Skip to main content

Like always, far ahead of the Washington pundits.
It appears Chuck Todd and his crew of insiders have taken note of this fact:
Is the independent vote overrated? In our latest installment looking at the exit polls from last week's presidential election, here's something you might not have known: Romney actually won the independent vote, 50%-45%. So now twice in the last three elections -- in 2004 and 2012 -- the winner has lost the indie vote. What does this mean? Well, party ID appears to matter much more: In 2004, it was even; in 2008, it was D+7; and last week, it was D+6. Also, many polls have different ways of deciding who is an “independent”; some pollsters include “lean Dems and lean GOPers” in their independent number which lately has given the indie number a GOP skew. If you move the leaners into their own parties, then you get a more pure indie subgroup (and you also realize how really small of a subgroup it is).
Might not have known? No Chuck. You didn't know. At Daily Kos, we knew.

The day before the election Mark Halperin couldn't understand how President Obama could possibly be ahead in so many swing states while losing the independent vote. We were told by the pundit class that 2010 "independents turned against Obama." One could cite pundit after pundit who believed in the supremacy of independents. More Halperin on Morning Joe, in a quote blasted all over Breitbart and Drudge:


Even in the Michigan Q poll that shows the President leading substantially, he's losing independents. That is the strongest argument the Romney campaign will make against all these polls that show the president up. Which is, you may be oversampling Democrats in some of these polls. If Romney's winning independents in Ohio they think he's gonna win.
Wrong. More Democratic leaning independents are proud to call themselves Democrats under the leadership of President Obama. Republicans want to be independent because the Republican brand ranks slightly below gangrene in favorability. In 2010, their independents turned out and ours didn't. This year, more of ours preferred to be called Democrat. No oversampling, just pride.

Nate Silver began his work here at Daily Kos. So did Sam Wang. Our analysts, from Greg Dworkin to Steve Singiser to Jed Lewison and David Nir provide some of the best political analysis in the business. Our polling is at the very top of accuracy. The number crunching of folks like dreaminonempty and MattTX provide some of the most thorough in depth electoral analysis you can find. And our guy called the election dead on. You never once heard any of that ridiculous "it's a toss up" garbage coming from these pages. Time after time after time, we prove ourselves concise, accurate, truthful and prescient. On issue after issue, election after election, our reality has a consistent bias towards being the truth.

It might come as a shock to "very serious people" that I ask why it is the media pundits get so much exposure despite being consistently wrong (or far behind) about everything. Obviously, because we are just Cheeto-eating basement dwellers, we don't deserve the spotlight. While we cannot expect to get anything close to the exposure of a Mark Halperin or a Dick Morris, our being consistently correct should count for at least a measure of respect.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

