Anyone who wants to be elected president in 2016 had better support the new executive actions President Obama took on immigration if they want to have a shot with Latino voters. That was the message of the latest
Latino Decisions poll exploring how Obama's initiative would affect the 2016 landscape.
Take Hillary Clinton, for example. The poll found that 85 percent of Latino voters said they were likely to vote for Clinton if she committed to renewing Obama's executive actions on immigration in 2017, including extending legal work permits to undocumented immigrants who have U.S. citizen children. If Clinton fails to support renewing the actions, however, her support among Latino voters drops almost 50 points, with only 37 percent saying the would likely vote for her.
Latino Decisions pollster Matt Barreto called the drop a "dramatic shift" on a phone call with reporters and noted that it transcends party lines. Of the 85 percent who said they would likely vote for Clinton if she renewed the measures, 73 percent were independent voters. Even a majority of Republican voters—56 percent—said Clinton's support for executive action was likely to get their vote.
Obama's executive actions on immigration have broad Latino support overall. Latino Decisions released a poll last week showing that fully 89 percent of Latino voters back the measures.
Naturally, the findings put equally as much pressure on congressional Republicans, who will have the opportunity to pass immigration reforms in the upcoming Congress. A failure there could put a huge drag on any GOP presidential candidate, who will be at pains to both woo Latino voters while still appeasing the conservative base.
Latino voters accounted for about eight percent of the electorate in 2014 and Barreto expects that number to jump to 11 or 12 percent in 2016.