Since the world didn't end last week, it's time to cook up a new bunch of predictions to baffle the seriously confused with. Where will Elvis be seen next? Who will make it to the National Enquirer's 6-weeks-to-live list with their shocking emaciated photo on the front page? Which congresscritters will stumble into the wrong bedroom with the TV cameras rolling? Will there be more Mormons arrested for DUI?
These are all interesting questions, and when they happen, they will titillate the news media, who will in turn titillate the legions who are even less inquisitive than they are.
But this diary is more along the lines of what weather to expect for 2013. How is climate change going to express itself, even given all the scientific disclaimers that "you can't really tie this event to climate change, you can only say that the probabilities have changed..." Yeah, yeah, yeah, I know. Skip over the cloud of orange greenhouse gas for bold predictions.
Prediction #1 The North Pole will be ice-free in September.
If you look at the 2012 summer minimum , you will see that open water is very close to the little '+' indicating where the North Pole is. Seeing as the thick multi-year ice has been steadily eroding away for decades, and is mostly shoved against the islands of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, there won't be enough ice at the pole to withstand yet another, warmer summer. You won't need a submarine, like in 'Ice Station Zebra' to break through at the North Pole, a ship steaming through open water will be able to get there.
Prediction #2 The annual May peak in atmospheric CO2 will exceed 400 ppm.
You can find the data here. The increase of 2012 over 2011 was 2.45 ppm, what makes me think that a 3.21 increase of 2013 over 2012 is possible? That's not the right question. The right question is "how did 400 ppm even being in the range of probabilities ever happen?"
As the world recklessly leaves 350 in the dust, and as 350.org seems like a more quixotic struggle, 400 is going to become the new 350. Many climate scientists are pointing out that projections and models, as dire as the predictions are, are lagging the actual field observation data of climate change. So an acceleration past 400 ppm, although less that a 50-50 change in 2013, will definitely occur by 2016. And it will probably be discussed by the Presidential candidates just as much as it was discussed in 2012.
Prediction #3 There will be massive flooding in the Midwest, equal to the "100 year flood".
Or there will be a drought, making it dryer than the 80-year drought we had in 2012. It all depends on where the Rossby waves get stuck, now that the jet stream is too weak to move the weather systems around the planet in a reliable fashion. If you don't know what a Rossby wave is, then you should attend this lecture. One thing that has low probability is moderate temperatures with average precipitation. You know, the conditions that make for good crop yields.
Prediction #4 There will be a record potato harvest in Greenland.
Not going out on much of a limb here. Climate change has made agriculture in Greenland
possible. They are going to be beating their seal harpoons into plowshares.
Prediction #5 Preparation and adaptation to the new climate will be underfunded.
Things that will be needed to adapt, such as new water catchments to deal with the unpredictability of precipitation will be seen as too expensive and unnecessary. Planting projects that could establish forests that cool the land surface will lay in the inbox at the Department of the Interior and the Bureau of Land Management. Biochar will continue to be studied at universities, but a government program to use it as a way to sequester major amounts of carbon will die in committee.
There will be some adaptation, as long as corporations can make a buck at it. Shell will adapt by yet again trying to drill for oil in the Arctic Ocean.
Prediction #6 The people that won't make a buck on climate change will be the climate refugees.
Venice, Tuvalu, Bangkok, these are all places to visit before the waves wash over and destroy what there is to see. Might also want to put the Palm Islands in Dubai on that list, as the oil that made their construction possible is also going to make their inundation a reality.