kos, Meteor Blades, Andrew Lazarus, Sharoney, sdf, a gilas girl, Greg Dworkin, Renee, Thumb, JekyllnHyde, Alumbrados, paradox, Ed in Montana, Angie in WA State, Sylv, chuck utzman, djn, TXdem, dwellscho, jec, Ducktape, LeislerNYC, Chance the gardener, Joe Willy, Bill in Portland Maine, Chi, oofer, Upper West, Radiowalla, jennifer poole, hester, murphy, copymark, dalemac, teacherken, slinkerwink, Sparhawk, Trendar, glitterscale, Danno11, madmsf, emal, PeterHug, wytcld, bosdcla14, Emerson, karlpk, byteb, LynChi, SanJoseLady, OLinda, Vico, waytac, oysterface, eeff, Pompatus, Rachael7, devtob, recentdemocrat, Bryce in Seattle, FyodorFish, Joe B, MarkInSanFran, hubcap, zeitshabba, niemann, Creosote, Doctor Who, dweb8231, eyeswideopen, cinnamon68, opinionated, concernedamerican, missLotus, susans, TracieLynn, jfeichter, cyberKosFan, SamSinister, nyceve, susakinovember, djMikulec, ellefarr, ask, Time Waits for no Woman, macleme, CoolOnion, biscobosco, highacidity, boadicea, themank, chuckvw, mkfarkus, JJG Miami Shores, farmerhunt, chechecule, Frederick Clarkson, Dhavo, dgb, ivote2004, Ignacio Magaloni, retLT, jennifree2bme, poe, jalbert, mollyd, wonmug, splashy, antirove, Alna Dem, CocoaLove, Yil, Quege, Lilyvt, Texknight, PresentMoment, RLF, tcorse, Getreal1246, psnyder, Nag, annan, nancelot, sockpuppet, TexDem, AZGoob, Farugia, figbash, pat bunny, Chicago Lulu, Eyesbright, jaywillie, kj in missouri, Daniel Donner, JimWilson, laughingriver, Jujuree, DSC on the Plateau, dwahzon, Chirons apprentice, lizah, Sychotic1, defluxion10, Frankenoid, lcrp, riverlover, 313to212, faithnomore, Wayward Wind, Brian82, Lilith, outragedinSF, bwintx, Diana in NoVa, econlibVA, peterj911, zerelda, Sembtex, Curt Matlock, mungley, randallt, Hillbilly Dem, Wife of Bath, Dr Seuss, xyz, Emmy, solesse413, boran2, bibble, sebastianguy99, Blueiz, Armand451, Frank Vyan Walton, My Philosophy, oortdust, sawgrass727, Gowrie Gal, weelzup, Julie Gulden, nailbender, vcmvo2, Skennet Boch, A Citizen, Los Diablo, maybeeso in michigan, historys mysteries, Bluesee, sandblaster, 3goldens, tinfoilhat, Jeffersonian Democrat, Ckntfld, yuriwho, Freakinout daily, SherwoodB, Chinton, democracy inaction, wallys son, kitchen sink think tank, ccasas, elkhunter, basquebob, CinDan, stagemom, Brooke In Seattle, YucatanMan, EJP in Maine, Laurence Lewis, reflectionsv37, fixxit, eru, owlbear1, bleeding blue, majcmb1, Dem Beans, JoieDe, where4art, aaraujo, Kayakbiker, quaoar, Ice Blue, most peculiar mama, BayAreaKen, Carnivorous Plantling, onanyes, Tool, ScottAC, Steve Singiser, JavaManny, FindingMyVoice, bunsk, daddybunny, peacestpete, JanL, Ekaterin, SocioSam, mightymouse, Blue Bronc, Land of Enchantment, noweasels, xaxnar, reddbierd, RoseRash, Doug Goodenough, Paul Ferguson, hlee1169, gwilson, lonemorriscodem, BalanceSeeker, tarheelblue, tommymet, Patriot Daily News Clearinghouse, Keone Michaels, keeplaughing, cybersaur, edwardssl, hungrycoyote, SciFiGuy, profundo, dopper0189, tonyahky, liberalconservative, seefleur, Dvalkure, martyc35, kestrel9000, smokeymonkey, redstatedemocrat, InsultComicDog, AoT, dougymi, arlene, ktar7582, fou, kck, Lefty Coaster, blueoasis, Alexandra Lynch, bren, NBBooks, MJ via Chicago, StrayCat, twigg, gpoutney, iburl, agnostic, Libby Shaw, Crashing Vor, paul2port, real world chick, el cid, Zwoof, sceptical observer, myrealname, ER Doc, Unitary Moonbat, doinaheckuvanutjob, middleagedhousewife, reachjeff, justiceputnam, anninla, BlueMississippi, thenekkidtruth, CA Nana, profh, chicating, Clive all hat no horse Rodeo, BB10, Texdude50, Stripe, blueoregon, kurt, Ian Reifowitz, shaharazade, Statusquomustgo, Bernie68, blueintheface, Quicklund, bmcphail, Aaa T Tudeattack, DBunn, Thinking Fella, Tamar, Sapere aude, pgm 01, FoundingFatherDAR, fabucat, Cronesense, rchipevans, Haningchadus14, Loudoun County Dem, jhecht, camlbacker, SharonColeman, moodyinsavannah, gloriana, EdSF, Van Buren, edsbrooklyn, FishOutofWater, DvCM, CTDemoFarmer, Nespolo, Via Chicago, ezdidit, Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle, certainot, suejazz, joedemocrat, newpioneer, bnasley, Seneca Doane, artisan, Kentucky