Another week has passed in the 2012 campaign cycle, and this was a week where a lot of things were made absolutely clear for us:
- President Obama and Mitt Romney are locked in a coin flip battle for the White House.
(OR ... Obama is really up by 13 freaking points.)
- Florida Republican Sen. Marco Rubio is not being vetted as a potential vice-presidential nominee of the GOP.
(OR ... maybe he is being vetted, after all.)
- Former Democratic Sen. Bob Kerrey is in deep trouble as he tries to hold the Democratic open seat in Nebraska, according to a GOP pollster.
(OR ... actually ... a Democratic pollster had the same thing, too. But they did have reasonably good news for Barack Obama. So, y'know, there's that.)
Suffice to say, this was yet another week where trying to construct a consistent narrative about the state of the 2012 campaign proved a tad tricky. And while that is not as unusual as you might think less than five months out before an election, it is nevertheless kind of exasperating.
Do we know any more than we did a week ago? Not really, except that there seems to be an accumulating amount of evidence to suggest that there are quite a few more tossup races lying around than many in the pundit class are willing to admit, both at the presidential level and downballot. Data from places as politically diverse as Arizona, Montana, and Florida bear that out this week.
All this (and more!) in the "summer's here ... officially" edition of the Weekend Digest ...
THE BATTLE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE
AT THE POLLS: If you looked solely at national polling, this week would absolutely give you whiplash. While it should go without saying at this point that pollsters are not going to arrive at exactly the same conclusions, even when polling at the same time, this week got more than a little ridiculous. The total spread between pollsters (if you go by the most Romney-centric Rasmussen poll of the week) was an almost comical eighteen percentage points. On one end was the aforementioned House of Ras, which had Romney leading all week long, by margins between 2-5 points. On the other end of the predictive spectrum was Selzer (polling on behalf of Bloomberg), who put Barack Obama up 13 points on Mitt Romney. It was a jaw-dropping result, one that compelled Selzer to offer up an incredibly candid bit of introspection from Selzer in the Washington Post.
At the state level, the polls were, on balance, favorable for the president, especially when examined through the lens of the polling in the last few weeks. Quinnipiac, after showing Mitt Romney with a modest edge in Florida last time around, gave Barack Obama the four-point edge. PPP, polling for Project New America, may have produced a bigger stunner—a two-point race in Arizona (and that was before the immigration decision by the president last week). The only buzzkills were a pair of GOP-friendly polls in Michigan.
NATIONAL (Associated Press/GfK): Obama d. Romney (47-44)
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama tied with Romney (46-46)
NATIONAL (Pew Research): Obama d. Romney (50-46)
NATIONAL (PPP for Daily Kos/SEIU): Obama d. Romney (49-45)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (48-43)
NATIONAL (Selzer for Bloomberg Media): Obama d. Romney (53-40)
NATIONAL (YouGov): Obama tied with Romney (44-44)
ARIZONA (PPP for Project New West): Romney d. Obama (49-46)
COLORADO (PPP): Obama d. Romney (49-42)
FLORIDA (Quinnipiac): Obama d. Romney (46-42)
IOWA (We Ask America—R): Obama d. Romney (45-44)
MAINE (MassINC for WBUR): Obama d. Romney (48-34)
MICHIGAN (Mitchell Research): Obama d. Romney (47-46)
MICHIGAN (We Ask America—R): Romney d. Obama (45-43)
MONTANA (Rasmussen): Romney d. Obama (51-42)
NEBRASKA (Garin-Hart-Yang for Project New America): Romney d. Obama (52-40)
NEW HAMPSHIRE (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (48-43)
WASHINGTON (Elway Poll): Obama d. Romney (49-41)
WASHINGTON (PPP): Obama d. Romney (54-41)
WISCONSIN (Marquette Law School): Obama d. Romney (49-43)
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
(This week, as we have done for the other categories of electoral contests, we begin to recap a few key campaign events in the presidential election. This will be a feature from now through November).
