The New Jersey gubernatorial election was a referendum—on Jon Corzine.
New Jersey voters don’t give a damn about national politics in gubernatorial elections (which happen in off years here). New Jersey voters care about economics, especially in gubernatorial elections. And when you say economics in New Jersey it means taxes, and when you say taxes in New Jersey it means property taxes. We have some of the highest property taxes in the nation due to a confluence of factors, mostly a history of municipal control of public schools and services.
It's often said, and true: Jersey voters love to hate their politicians. Corzine pissed off 70% of the state’s electorate by suspending a popular property tax rebate program, a decision he made after campaigning on promises to increase property tax relief. And it wasn’t even a complete suspension—it mostly affected wealthier New Jerseyans. I know I got my Homestead Rebate check this year, and it wasn’t smaller than usual, though there’s a chance this was due to the fact that my family’s income was less in 2008 than in previous years. Still, this was enough to get the average New Jerseyan really ticked off, enough to give creedence to the other garbage spewed by people at NJ101.5, Faux News, and CNBC.
Whatever arguments there are for and against the decisions Corzine has made as governor in charge of a state with a host of serious problems, he has been tone deaf when it comes to managing his fellow party members in the legislature and getting the public behind him--much like Governor Jim Florio, who also made some politically unpopular decisions in the early 1990s and lacked the ability to effectively communicate with the public, a failure that helped elect Christie Whitman in 1993.
Like Florio, Corzine tried too little, too late to rehabilitate his image. In Corzine’s case, he attempted to make the election about Christie and Bush (again). Now Christie is indeed a Bush/Rove creation, but Corzine severely underestimated the potential damage of the anger he had inspired. It’s probably easy to do that when you’ve bought your way into the statehouse and you’re used to the arrogant "I don’t have to explain myself to you" culture of the financial world.
Despite making up about 13% in the polls, Corzine was unable to defend himself or deflect the anger. A solid margin of NJ voters mistakenly saw Christie as the lesser of two evils, and at the very least, just not Corzine.
Christie was also able to gain a serious edge over Corzine by turning things around in Bergen County. No Governor wins without taking Bergen. Corzine beat Forrester in 2005 with the aid of Joseph Ferriero, the Bergen Democratic boss who had turned Bergen from a solid Republican to a solid Democratic county (Corzine won Bergen by 14% in 2005). Ferriero resigned under indictment and subsequent conviction on federal corruption charges. Who was responsible for the investigation of Ferriero? US District Attorney Chris Christie.
Now, I’m not defending corrupt Democratic pols. They are a plague on this state’s Democratic party. But let’s not pretend Chris Christie isn’t anything but self-serving, politically astute, and ambitious. He went after Ferriero because he knew the importance of Bergen County in the election. He used his position as US District Attorney to set up his gubernatorial bid.
Despite everything against him, I still believe this was Corzine’s to lose, and it was his lack of political acumen that did him in and has made him a lousy governor—boardroom executive skills do not automatically translate to good statehouse executive skills. I held my nose and voted for Corzine, but I think a lot of people who ordinarily vote Democratic didn't.
My prediction? Wait five minutes and you'll see Christie's approval drop below 50% as well--especially if he winds up in court for his actions as a district attorney. Talk about impending buyer's remorse.