There's finally been a poll in Nebraska on Tom White and it shows him to be within the margin of error. The Omaha World-Herald released a poll today of 607 voters in NE-02. Lee Terry is at 44 percent and Tom White is at 39 percent, with 12 percent undecided. Yes, I know that newspaper polls are notorious for being inaccurate. However, as far as I know, this is the only poll that has been conducted, so it gives some idea, even if it's not completely accurate.
One thing to keep in mind is that the World-Herald has a rep as an extremely conservative paper, so it is unlikely that they are skewing the results in favor of Tom White.
I think the following from the article bear repeating:
“Anytime it’s within the margin of error, the candidate who is down can win,” said Randy Adkins, a political scientist at the University of Nebraska at Omaha.
A state senator from Omaha, White is making his first bid for Congress against Terry, a six-term congressman. The two have been turning up the heat in the race, with White trying to convince voters that a new face is needed in Washington and Terry saying White will go to Washington and toe the Democratic line.
The survey’s differing results between all registered voters and those who said they definitely planned to vote underscores what will be a pivotal factor in this race: turnout.
It is a huge task for White, who has to find a way to motivate his base and his supporters to go to the polls during an off-year election, when President Barack Obama is not at the top of the Democratic ticket.
It also is a year when Republicans appear to be more motivated than Democrats, in part because of the growing tea party movement and concern over the economy.
And it is a year in which there is no high-profile U.S. Senate or governor race on the ballot, which can typically generate interest in an election and drive more people to the polls.
But if White can turn “maybe” voters into actual voters, he has a shot.
“If White pulls this out and wins this, it’s because he’s been out mobilizing his base,” said Adkins.
So please, anyone from Nebraska, especially Omaha, if you can possibly jump on the OFA website this week and grab some folks to call, do so! If you want to contact the White campaign, the campaign web site is here. This is a race where GOTV is going to really matter!