- One sign that the general election campaign is officially on—the air war between the candidates is on in earnest. Both campaigns dropped a bunch of new ads this week, either via their campaigns or affiliated support groups. The one benefit of the ad war is that it clarifies for us exactly where the campaigns feel the battlegrounds lie. The common states in the Obama and Romney ad blitzes were: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. One Romney friendly PAC (Concerned Women for America) also might want to consult a polling map, as they dumped money on their ad in Minnesota and New Mexico (as well as Wisconsin, which is a more defensible choice).
- President Obama's decision on immigration was immediately met with Republican whining and bleating about how "political" a move it was (ignoring that it was also ... y'know ... the right thing to do). A new study by Latino Decisions showed that Barack Obama has enormous leads over Mitt Romney among Latino voters in those battleground states that have significant Latino populations. Most notably, in Arizona and Colorado, Obama's lead among Latinos is markedly wider than it was in the 2008 exit polls. Both candidates spoke to NALEO (the National Association of Latino Elected Officials) this week, and to say the speeches were a bit different would be a whale of an understatement.
- The story broke too late in the week to gauge any polling impact, but the new revelations about the extent of Bain Capital's participation in shipping jobs overseas cannot be good news for
John McCain Mitt Romney. His response wasn't much better, as my colleague David Nir pointed out yesterday (click the link for that absurd bit of tap dancing)
THE BATTLE FOR THE U.S. SENATE
AT THE POLLS: The theme for this week is a continuation on a theme that has been developing for quite some time. If the polling is right, the list of races that could come down to a handful of points on election night keeps growing and growing.
After looking like it was drifting away from the Democrats, PPP (on behalf of Project New America) polled Arizona and found that a pickup for the blue team is indeed possible, with Jeff Flake only up two points on Richard Carmona. The House of Ras also turned a head or two: after showing incumbent Democrat Jon Tester (Montana) down ten (which always felt a little bit absurd), they now have it back to a tossup, as well.
It's not all good news for the Democrats, though: after other pollsters showed Bill Nelson starting to forge a lead, Quinnipiac puts the margin back at four points. The Q poll has been a bit pessimistic, however, for Nelson, as this is actually an improvement for Nelson over their previous survey. Meanwhile, speaking of Nelsons, the race to replace Democrat Ben Nelson in Nebraska is looking really bad for the Democrats. When a GOP-sponsored poll pegs the margin at 25 points, and a Democratic poll pegs it at 14 points, that is less than happy news.
Finally, here is a race to watch: Wisconsin. Like the House of Ras, the new Marquette poll shows Tommy Thompson doing markedly better when paired with Democrat Tammy Baldwin than any other Republican. Unlike the Rassies, however, they polled the primary. And Thompson is far from a lock.
AZ-SEN (PPP for Project New West): Jeff Flake (R) 43, Richard Carmona (D) 41
(2014) CO-SEN (PPP): Sen. Mark Udall (D) 47, Bill Owens (R) 43; Udall 48, Mike Coffman (R) 39; Udall 48, Jane Norton (R) 38; Udall 48, John Suthers (R) 38; Udall 49, Tom Tancredo 39; Udall 49, Doug Lamborn (R) 36, Udall 50, Ken Buck (R) 35
FL-SEN (Quinnipiac): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 43, Connie Mack IV (R) 39; Nelson 45, Mike McCalister (R) 34; Nelson 47, George LeMieux (R) 32; Nelson 47, Dave Weldon (R) 31
FL-SEN—R (Quinnipiac): Connie Mack IV 41, George LeMieux 8, Mike McCalister 5, Dave Weldon 3
ME-SEN (MassINC for WBUR): Angus King (I) 50, Charlie Summers (R) 23, Cynthia Dill (D) 9
MI-SEN (Rasmussen): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 48, Pete Hoesktra (R) 39; Stabenow 48, Clark Durant (R) 37
MT-SEN (Rasmussen): Denny Rehberg (R) 49, Sen. Jon Tester (D) 47
NE-SEN (Garin-Hart-Yang for Project New America): Deb Fischer (R) 52, Bob Kerrey (D) 38
NE-SEN (Public Opinion Strategies for Fischer): Deb Fischer (R) 58, Bob Kerrey (D) 33
UT-SEN—R (BYU/Key Research): Sen. Orrin Hatch 56, Dan Liljenquist 25
WA-SEN (PPP): Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) 51, Michael Baumgartner (R) 36
WI-SEN (Marquette Law School): Tommy Thompson (R) 49, Tammy Baldwin (D) 41; Baldwin 44, Mark Neumann (R) 44; Baldwin 45, Jeff Fitzgerald (R) 39; Baldwin 45, Eric Hovde (R) 36
WI-SEN—R (Marquette Law School): Tommy Thompson 34, Mark Neumann 16, Eric Hovde 14, Jeff Fitzgerald 10
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- Speaking of Montana, do you think that Denny Rehberg might be running a bit scared? The Montana GOP launched an ad this week where they try to extol the independent streak of Rehberg, a member of the House for a decade. Among the votes they specifically cite, a vote against the Ryan Budget (Rehberg was one of four "nay" votes in the GOP), which the ad copy says "could harm the Medicare plan that so many of Montana's seniors rely on." Thanks, Montana GOP!
