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these numbers from a newly released Elon Poll of North Carolina:
* Among likely voters, it’s close: Hagan, 44.7 percent – Tillis, 40.7 percent.
* Among registered voters, it’s wider: Hagan, 44.8 percent — Tillis, 37.5 percent.
* Among all residents, it’s wider still: Hagan, 43.5 percent; Tillis, 35.5 percent.
Among likely voters, like all other recent polling of the Tarheel State, everything is pretty tight.
Expand out to all registered voters, and you see that Democrats are over three points better. Again, that's something seen in pretty much all polling around the country—if our registered voters all turn out, we're in much better shape.
But we rarely get to see numbers from all adults, including those that aren't registered. And the results of this poll—a huge eight-point lead—should be no surprise.
In short, if everyone voted, incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan would be safe in this highly polarized, highly competitive state, and the numbers would look similar in virtually every tight race around the country. Heck, some non-tight races (like TX-Gov) would look much different with universal voter participation.
Fact is, we are the majority party, but that's no consolation when our core constituencies are the least likely to vote.
So rather than spend hundreds of millions in bullshit ads chasing the apathetic tiny fringe, why not spend it registering and activating our core constituencies? I'm talking a quarter billion dollar project to identify, register, and turn out our voters over the next several years.
And for those who think the money doesn't exist, of course it does. The Center for Responsive Politics estimates that $3.7 billion has already been spent this cycle, and Democrats are probably a little less than half of that. So as Democrats close in on $2 billion spent, you mean to tell me that they and their allies can't scrounge up $250 million to make their lives a whole fucking easier come election time? Of course they could, if the will was there.
The DSCC's $60 million investment on field this cycle was a great start. But it can't just be a single-party committee, it has to be a movement-wide project. And if successful? Forget the Republicans, they'd be irrelevant, pissing away their money on ads that no one watches or pays attention to anymore.
Sign up right now to make GOTV calls to Democratic voters in the toss-up states that will decide control of the Senate.
I'm sorry, I can't make phone calls, but I will chip in $3 to Daily Kos to help fuel Get Out The Vote efforts.
Too late to register people, but not too late to help get those "unlikely voters" to the polls.