If Democrats want the House back anytime soon, they'll need to unseat Republicans like Michigan's Tim Walberg
Leading Off:
• MI-07: Good news for Democrats: Team Blue has landed one of its first legitimate recruits in the arduous battle to reclaim the House, state Rep. Gretchen Driskell. Driskell, a second-term legislator, announced on Monday that she'd take on GOP Rep. Tim Walberg, a Club for Growth dystopian who sits in a suburban district that Barack Obama narrowly won in 2008 (51-47) and narrowly lost in 2012 (51-48).
Walberg's seat doesn't count as low-hanging fruit (though Democrat Mark Schauer held its previous incarnation for a term at the end of the last decade), but given the Democrats' huge deficit, this is definitely the kind of district the party will need to win in order to take a majority. And Driskell may just have the chops to make it happen. In 2012, she knocked off a Republican incumbent in very swingy 52-47 Obama district, and prior to that, she served for over a decade as the mayor of Saline (pop. 8,810). A race for Congress is a different beast altogether, but that's why it's good to see Driskell getting such an early start. Let that be a lesson to all other would-be contenders!
Senate:
• CA-Sen: Republicans themselves acknowledge they only have a slim chance to flip this seat, but a few are looking at a run here. Assembymember Rocky Chavez seems to be emerging as a consensus pick, and the Los Angeles times reports that he's meeting with national party officials. Chavez has a good profile as a Hispanic veteran, and the Senate race could at least set him up for something down the line.
Former state party chairs Duf Sundheim and Tom Del Beccaro are also still considering, to the excitement of pretty much no one (aside from political consultants looking to make a quick buck). Tea partying former Assemblymember Tim Donnelly started mulling a bid on Friday: As we've noted before, Democrats would love to use the far-right Donnelly as a foil in downballot races, and he'd give his party a headache if he ran. Fresno Mayor Ashley Swearengin is also considering, but her team says she's more likely to seek an "executive position" in 2018.
• IL-Sen: Democratic Rep. Robin Kelly, who said last month that she was considering a bid against GOP Sen. Mark Kirk, now says that she'll make a decision by early June. Three other members of the House are also looking at bids: Bill Foster, Tammy Duckworth, and Cheri Bustos. Kelly is the only one among that group who has run statewide before, losing 50-45 to Republican Dan Rutherford for treasurer in the GOP wave of 2010.
• KS-Sen, 03: Tea partying physician and social media aficionado Milton Wolf came fairly close to unseating Sen. Pat Roberts in last year's Republican primary, and he's planning out his second act for 2016. There were reports that Wolf was planning to leave Sen. Jerry Moran alone and go after Rep. Kevin Yoder instead, but Wolf himself is hinting at another Senate race.
Last week, Wolf told the Kansas City Star that "[a]nybody who wants to step up and save our country would have much more opportunity to do that from the Senate than the House." He also took aim at Moran for helping save Mississippi Sen. Thad Cochran during his primary challenge against Christ McDaniel, though Wolf was weirdly silent about Moran's role in his own race.
If Wolf goes after Moran, he's not going to have an easy time. While Roberts' campaign skills had atrophied, Moran just got off a successful cycle helming the NRSC. And while Roberts was hurt by revelations about how little time he spent in his nominal home state, Moran does not have the same problem. Wolf would make this an interesting primary to watch, but this probably would end up becoming another sequel that isn't as much fun as the original.
• Senate: Though the final quarter of any even-numbered year is often a snoozy time for fundraising—after all, who wants to start raising money right when people feel so tapped out right after an election, particularly during the holidays?—Senate candidates don't have the luxury of waiting around. Roll Call has compiled a chart of fourth quarter fundraising numbers for every incumbent senator up for re-election in 2016, as well as members of the House who are also considering bids (or at least have gotten Great Mentioner treatment).
Gubernatorial:
• IN-Gov: Back in December, former Democratic Rep. Baron Hill started talking about running for this post in 2016. Hill offered a loose timetable for when he'll decide, saying, "we'll make that decision probably in the spring, or no later than the summer."
What's left unsaid is that Republican Gov. Mike Pence is expected to decide if he'll run for re-election or seek the White House around that time. Hill sounds ready to run against Pence, but he'll almost certainly have a better shot if this is an open seat. Former state House Speaker and 2012 Democratic gubernatorial nominee John Gregg is also considering a bid, though he hasn't been raising much money in preparation.
• OR-Gov: Oregon usually appears at the top of the list of least corrupt states, and Democratic Gov. John Kitzhaber has generally had a do-gooder reputation, so it took a lot of people by surprise when the state's largest newspaper, the Oregonian, issued an editorial last week calling him to resign because of how corrupt he is. It's an arcane controversy, though, concerning the state's first lady, Cylvia Hayes, and payment for her political consulting work on clean energy issues.
Whether any conflict-of-interest laws were violated will probably need to be sorted out by the state's ethics commission (and ultimately, the courts), not only because Hayes is continuing the career she had before Kitzhaber became governor, but also because Hayes and Kitzhaber aren't married, and the legal question hinges on whether or not they're considered a "household."
Kitzhaber's response, as of Monday, was to request that state Attorney General Ellen Rosenblum (a fellow Democrat) begin an investigation. On the surface, that may make it look like he has nothing to hide here, but it also has the effect of limiting media access to documents that may otherwise be treated as public records.
Two members of the campaign of Dennis Richardson, the Republican who lost to Kitzhaber in the 2014 election, have announced that they'll begin the recall process, though any recall can't begin in earnest until Kitzhaber has been in office for six months (meaning July), and even then, they'll have a steep hill to climb, needing to collect 220,000 signatures in 90 days, which is 15 percent of all votes cast in the last gubernatorial election. Richardson wouldn't be able to immediately gain from the efforts, though; if Kitzhaber leaves office either due to resignation or recall, Secretary of State Kate Brown, also a Democrat, would become governor until a special election could be held in November of 2016.
Other Races:
• Mayors: Odd-numbered years typically feature plenty of exciting mayoral races in big cities, and 2015 is no exception. In a new post, Jeff Singer looks at five mayor's races to watch this year.
• Special Elections: The Joni Ernst century continues. Johnny Longtorso:
Iowa HD-23: This is the seat vacated by Republican Mark Costello, who was elected to the state Senate in a December special election, that seat having been vacated by Joni Ernst. The candidates here are Democrat Steve Adams, who ran in the Senate special and received 22 percent of the vote, and Republican David Sieck, a farmer who unsuccessfully sought the nomination in that same race. The district has a distinct Republican tilt, having gone 58-41 for Mitt Romney in 2012.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Taniel, and Dreaminonempty.