- The new Q poll makes it look like a foregone conclusion anyway, but Connie Mack's coronation in Florida looked more assured this week when his chief opponent, former (appointed) U.S. Sen. George LeMieux decided to hang them up. That leaves, realistically, former U.S. Rep. Dave Weldon as the biggest name left in the mix, but polls show that Weldon is deep in the weeds, and it is hard to imagine him being able to cobble together the resources to run a credible statewide campaign in a large (to say nothing of expensive) state like Florida. This really looks like Mack's race to lose, at this point.
- Finally, in New Mexico, here was an Air Ball finalist that underscores one of the points I have long held about elective politics: there is an internet, kids, so don't try to rewrite history. This week's victim of that maxim: Republican Heather Wilson, who flatly told folks this week that she has "always" opposed Social Security privatization. It took very little time for someone to dig up a Wilson quote from 1998 (when she claimed her seat in the House in a special election against Democrat Phil Maloof) where she supported "innovative approaches that would allow working people to put at least some of their Social Security payments into personalized pension funds." Which, y'know, is totally different than privatization.
THE BATTLE FOR THE U.S. HOUSE
AT THE POLLS: Only a small bit of data this week, and all but one survey is of the campaign internal variety. The most intriguing one might be the one out of Pennsylvania, because it apparently informed a strategic decision by Democrat Mark Critz to skip the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte. Critz's campaign pointed out that the president trailed Mitt Romney by double digits in their polling (which, as you can see below, gave him a ten-point lead over Keith Rothfus, though he is below the 50 percent threshold for incumbent comfort). This, in itself, should not be shocking: this was a 54-45 McCain district when the Republicans drew it up.
Meanwhile, in Michigan, Trevor Thomas is hyping his internal poll not for the topline result, but rather an "informed" trial heat that showed him leading handily. But, as our own David Nir pointed out yesterday, that informed trial heat was the source of no small amount of conflict between the Thomas campaign and that of his Democratic primary opponent (Steven Pestka).
HI-02—D (Merriman River for Civil Beat): Mufi Hannemann 34, Tulsi Gabbard 33, Esther Kiaaina 10, Bob Marx 10
HI-02--D (QMark for Hannemann): Mufi Hannemann 45, Tulsi Gabbard 27, Bob Marx 8, Esther Kiaaina 2
MI-03—D (Mellman Group for Thomas): Steven Pestka 21, Trevor Thomas 16
PA-12 (Global Strategy Group for Critz): Rep. Mark Critz (D) 46, Keith Rothfus (R) 36
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- It looks like we will have a runoff in SC-07, after all, though the Republican-dominated State Board of Elections probably achieved their goal, anyway. For those who missed the first part of the story, the state board declared former Georgia legislator Gloria Tinubu, considered the lesser-funded and weaker general election candidate in the newly-drawn 7th district, the outright winner of the state's Democratic primary there. They did so by simply excluding the votes cast for former frontrunner Ted Vick, who dropped out after falling into legal trouble stemming from a very complicated DUI arrest (Google it). The Democratic Party, rightly, noted that you can't just exclude votes from a candidate legally on the ballot. A judge this week agreed, but for all intents and purposes, the GOP got its way. The runoff is Tuesday, giving Brittain virtually no time to mount a challenge.
