Know your enemy.
With 2 weeks left in the election, it's down to the home stretch. In this diary, I just want to jot down in as complete a form as possible, the scenarios in which Romney can win.
Look forward to hearing everyone's comments and suggestions going forward. Now onto the numbers!
First, I'm making some simplifying assumptions:
- None of the 2012 base states for either candidate will switch. I am including IN and NE's 2nd District for Romney this time around. Unless something drastic happens, I doubt MI or PA will seriously be at play; conversely MO and AZ are in the hopeful but not expected category
- Romney needs 269 to win, Obama needs 270, based on the current lead of 29-15 in state Congressional delegations for the Republicans.
- The 9 swing states at play: FL, OH, NC, VA, WI, CO, IA, NV, NH
Second, I estimate the base totals as 231 for Obama, and 191 for Romney.
Obama's base states: HI, WA, OR, CA, NM, MN, IL, MI, PA, NY, MD, DE, DC, NJ, CT, MA, RI, VT, ME
Romney's base states: AK, ID, MT, WY, UT, AZ, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, MO, AR, LA, IN, KY, TN, MS, AL, GA, SC, WV
Scenario 1: Mathematical Must-Wins
Romney must win 2 out of the 3: FL, OH, NC. The reason is any 2 + the 231 Obama has leads to 270.
Scenario 2: Extreme Long Shots
Any of these scenarios will be extremely difficult, but not impossible.
#1: Romney loses FL. Contrary to what I first thought, it turns out he can still win, but only if he wins all 8 other swing states.
#2: Romney loses OH and VA. In this scenario he must win all 7 other swing states.
#3: Romney loses NC and VA. He must win all 6 of the non-NH swing states to get to 269.
Scenario 3: Uphill Battles
These scenarios are more difficult for Romney to win than Obama to stop, but they have become disturbingly possible.
#1: Romney loses OH. Assuming Romney wins VA, in addition to winning FL and NC, he must prevent the following:
- Obama winning WI + any swing state besides NH, or any 2 swing states
- Obama winning CO + NV or IA if Romney wins WI
- Obama winning NV, IA, and NH if Romney wins CO
#2: Romney loses NC. He must prevent the following:
- Obama winning VA + any swing state except NH, or any 2 swing states
- Obama winning WI + any 2 swing states, if Romney wins VA
- Obama winning any 3 of CO, NV, IA, and NH if Romney wins WI
Romney gets to 269 if he wins VA and CO
Scenario 4: Even Money
Romney does not win VA, but wins FL, OH and NC. He would need to win 3 of the 5 swing states (WI, CO, NV, IA, NH). In this scenario, Romney has IMO a 50-50 shot of winning; it's very likely this will also lead to a split between the Electoral College totals and the popular vote.
Scenario 5: Romney Triumphant
Romney wins FL, OH, NC, VA. In this event, he only needs 1 of the 5 other swing states to win; a swing state besides NH if he wants 270+. Romney will be the odds-on favorite here.
It's clear that there are two tiers of swing states: tier one are the Big 4 - FL, OH, NC, and VA. As I said above, Romney must win 2 out of FL, OH and NC to win. VA is important because it closes the deal in many scenarios.
Out of the next tier, WI and CO are the most important, obviously because they have 10 and 9 EVs respectively.
If I'm Romney, the first priority is locking down FL and NC. NC may or may not be trending safe, but if I were Romney I would spare as much effort for FL as possible. Next of course is Ohio, it's 1A to Florida's 1. Virginia is the last piece of the puzzle.
After that, it seems he has to devote time for WI and CO. To my knowledge these states have been undervisited in the campaign, but I'm guessing this changes next week. There are scenarios where Romney can win without OH, or even NC, but time is running out for him to shore up the swing states outside of the Big 4.
Knowing the parameters in which Romney must close out his campaign, for us Ohio and Virginia are the top priorities. The two pairs of Nevada & Colorado along with Wisconsin & Iowa are important, we will need one of each to cement victory.
Finally, in 2008 once PA was a clear hold for Obama and OH called for blue, I think we all knew Obama had it won regardless of the network delays (remember Olberman doing everything possible to say this without saying it, lol). I suspect it's the same this year, but we will still need to nail down some of the smaller swing states first.
Thanks for reading, and GOTV!