With Kay Hagan's 2016 plans up in the air, the DSCC is scouting out backup candidates
Leading Off:
• NC-Sen: The DSCC has been encouraging former Sen. Kay Hagan to run against Republican incumbent Richard Burr, but it's far from clear if she actually will. Hagan recently dropped a vague "I'm not saying 'yes,' and I'm not saying 'no'," and we may have to wait a long time before we actually get a definite answer.
Hagan is the first choice of national Democrats, but Roll Call's Emily Cahn tells us that they are preparing backup plans if she declines. State Treasurer Janet Cowell has been mentioned quite a lot as a potential Senate candidate, but until now, it's all just been talk. However, Cahn tells us that the DSCC has been talking to Cowell, though there's no indication how interested she is.
Democratic operatives also name state Senate Minority Leader Daniel Blue, state Sen. Jeff Jackson, and state Rep. Grier Martin as other possibilities. Blue served as the state's first African American speaker in the 1990s and ran for the Senate in 2002, but he lost the Democratic primary to Erskine Bowles 40-29. Jackson has only been in the state legislature for about a year, but he's impressed a lot of people. Martin refused the DSCC's overtures in 2008, but he might be more interested now that he's stuck in the minority. We also ran through some other possible Democratic candidates in our Daily Kos Great Mentioner series. However, there's no doubt that the DSCC would be elated if Hagan runs again and gives them a battle-hardened candidate against Burr.
Senate:
• MD-Sen, Gov: Labor Secretary Tom Perez just took his name out of consideration for next year's Senate race, saying there were "enough people running" already. (In point of fact, only two are: Reps. Donna Edwards and Chris Van Hollen.) However, Perez, a Democrat, had previously been mentioned as a possible 2018 gubernatorial candidate, so that may still be on the table.
Meanwhile, one more potential Republican has surfaced, with former Anne Arundel County Executive Laura Neuman saying she's thinking about a bid. (Amusingly, she says her kids are in favor: "They'd like to march in parades again.") However, Neuman has never actually won an election. She was appointed to the county executive's post in 2013, then lost the GOP primary last year to a more experienced pol.
Gubernatorial:
• ME-Gov, Sen: Democrats in Maine are apparently picking up faint whispers that GOP Sen. Susan Collins might run for governor in 2018 when Paul LePage, a fellow Republican, will be term-limited, a move that could seriously alter the state's political landscape. The evidence is thin, but one unnamed Democratic legislator pointed out to the Sun Journal's Scott Thistle that several Collins staffers have now taken jobs in the legislature, describing them as a "scouting party" for the senator.
And another Democrat, state Rep. Matt Moonen, has proposed legislation that would take away the governor's ability to appoint a replacement for Collins, instead requiring a special election; Thistle interprets this as a sign that Democrats are concerned Collins might indeed make such a bid. However, with Republicans in control of the state Senate, the bill will go nowhere, and LePage, of course, opposes the idea.
If Collins did wind up going for governor—a post she sought once before, losing in 1994 to now-Sen. Angus King—she'd be a formidable candidate and would likely be favored. But it would also give Democrats a good chance at finally picking up her seat in 2020. Even if they had to face off against a Republican appointee, that replacement would necessarily fall short of Collins' unique crossover appeal, plus it would also be a presidential year. In other words, it might mean trading the governorship for a Senate seat, a trade that national Democrats would gladly make.
• WA-Gov: The idea that Republican state Sen. Andy Hill is a likely gubernatorial candidate against Democratic incumbent Jay Inslee has been floating around Washington for many months now, but here's the first really tangible mention of it. Seattle's alt-weekly The Stranger got its hands on a recent e-mail from ex-Secretary of State Sam Reed (who's sort of the patron saint of Washington's remaining moderate Republicans) saying that Hill is giving the race "very serious consideration" and talking him up to other fellow center-right power-brokers.
Hill had one of the narrowest re-elections of any state senators in 2014, but in one of the state's most dollar-intensive races that year and in SD-45, a suburban district which went 58-40 for Obama in 2012. So Hill has some experience winning in a district that's bluer than the state as a whole. What's more interesting about this story, though, is that Reed is also an ally of ex-Attorney General and 2012 Republican nominee Rob McKenna. If McKenna were interested in a rematch with Inslee -- as seemed very likely a few years ago -- Reed probably wouldn't be touting Hill. But McKenna seems to have disappeared from the gubernatorial conversation lately, so it's seeming likelier McKenna is content to stay in the private sector.
House:
• MI-01: 2014 nominee Jerry Cannon has been considering a rematch with Republican Rep. Dan Benishek, but he may not have the Democratic primary to himself. Roll Call cites Democratic operatives who say that state Rep. Scott Dianda is contemplating a bid of his own, though we don't have any more information yet. Democrats are going to need to work hard to win back this 54-45 Romney seat, but Dianda has demonstrated some crossover appeal. Dianda won his western Upper Peninsula seat by about 3 points as Romney was taking it by 4, and he easily survived the 2014 Republican wave.
Other Races:
• Chicago Mayor: Both Mayor Rahm Emanuel and his opponent Cook County Commissioner Jesus "Chuy" Garcia, as well as their respective allies, have been acting like they expect a competitive race on April 7. So it came as a huge surprise when APC Research, polling on behalf of the Chicago Tribune, gave Rahm a clear 51-37 lead on Friday. The incumbent outpolled Garcia 45-34 in the February primary, so this would mean that Rahm has managed to quickly consolidate a big portion of the voters who supported other candidates while Garcia has largely stayed flat.
Ogden & Fry has been the only other independent pollster to take a look at this contest, and their last few surveys gave Rahm a small edge. But on Sunday, their tracking poll gave the mayor a stronger 47-37 lead. Garcia did get some good news on Saturday when the powerful SEIU Local 1 endorsed his campaign. SEIU Local 1 is very well-funded and well-organized, and they should give him some vital support on the ground. We'll see if they or any other organization spends big on ads for Garcia, or if Rahm and his allies continue to dominate the airwaves from now until Election Day.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Taniel, and Dreaminonempty