Romney won and President Obama didn't perform to our expectations. My take on the fallout from last night.
I haven't written one of these in a long time but today's a special occasion. See, my President didn't do too well last night in his first debate in years and will pay for it by losing a news cycle of two. And that's about it. Romney can parlay a debate victory into one or two days of good news (maybe a few more) before the media gets bored. In the meantime the "winner" will get fact checked like crazy and we're already seeing the initial rounds and its not pretty for Romney (see this diary on NPR by Voter123 and this diary on the front page).
What I do want to say is something about what I've read on the site recently and how I haven't approached either the debates or the election as many of you guys here have approached things. I've read about how Romney has been eviscerated, lacerated, put out to pasture, taken to the woodshed, etc. and so I was surprised how someone who has been so decimated could win a debate against my President. The answer is simply that Romney has not been any of those things, either literally of figuratively and by recommending and tipping such diaries to the Rec List we set ourselves up for some major downers (I'm guilty of this as well because what Kossack doesn't like hearing about Romney being destroyed and pulverized. Sure he's taken plenty of hits, some fatal to his election chances even now, but this race was not going to be the blowout I wished for. How could it when Romney starts with 20% of the country in his pocket because those are the crazies who think humans and dinosaurs lived together in harmony just a few years back. He'll get another few percents from people who think the Republican party is still the one they joined years ago, even though it is far from Reagan's GOP.
So, Romney's going to get his. That doesn't mean I don't think a landslide is coming... it is. Or that we won't win back the House or keep the Senste... we will. It does mean that I think the presidential race will remain static and we will barely see any movement in the polls because debates may result in some chatter and provide a break from the usual voter registration / GOTV / fundraising / barnstorming routine but that's all there is. Had President Obama won last night, I probably would be a bit more happy but the conclusion would be the same... the debate isn't going to move anyone a millimeter if they've already made their choice and judging by the number of undecideds left in the race, too many people have made up their minds already.
A couple of comments on missed opportunities last night. President Obama didn't say anything about abortion or womens' rights or immigration. Well, those topics are misplaced in a debate billed as being about the economy. How about the 47% or Romney's tax havens or Bain or... something, arghhhh. My take: why hit Romney with the 47% stuff when it's already out there and everyone knows about it? Why give Romney the chance to respond to his 47% gaffe in front of a large tv audience when Romney must otherwise spend campaign money rebutting that gaffe in ads all over the country (well at least in the swing states). The ads he's put out there already don't seem to be having any effect in softening his image, because you can't soften a boulder. Same goes for so many other attacks that could have been: offshore accounts, outsourcing, his taxes, etc. Why give Romney an opportunity to spill his drivel and lie (even more) about these issues and have the punditocracy declare that Romney has finally answered his critics and that all those issues are now off the table. You know that this is what CNN, Fox News, ABC, NBC, CBS... most of the media outlets would have said. I know it with every fiber of my being. Those topics have been festering in the public consciousness for months and I see no reason why they shouldn't continue to dog people all the way into the polling booth.
Romney won the debate and this is the taste that everyone has in their mouths this morning. No need to sugarcoat it. Even if the fact checkers find all sorts of holes in Romney's statements -- and they will -- the impression people got last night was that Romney won. What will their impression be next week. With a week's worth of ads and campaigning, the memory of this debate will fade just as the memory of Obama's first debate with McCain faded from view. So Romney won. Fine, but what really results from that? Did President Obama suddenly change any of our policies last night? Nope. Are Democrats suddenly less trusted on any of the issues aside from the debt (which is already hilarious but I'll let the Goopers have that one). Nope. Is Obama suddenly supportive of destroying Social Security and Medicare or less supportive of womens' rights? Nope. As far as Romney is concerned, he's lied and twisted for months without the media calling him on it and I see no change in this. Sure, there will be some anomalies of half-truths or stretched facts but that's as far as this thing will go. He'll trudge along and in a few days the Romney campaign will be scratching its collective head wondering why the polls have not moved for Romney and how this latest round of "introducing the candidate" still didn't work. "What do we have to do to here to get peoples' attentions... skin a cat?"
I predict a momentary blip in the polls, if Romney is lucky. National polls will tighten and people on this site, who thought Romney had been eviscerated but is now resurrected, may start gripping. But in the end the battleground polls will shift very little and no new states will be in play before the second debate. That's the real opportunity that we lost last night - to put Missouri, Montana, Arizona, South Carolina, Indiana, and Georgia in play on our side. We've still got two more debates to do that but we'll be okay even without those states becoming more competitive (although it would be nice to get some help for our Senate candidates in Missouri, Montana, Arizona, and Indiana).
So lick your wounds if you need to. Get all the frustration and disappointment with Obama out of your system - I hear phone banking and canvassing works wonders for that kind of thing. Embrace the perception that Obama lost debate #1 because there's no denying that he wasn't at his best. Sure there are explanations for that (Libya, Syria, jobs report, etc.) but those are explanations at best and excuses at worse. Don't use them. If Romney didn't lose the election after his 47% comment then Obama didn't lose the election after a lackluster performance in the first debate. You tell me which one (47% or debate 1) is the thing that will stick with you in the voting booth. Anyways that's my rant and writing this down really helped me get over my disappointment from last night (well, sleeping it off helped too). Hopefully this diary will help a few other people with the same hangover. Everyone and their Republican mother was writing one so why not add my take on things.
Predictions:
1 - slight national polls tightening
2 - no battleground polls tightening
3 - a few Romney news cycles, at best
4 - a slew of Obama ads showing pre-debate Romney vs post-debate Romney
5 - another Romney gaffe coming very soon to take the small fart of wind in his sails from last night's debate and push him backwards again