Last week teacherken wrote a very thought provoking diary entitled Concealed Carry’s Body Count. Some figures were shared from the Violence Policy Center showing that 722 people have lost their lives at the hands of those who were issued a concealed carry permit. While important, whether or not the permits were issued is not necessarily germane to the incidents that occurred, but, due to the extra scrutiny a person undergoes to obtain a permit, it is reasonable to expect them to be more than just less likely to commit criminal acts of violence.
After a brief (but always pleasurable) interaction with Joy of Fishes, where she raised the issue of concealed carry and risk to the public, I decided to take a look at the numbers and compare them to national rates. Currently the population of the U.S. is around 320 million, which constitutes approximately 122 million households, 30% of which have a firearm. IIRC it is estimated that as a country we have about 300 million firearms, that means there are anywhere from 40 to 100 million people whom own guns.
According to the most recent data from the FBI, in 2013 there were 13,483 murders, giving us a murder rate of 4.5 per 100,000. Of the 13,483 murders, 8,454 were committed with a gun, and 5782 were committed with a handgun, which gives us a murder rate by gun of about 2.7 per 100,000 and a murder rate by handgun of 1.8 per 100,000. Additionally, figures from the National Institute of Justice put the firearm crime rate at 1.8 per 100,000 and firearm crimes as a percent of all violent incidents at 8%.
In getting back to the figures from the Violence Policy Center, we see that a concealed carry permit is associated with 722 deaths. 218 were suicides, 20 were unintentional fatalities and roughly 15 were deemed justifiable, leaving us with 469 people murdered by someone with a concealed carry permit (if I captured all the figures correctly, jeez haven't these people heard of a spread sheet?). Current estimates put the number of people with a valid concealed carry permit at 11 million. Using the same methodology as national statistics, the murder rate for the population of carry permit holders would be 4.3 per 100,000, which is roughly the same as the overall murder rate for the country.
If 4.3 was the actual rate I would be rather alarmed, because those with permits to carry are suppose to have a lower criminal incident rate than LEOs (or so we are frequently told). But 4.3 isn’t the correct rate, that’s because the figures provided by the VPC aren't for one year but cover a time period from 2007 to 2015. Since the number of incidents wasn’t broken down by year the most practical thing left to do was average the figures over seven years, resulting in 67 murders per year. Leaving the total number of permit carriers the same for each year (11,000,000) produces a murder rate of .6 per 100,000, which, based on the average is 7.5 times lower than the national rate of 4.5.
After averaging the numbers and working out the rates, I found the new figures to be significantly less alarming but I didn't feel they were an accurate portrayal. Subsequently I had to do a bit more digging. So I went to the .pdf that the VPC provided and collected the numbers of murders by concealed carriers for 2013 by state. I then searched for the number of concealed carry permits issued by each state which I found at legallyarmed.com. Then, as before, I used the same methodology to determine the murder rate for a states population of concealed carriers, here is what I got.
2013 |
Total population |
Handgun murders |
Handgun murder rate |
Permits issued |
CC murders |
CC Murder rate |
California |
38,332,521 |
805 |
2.1 |
35,000 |
1 |
2.9 |
Georgia |
9,992,167 |
348 |
3.5 |
600,000 |
2 |
0.3 |
Indiana |
6,570,902 |
149 |
2.3 |
557,789 |
1 |
0.2 |
Iowa |
3,090,416 |
8 |
0.3 |
243,000 |
1 |
0.4 |
Kentucky |
4,395,295 |
82 |
1.9 |
216,463 |
4 |
1.9 |
Michigan |
9,895,622 |
203 |
2.1 |
581,482 |
12 |
2.1 |
Minnesota |
5,420,380 |
53 |
1.0 |
181,286 |
2 |
1.1 |
Ohio |
11,570,808 |
208 |
1.8 |
391,816 |
4 |
1.0 |
Pennsylvania |
12,773,801 |
328 |
2.6 |
872,277 |
4 |
0.5 |
Tennessee |
6,495,978 |
152 |
2.3 |
482,073 |
1 |
0.2 |
Washington |
6,971,406 |
47 |
0.7 |
456,270 |
5 |
0.2 |
Wisconsin |
5,742,713 |
72 |
1.3 |
212,848 |
1 |
0.5 |
Totals |
121,252,009 |
2,455 |
2.0 |
4,830,304 |
38 |
0.8 |
I found these numbers to be very intriguing when viewed side by side. In 4 states the rates are the same, or close enough to be negligible, as the overall handgun rate and California is the oddball with concealed carriers at a noticeably higher rate. The remaining states are lower or significantly lower.
With regards to California, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan and Minnesota, if a trend could be identified, showing equal or higher murder rates for those with carry permits, that data might be a good metric for states to use to re-evaluate the veracity of their permitting system. Additionally, in these instances, if a clear pattern of criminal offenses could be identified (type, location, age...) it would provide very good evidence as to the type of behaviors that serve as precursors to these sorts of incidents. Then with a robust data base clearly associating particular crimes with increased likelihood of committing murder, sound and beneficial policies could be developed and implemented.
Now let’s look at the suicides. According to the CDC in 2013 there were 21,175 people who used a gun to commit suicide for a rate of 6.7 per 100,000. Averaging the 218 suicides cited in the article over seven years, we get 31 permit holders committing suicide per year for a rate of .3 per 100,000 which is 23 times lower than the national rate.
Based on available data, the incident rate of concealed carriers is considerably lower than our national rates, approximately 5.5 times lower for murder and 23 times lower for suicide, therefore, it seems pretty clear that any risk we pose to the general public, or ourselves, is lower than the current exposure we have to those who commit gun violence. We gun owners and holders of carry permits are not the problem regardless of how the problem of gun violence is defined, whether criminal or not.
However distasteful it may be, the reality is that there are 300 million guns, 40 to 100 million gun owners (this is a huge demographic), the right to keep and bear arms is recognized as an individual right, 42 states are shall issue, 1 state, Vermont is unrestricted, 7 states and the District of Columbia are may issue and to repeal or amend the 2nd Amendment would require ratification by 38 states. Ladies and Gentlemen, the bar is set very high. Watching the country go in the direction it’s going with regard to firearm legislation must be very frustrating for a lot of people who I know want to do something about the gun violence we are experiencing.
Common ground must be found for any substantial progress to be made. An agreement must be reached as to what the problem is so goals can be established. Once that is accomplished, plans can be developed, implemented and effectively resourced that work within and uphold the foundational tenants of our constitution.