- That runoff is not the only race that is on the ballot this week. We also have Congressional primaries in Colorado, Oklahoma, Utah and New York. One of the more intriguing primaries is in NY-18, for the right to take on freshman Republican Nan Hayworth. The two Democratic frontrunners are physician Rich Becker and former Clinton staffer Sean Maloney. Maloney is a recent arrival to the district, and let's just say the welcome wagon has not been forthcoming from his rivals. His fundraising chops have been legit, though, so this one could be close. There are also a bunch of high-profile primaries in the city, with an open seat to replace outgoing NYC Rep. Ed Towns, and incumbents Nydia Velasquez and Charlie Rangel under serious assault. New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo endorsed in that trifecta of races, but in a profile in political courage, he waited until Friday afternoon to do so. There's also a brutally nasty Democratic primary in NY-06, where longtime Rep. Gary Ackerman is heading for the exits. As you would expect, Daily Kos Elections will be all over it on Tuesday night.
- Nearly three weeks after voters headed to the polls, it looks like we are close to putting the California primary to bed. The only congressional race left that looks even mathematically possible to flip would be the second slot in the very blue north coast district of CA-02. Democrat Norman Solomon is holding out hope that he will knock Daniel Roberts out of the general election with the handful of remaining ballots. According to the calculations of our own JeffMd, he is down between 500-600 votes with several thousand votes left to tally (though estimates on the remaining ballot count vary quite a bit). Meanwhile, it looks like state legislator Paul Cook has held onto his second slot in the uber-red CA-08 narrowly, setting up a GOP-on-GOP battle in the district between Cook and Gregg Imus, both of whom got just 15 percent of the vote districtwide (as did a third Republican, free spending Phil Liberatore).
THE BATTLE FOR THE STATE HOUSE
AT THE POLLS: For whatever reason, Washington became the most polled race in America this week, with a trio of polls released out of the Evergreen State this week. And the news was good for Democrats, who had looked for a while as if they would fall victim to a GOP pickup in this reliably blue state. But three new polls confirm that Democrat Jay Inslee has pulled back to even money with Republican Rob McKenna, which actually prompted the crew here at Daily Kos Elections to rebrand this race as a tossup this week (we had previously rated this race as Leans Republican). It could be even better for Inslee than we think—PPP noted that the undecideds in this case were very friendly persuadables for a Democratic candidate.
In the only other state house poll of the week, New Hampshire looks as undefined as it ever has, with three of the four potential gubernatorial matchups in the Granite State at three points or less.
NH-GOV (Rasmussen): Ovide Lamontagne (R) 41, Jackie Cilley (D) 39; Lamontagne 42, Maggie Hassan (D) 36; Cilley 39, Kevin Smith (R) 37; Smith 39, Hassan 36
WA-GOV (Elway Poll): Rob McKenna (R) 42, Jay Inslee (D) 40
WA-GOV (GS Strategy): Jay Inslee (D) 38, Rob McKenna (R) 38
WA-GOV (PPP): Rob McKenna (R) 43, Jay Inslee (D) 40
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- Speaking of the New Hampshire race, we got some insight this week into the money race between the two leading Democratic candidates. Thus far, Maggie Hassan ($700K) has a wide edge over fellow Democrat Jackie Cilley ($175K) The comparison isn't perfect, because it is an accounting of total funding to date, and Hassan got into the race quite a bit earlier than did Cilley, who entered the race four months ago. However, it also speaks to the fact that a gap of over a half-million dollars will be tough to make up before the primary. If Cilley has a saving grace, it is that the primary is super-late: it is scheduled for September 11th.
