I am not a scientist. But I can read scientific literature. And I can read what the most frightened among us have to say about "what we don't know" and "how this is spread more easily than THEY say" and how "Ebola is going airborne."
And, so I was frightened, terrified. Then I looked at the one case which has spread so much fear across the home of the brave, and then I realized that THEY weren't hiding something. And I am no longer panic-stricken. While I am, of course, concerned, I am no longer afraid. Why? Because I don't have to trust THEM. I can trust my own real time observations. Follow me below the GREAT ORANGE SQUIGGLY!
The case of Thomas Eric Duncan has the nation roiled in ebola-panic. But, it did just the opposite for me.
Claim 1: Yes, you can get ebola when an ebola victim is asymptomatic.
Observation: When Thomas Eric Duncan was asymptomatic he boarded a flight to the US with 132 other people. No one on the flight got Ebola. If he were infectious why not? Planes are great places to catch germs, by the way.
Claim 2: you can easily get ebola when a person is in the early stages of ebola.
Observation: Duncan came into contact with 48 people after arriving in the US, including many peope he was in close quarters with during the early stages of the disease. None of them got ebola.
Claim 3: Ebola is easier to get than THEY say.
See observations above.
Claim 4: ebola is going airborne.
Observation: Duncan traveled on a plane. Zero transmissions. Duncan freely roamed Dallas. Zero transmissions. Duncan was in close quarters with his family until he was finally admitted to the hospital. Zero transmissions.
Think of airborne pathogens like the common cold or the flu. I'll use zero again. There is zero chance that a person carrying an airborne pathogen would have infected no one else during this time.
Thomas Duncan transmitted Ebola to two nurses who cared for him in the late stages of the disease without proper Personal Protective Equipment. While this is tragic, this played out exactly as medical experts suggested it would under such conditions.
I know. One case is not scientific proof. But it is enough for me to leave the panic stricken category.
But lets look at two more cases.
Nina Pham. Nina Pham was hospitalized by October 11th. She contracted the disease no later than October 8th (Duncan's death). This means she has carried the virus for at least 19 days. None of her contacts have gotten sick. She was hospitalized and isolated on October 11th, meaning it has been 16 days since the last contact she had with the public. We are four days past the mean for symtoms to demonsrate. The odds of any of her contacts getting EVD decreases dramatically from here on out. Zero of her contacts have come down with ebola.
Amber Vinson. Amber Vinson has been on the end of a lot of public vitriol because she flew when she was asymptomatic and had clearance from the CDC. But 13 days after her hospitalization none of her contacts have gotten sick. 12 days is the mean number of days between contact with ebola victims bodily fluids and demonstration of symptoms. We are not out of the woods here, but the light is at the end of the tunnel.
I don't need to believe THEM. I can believe my own observations. I am done with the panic until further notice.