Tally so far:
GOP picks up AR-Sen, CO-Sen, MT-Gov, SD-Sen, WV-Sen
DEM picks up PA-Gov, holds NH-Sen, MI-Sen
6:45 PM PT (David Nir): Bummer: Daily Kos endorsee Nina Turner has conceded the Ohio secretary of state's race to Republican incumbent Jon Husted.
6:47 PM PT (David Nir): 40% in for NY-11 and indicted GOP Rep. Mike Grimm up 11. His trial on tax evasion and fraud is scheduled for December, yet he's still very likely to win tonight.
6:50 PM PT (David Nir): No surprise: The AP is calling a runoff in LA-Sen. That happened once before in 2002, and Democrat Mary Landrieu pulled off a miracle victory that year. Can she do so again? Looking a lot harder this time.
6:51 PM PT (David Nir): NJ-03 has been called for Republican Tom MacArthur. It was a swingy open seat that Democrats initially had high hopes for, but it's typically elected Republicans and polls showed the GOP likely to hold it, so not a surprise.
6:52 PM PT (David Nir): The AP has finally called MN-Sen for Al Franken. At least he won't have to wait the better part of a year before getting seated this time.
6:54 PM PT (David Nir): Early in the cycle, the blue-leaning CO-06 was ID'd as a key Dem pickup opportunity. The party landed a top recruit in Andrew Romanoff, but it didn't work out, despite huge sums spent on both sides:
6:56 PM PT (David Nir): Keep your fingers crossed in Virginia:
It's a 6K-vote race in #vasen. Still 40% of Fairfax left to count. Warner leads Fairfax 58-40—at that rate he could net 20K more votes there
— @baseballot
7:00 PM PT (David Nir): An important legislative hold for Team Blue:
@TheDLCC is proud to announce @KYHouseDems hold on to state House! Congrats! #kyga14
— @TheDLCC
This means that even if Democrats lose KY-Gov next year, Republicans still can't change the law to allow Rand Paul to run both for president and for re-election at the same time in 2016.
7:02 PM PT (David Nir): An unsurprising Dem loss in the House: Veteran Rep. Nick Rahall, who represented WV-03 for decades, has lost to party-switcher Evan Jenkins. Rahall simply couldn't stay ahead of the red tide that's been sweeping West Virginia.
7:04 PM PT (David Nir): Another Dem loss in the House is in FL-26, where GOPer Carlos Curbelo defeats freshman Rep. Joe Garcia, who had faced ethical fallout after a top staffer masterminded a failed voting fraud scheme last cycle. At least Democrats will have a good chance to take this seat back in 2016, unlike WV-03, which is gone forever.
7:05 PM PT (David Nir): Polls are now closed in Iowa, and the first wave of exit polls look quite bad for Democrats. Crazy-ass Republican Joni Ernst leads by around 51-46, though note that early exit polls can and do often change.
7:08 PM PT (David Nir): One more GOP Senate pickup, and it had been expected for a very long time: Freshman Rep. Steve Daines wins in Montana.
7:12 PM PT (Barbara Morrill): New thread here.