The recent news that Scozzafava has suspended her campaign is another clue to the future of the national Republican Party, a future that does not bode well for its survival as the other national party.
This was clearly a victory for Sarah Palin, the turning-hard-right Tim Pawlenty, the Tea Partiers, Dick Armey, and all those who make up the very extremist right margin of the "Republican Party." I place the name of the party in quotes, because, though they are nominal Republicans, the extremists chose to support someone running against their own party. A kind of Lieberman for Lieberman Party, but on that side of the aisle.
Scozzafava's decision to pull out of the campaign, but not to declare for the conservative Tea Bagger (Scozzafava is a moderate Republican), demonstrates the only move left for the real Republican Party faithful - to withhold their support for the extremists, or "quietly support" the Democrat.
This latest move in the very conservative upstate New York district is a clear rejection of the current and former leaders of the Republican Party - Chairman Michael Steele and former Speaker Newt Gingrich. Their power to guide their party to a more nationally winning strategy has been visibly rendered impotent by Sarah Palin and her Palinistas. And however people like Peggy Noonan or Colin Powell or Mike Huckabee or Dick Cheney might want to dismiss and forget Sarah Palin, she is the most potent symbol of what motivates the base of their shrinking party. That's a fact.
I suspect that there has been a thread in Cheney's recent attacks on Obama as "dithering" to attempt to draw a historic guide from the Nixon years...George W Bush as Richard M Nixon, a reviled, and failed President, followed by a populist Democrat in the body of Jimmy Carter (hence the "dithering" attack), followed by the resurgence and rise of Republican conservatism in the Ronald Reagan. (Does this mean Evil Dick = Nolo Contendre Spiro?) Unfortunately for them, I believe that a better corollary may be that Sarah Palin is their George McGovern, and the Republicans are positioning themselves for decades out of power.
Don't misunderstand, I supported George McGovern in 1972. And I remain proud of my support. And I believe it was ultimately good for the soul of my party to have been out in the wilderness for a while. We came back, and came back ready to change the world, and we elected the first African American (and first Hawai'i born) President of the United States of America, and we are on the brink of changing 1/6 of our national economy in order to provide the human right to health care to most (I hope all) of our fellow Americans.
All that being said, I suggest people watch the Republicans for three fun things:
- More attempts to use language to parallel Obama to Carter, they think it's their only lifeline back to the Reagan years. When you're short of substance, find Bill Kristol to make up sh*t. They have dropped the most obvious efforts to Carterize but subtlety has never been their strong suit.
- The continued neutering of the former Republican power base, in a gleeful and vengeful way by the Palinistas. See what Mitt Romney does. He knows he's about to vanish into current Party oblivion if he doesn't get on board like the obvious self-serving weasel Tim Pawlenty. What'll you do, Mittens?
- The final revenge of the moderate and liberal gossamer wings of the GOP. They will understated and civil, as white gloves are taught to be, but the time will come when they will either retake their party or abandon it to the margins and join us.
Grab some popcorn drizzled in drawn butter and nutritional yeast (or the dressing of your choice), it should be an interesting dramedy. (btw, I don't think we need to sweat 2010 losses, we'll still control Congress if the Dems can get some aspect of HCR online by early spring 2010.)