Kid, HCKAD, bluehen96, Midwesterners, letsgetreal, cyncynical, tcdup, Killer of Sacred Cows, jnhobbs, Bridge Master, jhop7, Wreck Smurfy, christianlsv, uciguy30, GeorgeXVIII, journeyman, leonard145b, Puffin, A Person, cloudbustingkid, vet, wuod kwatch, TomP, gizmo59, JDWolverton, MKinTN, thankgodforairamerica, rogerdaddy, bkamr, gundyj, mconvente, TruthFreedomKindness, misterwade, ruthhmiller, TX Freethinker, ratador, ChocolateChris, califdem, MikePhoenix, Sixty Something, Youffraita, Senor Unoball, Foundmyvoice, crescentdave, Involuntary Exile, elwior, Cat Servant, filby, KJG52, VL Baker, jamess, mikeconwell, monkeybrainpolitics, Calamity Jean, tofumagoo, RandomNonviolence, hwmnbn, smartdemmg, icebergslim, Jake Williams, Jeff Y, mofembot, No Exit, noddem, petulans, TexanJane, mattc129, emidesu, Karl Rover, red 83, Al Fondy, Bongobanger, suesue, JamieG from Md, Robobagpiper, ekyprogressive, toom, greenpunx, shortgirl, SolarMom, tuckerm, squarewheel, fayea, legendmn, clent, bluebelle7, MrsTarquinBiscuitbarrel, maggiejean, BerkshireDem, Bule Betawi, multilee, pileta, Rhysling, McGahee220, rubyclaire, J M F, Glacial Erratic, txvoodoo, divineorder, juca, ewmorr, zephyr108, Mislead, LeftOfYou, Sarge in Seattle, janmtairy, Ohiodem1, Tara the Antisocial Social Worker, WakeUpNeo, I give in to sin, shopkeeper, CamillesDad1, Fixed Point Theorem, prgsvmama26, elziax, TheOpinionGuy, MySobriquet, kevinpdx, Shelley99, stevenwag, sfarkash, vadasz, mahakali overdrive, futureliveshere, citisven, Leftcandid, Larsstephens, Words In Action, DemFromPit, ruscle, Clyde the Cat, Railfan, dtruth, Just Bob, bronxcharlie, hotdamn, commonmass, brooklyns finest, coppercelt, confitesprit, KroneckerD, just like that, p gorden lippy, TFinSF, sbbonerad, Captain Marty, barkworsethanbite, breathe67, brunoboy, gramofsam1, Susan Grigsby, David Harris Gershon, piers, fidellio, Anima, Luma, Crabby Abbey, BenderRodriguez, legalchic, 2questions, RJP9999, renzo capetti, Eddie L, gulfgal98, samanthab, loveistheanswer, pixxer, ItsSimpleSimon, Puddytat, naka, ThirtyFiveUp, SoonerG, MJinSM, rja, nirbama, Betty Pinson, kenwards, ericlewis0, Oh Mary Oh, slice, Eric0125, no way lack of brain, physci, Onomastic, annieli, kerflooey, Acktiv, Liberal Capitalist, vinny67, JFactor, slowbutsure, Wolf Of Aquarius, StellaRay, Cintimcmomma, La Gitane, BlueJessamine, ardyess, AtomikNY, UtahLibrul, lexalou, imokyrok, lillyspad, KelleyRN2, page394, nezzclay, Alice Olson, Word Alchemy, RyanHarvey, miscanthus, Jed Lewison, cama2008, Chicago Lawyer, mr kranky, mrsgoo, Haf2Read, Cinnamon Rollover, IllanoyGal, thomask, DruidQueen, slooterdam, muddy boots, smoothnmellow, Tommy Aces, KVoimakas, dakinishir, LSmith, Grandma Susie, marianevans, Empty Vessel, Gay In Maine, peregrine kate, n8rboy, Liberal Mole, VTCC73, Caddis Fly, StateOfGrace, chuck412, MKDAWUSS, Marihilda, Deathtongue, jolux, Miggles, SteelerGrrl, VeloVixen, Catlady62, blackjackal, RLMiller, Regina in a Sears Kit House, Mentatmark, Kurt from CMH, Apost8, caryltoo, Lucy2009, RhodyRed, allergywoman, PrometheusUnbound, Madrig, Rejoinder, left over flower child, BlueDragon, wolf advocate, quill, jacey, ridemybike, HamptonRoadsProgressive, CuriousBoston, Heart n Mind, anodnhajo, isabelle hayes, DeadHead, StonyB, Siri, IndieGuy, Eric Nelson, nellgwen, surelyujest, pimutant, Amateur Nerd, 2thanks, Trotskyrepublican, congenitalefty, CA ridebalanced, Horace Boothroyd III, deweyrose, edebs, mapamp, HypocrisyWatch, pot, Fish in Illinois, AspenFern, radical simplicity, Arahahex, burnt out, pittie70, doroma, wxorknot, avsp, jeannew, Glen The Plumber, T C Gibian, George3, Marjmar, deconite, Candide08, Lily O Lady, Chaddiwicker, DamselleFly, Panacea Paola, Dancun74, kleinburger, remembrance, poopdogcomedy, LiberalSage, broths, weck, Dewstino, silentlurker, GwenM, Aunt Pat, AguaEcon, JosephK74, rosarugosa, akze29, eric611, LaraJones, Smoh, nice marmot, IndyinDelaware, rigcath, Rooe, marcr22, MBishop1, workingclasszero, Jason Hackman, ChristineM, martianexpatriate, cthon1c, sparkysgal, pianogramma, Orangetime, thatpj, longtimelurker, Replace cant with Kant, Chicagogator

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site