Yes, I know Gravis is a GOP-shill pollster. No, I don't think they throw darts on a wall and make up their numbers out if thin air, given how easy it is these days to set up a robo call server. They probably DO make these robo calls, but they are massaging their poll results towards the GOP nominee, no doubt. As a robo call they have no way of calling cell phone households, which obviously tilts any result into the GOP candidate's favor, in this case likely intentionally so.
So, with all these caveats, I give you this morning's Gravis Ohio poll:
http://www.gravispolls.com/...
Friday, October 26, 2012
President Obama currently leads Governor Romney by 4 percentage points in Iowa, 50 to 46 percent.
Governor Romney leads President Obama with independent voters by a margin of 48 to 36 percent. Both candidates received more than 90 percent support from members of their own party.
There is a wide gender gap in this survey. Romney leads by 18 percent among men while President Obama leads by 23 percent with women.
Gravis Marketing conducted an automated survey of 517 likely voters in Iowa October 24, 2012. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.3% and higher for subgroups.
This is instrumental in a few ways.
1. Gravis, as the GOP shill pollster, is likely a few points below reality here. So, Iowa is probably closer to 6%, 7% for Obama, if you apply realistic demographics to the same poll.
2. RCP, the favorite poll aggregate site, always includes Gravis. This will move the needle towards Obama in Iowa, shooting a hole in the narrative of Mittmentum.
So, even though Gravis is a GOP shill, today's poll result served a purpose when it comes to the narrative that when it comes to state polling (by far more important than national polls) Romney's momemtum has stalled and in fact has receded.
I take that.