Part Three!
North Carolina
Alabama and Minnesota
Now we tackle Illinois. In the 2010 cycle, Illinois was one of two states, functionally, where Democrats controlled the process and actually took advantage of it (the other of course was Maryland). And in both cases, while they mostly succeeded, they didn't do it perfectly. Democrats successfully targeted 4 Republican incumbents, combined two incumbents into one district and went after one more district, though they narrowly failed. In 2014, Team Blue lost two districts, one in North Chicagoland and the other downstate.
Here's my attempt to shore up Democrats after the Prairie State loses another district in 2020.
Here's the current map
As before, I must stress this is not what I expect will happen in 2020 in Illinois or any of the previous states, merely one political junkie's expression of what could happen.
Chicagoland
District 1 Blue
Voting-age population demographics (VAP): 41.9 White, 50.2 Black, 4.9 Hispanic
2008: 78% Obama
Incumbent Bobby Rush (D-Chicago) lives here. Black majority. Chicago city, Cook and Will Counties. Not much to say here, will continue to be safe for Democrats and black representation. Safe D, black hold
District 2 Green
VAP: 36.1 W, 50.1 B, 11.7 H
2008: 79.5% Obama
Incumbent Robin Kelly (D-Chicago) lives here. Black majority. Chicago city, Cook, Will and Kankakee Counties. Same as above, very little changed from the current map. Safe D, black hold
District 3 Purple
VAP: 53.7 W, 15.7 B, 22.9 H, 6.7 Asian
2008: 65.4 Obama
Open. Chicago city, Cook and DuPage Counties. This is my first major deviation from the current map, where I make a concerted effort to eliminate Dan Lipinski, who is atop most lists of "worthless Democrats". Lipinski is drawn of out his district, and it adds large amounts of black and Hispanic territory, making the seat 7 points bluer by 2008 numbers, which will make him vulnerable in a primary. It's unlikely he'd be coming back in 2022. Safe D, minority opportunity
District 4 Red
VAP: 29.4 W, 5.3 B, 62 H
2008: 78.3 Obama
Incumbents Dan Lipinski (D?-Western Springs) and Luis Gutierrez (D-Chicago) live here. Majority Hispanic. Chicago city and Cook County. You'll notice I didn't connect the "earmuffs" of the district myself, I didn't think it was necessary to. Mapmakers can split those precincts, either along the Cook/Dupage border as before, or the Lake Michigan coast. Lipinski certainly wouldn't run here. Safe D, Hispanic hold
District 5 Yellow
VAP: 71.1 W, 16.9 H, 7.7 A
2008: 69.1 Obama
Incumbent Mike Quigley (D-Chicago) lives here. Chicago city, Cook and DuPage Counties. Loses a little bit from the old district, but no worries. Safe D
District 7 Black
VAP: 46.1 W, 34.2 B, 12.9 H, 5.5 A
2008: 80.7 Obama
Incumbent Danny Davis (D-Chicago) lives here. Plurality white. Chicago city, Cook and DuPage Counties. It's impossible to draw three majority-black districts in Illinois with 7 districts, and retrogression isn't in play at present, so instead of making a plurality-black district, I gave some black territory to Lipinski's district to weaken him. The Democratic primary in this district will still be heavily black, so it will likely continue to elect black representatives. Safe D, black hold
District 8 Blue
VAP: 64.7 W, 18.9 H, 11.2 A
2008: 59.2 Obama
Incumbent Tammy Duckworth (D-Hoffman Estates) lives here. Cook, DuPage and Kane Counties, including areas like Elgin, Schaumberg, Lombard and Downer's Grove. Duckworth in weakened 1.3 points by 2008 numbers, but in anything but a wave she (or any Democrat) would be fine. Safe D
District 9 Lime
VAP: 68 W, 8.2 B, 9.4 H, 12.5 A
2008: 67.5 Obama
Incumbents Jan Schakowsky (D-Evanston), Pete Roskam (R-Arlington Heights) and Bob Dold! (R-Kenilworth) live here. A small sliver of Chicago plus Cook County. Roskam will continue to run in the 6th, and Dold runs in the 10th. The district loses one point in order to target the 10th. No sweat. Safe D
District 11 Orange
VAP: 60.4 W, 10.6 B, 21.3 H, 6.6 A
2008: 60.8 Obama
Incumbent Bill Foster (D-Naperville) likely lives here, but regardless he runs here. DuPage, Kane and Will Counties, comprising the cities of Aurora, Joliet and half of Naperville. The district loses 0.5 of safety, but no sweat again. Safe D
Greater Chicagoland
District 6 Cyan
VAP: 84.2 W, 9 H
2008: 50.7 Obama
Incumbent Randy Hultgren (R-Crystal Lake) lives here. DuPage, Kane, McHenry and Lake Counties. It's the 14th district that is largely eliminated, colliding Hultgren and Roskam's territory. Advantage Roskam. Safe R
District 10 Pink
VAP: 64.4 W, 6.2 B, 18.4 H, 9.7 A
2008: 63.4 Obama
No incumbents live here, but Bob Dold! will of course run here. Cook and Lake Counties. Slightly bluer than the current 10th by 2008 numbers, we'll continue to win this district in presidential years. Midterms, it's unclear. Likely D
The Rest
District 12 Blue
VAP: 79.9 W, 15.4 B
2008: 57.9 Obama
Incumbents Mike Bost (R-Murphysboro), Rodney Davis (R-Springfield) and John Shimkus (R-Collinsville) live here. The Illinois half of Greater St. Louis, plus Springfield. 3 points bluer than both the current 12th and 13th by 2008 numbers, whoever emerges from a Republican primary (if they both run here) would be in danger. Shimkus of course runs in the 15th.Lean D
District 13 Red
VAP: 79.8 W, 11 B
2008: 56.3 Obama
No incumbents live here. Peoria, Bloomington, Decatur, Champaign/Urbana and Danville. 1.7 points bluer than the current 13th and with no incumbent, this would be fun to watch. Lean D
District 14 Purple
VAP: 85.7 W, 8.3 H
2008: 50.9 Obama
Incumbent Adam Kinzinger (R-Rockford) may or may not live here since most of Rockford is in the 17th, but he'll run here regardless. North Central. Nominally the 14th, this much more closely resemble's Kinzinger's current 16th. If Hultgren tries to run here instead of the 6th, advantage Kinzinger (sorry Randy). Safe R
District 15 Orange
VAP: 92.5 W
2008: 42.9 Obama
No incumbents live here, but John Shimkus will run here. The South. A-yup. Safe R
District 16 Lime
VAP: 94.1 W
2008: 41.1 Obama
Incumbent Aaron Schock (R-Peoria) lives here. Central Illinois. Mr. Downton Abbey McInstagram will be fine here. Safe R
District 17 Gold
VAP: 84.2 W, 6.7 B, 6.9 H
2008: 57.5 Obama
Incumbent Cheri Bustos (D-East Moline) lives here. Rockford, the Quad Cities and along the Mississippi River, plus some areas in the center. I pulled the district out of Peoria to create the 13th, and only lost 2.5 points off Obama's margin. Considering won her rematch against Bobby Schilling by 10 points in a wave year, I think that means she's pretty solid. Likely D
What do you think?