests are represented by the majority if not your particular congressional delegation. The Republicans are truly becoming the rump party. Unfortunately for you and others similarly situated, it is a rump located primarily in the south.

      Healthcare is a human right, not a commodity.

      by nomorerepukes on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 10:34:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  What's a rump party anyway? (0+ / 0-)

        the GOP remains a Southern regional rump party

        Ass party?  Butt party?  Rump party?  Am I translating something incorrectly?

        Regional I understand... rump, not so clear, although I've heard if for years.

        •  In the true sense of the term (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          a rump party is one which remains after a major faction splits off to form a new party. In the case of the current Republicans it is not so much a split and formation of a new party, which we all know it is not, as it is a constant bleeding out of membership or affiliation. If you start as the head and work your way down, you are left with rump at a certain point. But we all know that the only thing remaining with the Republicans is the asshole, out of which they speak.

          Healthcare is a human right, not a commodity.

          by nomorerepukes on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 12:25:25 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  one that consistently takes it in the ass? (0+ / 0-)

          Sponge Bob, Mandrake, Cartoons. That's how your hard-core islamahomocommienazis work.

          by Benito on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 01:20:11 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Southern Liberals always reminded me of (0+ / 0-)

      Soviet refuseniks.

      Sponge Bob, Mandrake, Cartoons. That's how your hard-core islamahomocommienazis work.

      by Benito on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 01:19:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Always great stuff, kos (0+ / 0-)

    Maybe YOU should run for office!

    Visit to stop climate change.

    by bogmanoc on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:48:20 AM PDT

  •  I have a question: (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    If the crazies don't participate in the census this time around as has been suggested in various reports, how does that bode for redistricting/gerrymandering etc?

    Give me that mop. I need a job

    by bryker on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 09:50:57 AM PDT

  •  Ah, the sensible Northeast (0+ / 0-)

    If only I could find a decent job where the taxes, housing prices, traffic, and crowding were tolerable, I'd still live somewhere up thar.

    Tennessee might be sickeningly red, have the most incompetent and failed criminal justice system in the country, and rank 47th-50th in just about every other indicator of social advancement and wellbeing; but the mountains are gorgeous, the weather is decent, water is generally plentiful, I can drive at just about any speed I wish, and (at least in area where I live and work) I don't have to tolerate throngs of hoomins or sit through 4-5 traffic light cycles to make a left turn during rush hour.

  •  Wow. The Northeast Loves Them Some Obama (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kitebro, raincrow

    And Democrats in general.

    Hopefully that translates into a victory for No on 1 in Maine...

    * this space available *

    by JanF on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 10:03:15 AM PDT

  •  "Susan Hutchison is basically Sarah Palin (0+ / 0-)

    minus the political experience." The race is for the top job in King County, WA, Seattle+ 3 million others. Polls show a close race.

    "Dow Constantine's opponent, Susan Hutchison, is a political lightweight, a partisan extremist, a shitty fit for the most liberal county in the state, and a blow-dried, brain-dead, lying, hypocritical, and cowardly piece of shit. Oh, and she's a closet Republican, too. You have to be a self-defeating idiot—or a right-wing douchebag, which is basically the same thing—to want her as county executive."

    The Stranger endorsement, King County Executive:  Dow Constantine

    Republican strategy ALERT: Turn elected positions to "nonpartisan."

    "Dow Constantine is on the King County Council, has worked in the state legislature, and has been calling Hutchison out on her deceptive bullshit ever since she jumped into this "nonpartisan" race (which is only a nonpartisan race because Hutchison helped pay for a campaign to make it so, allowing her to run as a stealth Republican)."

    County budget, $4 billion, population, 3 million. Dow has a Masters in Urban Planning and is now president of the King County Council. Susan Hutchison is a retired news anchor and charity fund raiser. No public administration experience! Yet, polls claim a close race! My physical therapist says the county should be run like a business - no it shouldn't. It should be run by a public administrator. We already had the first MBA president - George Bush who trashed the world economy and our budget.  

    "Hutchison is a fan of George W. Bush, Mike Huckabee, Dino Rossi, and Dave Reichert. She also hates county government more than anyone—or, at least, that's her "populist" platform—and in pursuit of the votes of rural guv'mint bashers, she's been wandering around the region sounding like a Northwest version of Grover "Cut government down to the size where we can drown it in the bathtub" Norquist."

    Somebody talk me down - why is this a close race?

    No Public Option, No Re-Election. It's not complicated.

    by mrobinson on Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 10:25:59 AM PDT

  •  "Here's what those other pollsters don't do..." (0+ / 0-)


    No matter how shitty the south is, on average, it's for some reason considered unfair to actually point it out.

  •  My 2-bit assessment of Southern psychology (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Let me preface this by saying that although I was born and raised in SoCal, my parents were from the deep South, we moved to Virginia 45 years ago, I've lived in the Southern Appalachians ~37 years, and have inhabited its rednecky beer joints for a good 13 years. Them's my bona fides for the pop psychology that follows.

    Think how few generations have elapsed since the Civil War -- the last people born during the conflict have died within my lifetime. The South still bears the gruesome, disfiguring scars of the complete devastation it suffered in its defeat, and in the depredations and punishments inflicted by the North in the decades thereafter. My take is that the South only began to re-emerge and rebuild itself after WWII.

    Consider a society in which a huge percentage of the population is suffering PTSD and major social and geographic dislocation. The losers are at the mercy of the victors, with the shit inevitably rolling downhill, weaker members of communities and families suffering disproportionately and helplessly as the stronger act out their rage and trauma, and that shit subsequently rolling down to succeeding generations.

    So much of the culture here reflects, to my eye, the grosser abuses of absolute patriarchy -- dominance imposed within the broader society by outsiders with political power and wealth, and within families and communities by people inartfully determined to jamfit their lives back into some kind of shape that resembles "normal." THIS is what the old-time, hate-and-fear-and-hell-filled conservative churches are reflecting, IMNSHO. The gross, obvious hypocrisy of people who can commit hate crimes against black people while being completely convinced they are good Christians -- symptoms of splitting and dissociation induced by terrible trauma. Fearful, enraged, struggling, traumatized people who, particularly in more isolated areas, recreated God in their own image, had to have scapegoats upon whom to vent, were compelled by inner disorder to enforce a controlled outward social order in the form of a rigid class and race structure.

    It is no wonder to me that the South is as it is. My rule of thumb is that it takes at least 3 generations for an idea to wash out of the human system. We're maybe ~1.5 generations past the death of the last people born during the Civil War -- coincidentally ~1.5 generations past the 1964 Civil Rights Act. So I figure it will be at least 1 more full generation before the South substantively works its way out of its post-Civil-War trauma. I think we can see this happening right now as a younger generation grows up far less preoccupied by racism and homophobia.

    Until then the God of Hellfire and Damnation instead of the God of Love, a Christianity overarchingly preoccupied with Satan and dark uncontrollable forces, hatred of The Other -- xenophobia, racism, homophobia, sexism -- hillbilly heroin, and other standard demons of the human unconscious are going to be a prominent subcurrent in this culture, which IMNSHO still needs so much time, love, compassion, and relearning in order to finish grieving and move beyond the consequences of war and defeat.

  •  The South May Love the GOP, But They Also Loved (0+ / 0-)

    Slavery.  Southerners are NOT mainstream America, good Christians, patriotic Americans, or anything else worthwhile.

  •  I call BS on the 7 percent northeast unfavrable (0+ / 0-)

    That seems statistically impossible.  I mean at least 10% of people must watch Fox and listen to Rush.  That number seems way to low.  I would buy a number like 20%.  That would seem more realistic.

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