- We also received new financial figures out of West Virginia, where incumbent Democrat Earl Ray Tomblin faces a rematch of the 2011 special election that put him in office. This time around, incumbency pays: Tomblin has a huge edge over Republican businessman Bill Maloney. Tomblin out raised Maloney three-to-one over the last month ($377K to $133K), and also has a nearly four-to-one edge in cash on hand.
- Let's close the statehouse section with a fun bit of trivia, courtesy of the crew at Smart Politics. What state in the union has gone the longest without having a Republican win a gubernatorial election? The answer: Washington, which last saw a Republican win passage into the governors mansion a whopping 32 years ago. That is the streak Rob McKenna is trying to break this year. Meanwhile, the state that has denied Democrats the governorship the longest? You might want to guess Utah, Idaho, or Wyoming, but you would be very wrong (heck, Wyoming has had a Democratic governor in the past decade...who could forget Governor Dave?). The answer is South Dakota, which last saw a Democrat win a gubernatorial election in 1974. For the record, I was just shy of my second birthday when that dude got sworn in, and Daily Kos Elections head David Nir was not even born yet. In other words, that's a really long freaking time.
THE ELECTIONS DIGEST "AIR BALL" OF THE WEEK AWARD
You can't keep a good Mitt down. After one week off from the nominee's list for the Air Ball, Romney makes a return appearance to the final four. But his victory (and he has a ton of them in the annals of Air Ball history) is far from assured. You've got a candidate trying to silence a widow. You've got a guy in a tossup race saying that employers have the right to deny cancer coverage to their employees, and you have the reappearance of a certain (not-really) plumber. It's a summer picnic of awesomeness in this week's edition of the Air Ball.
Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA): It's one thing to duck a debate (and since Scott Brown seems to do his best work in prescripted ads from the drivers' seat of a pickup truck, such a strategy may be advisable). But to duck a debate, and claim your reason why is because the debate is being sponsored by someone who might endorse the other candidate is pretty rich. It's even more rich when you consider that Brown is all for debates sponsored by...say...the Boston Herald, who was almost more dedicated to flogging that manufactured crisis about Elizabeth Warren's heritage more than Brown himself.
But maybe we are being too rough on Brown. He might have had to renege on the Kennedy Institute debate because he is going to be out of the country in secret meetings with monarchs and such.
Senate candidate Richard Mourdock (R-IN): I know that, professionally, he goes by his full given name of Richard Mourdock. But given his support for employers being able to deny employees health coverage for cancer (on the absurd free-market-y grounds that, in this economy, people will bail on a job if the working conditions aren't super-awesome for them, because, as we all know, NOBODY in America works in a job where they're unhappy because there are no better alternatives), perhaps it is better just to call him Dick. But if that story doesn't do it for you, Mourdock also had a more garden-variety campaign gaffe, when he pre-produced very sincere responses to the Obama healthcare Supreme Court decision. Several of them, in fact, one for every potential outcome. It's one thing to do that. Perfectly normal, and every campaign preps for all eventualities. Another to post them in advance of the decision. Whoopsie!
Mitt Romney (R-MA): Of all my favorite Mitt-icisms this week, I am particularly fond of the story that broke late in the week, where Mitt is trying to get Republican governors to ... ahem ... ixnay on the appyhay alktay about the economy. Of course, he doesn't need to put pressure on the governors to shut up about job creation. He could already take the exceptionally dishonest route he has taken about the rescue of the auto industry: "yeah, it happened. But...but...I would've done it, too! And quicker! And better!"
Congressional candidate Samuel Wurzelbacher (R-OH): You might know him better as Joe The Plumber. Christ, has any irrelevant political figure in the last half-century managed to stretch out his Warhol-guaranteed 15 minutes of fame more than this cat? For funsies, let's set an over-under on the percentage of the vote he'll get against Mary Kaptur in the very blue Ohio 9th district. Thirty percent? I look forward to Mitt Romney, who must have Ohio to get elected, walking arm-in-arm with the Wurzelbacher on campaign swings through Northwest Ohio.