If anybody out there is looking for some last-minute NCAA bracket advice: Do not pick Gonzaga to make the Final Four! Gonzaga is one of those teams that the bobbleheads have been saying for years will be contenders for an NCAA championship, but always finds a way to choke by the Elite Eight. For the record, I have Gonzaga losing to #7 Iowa in the Second Round (or the Third Round as it's called now, thanks to the play-in games).
If you need to know who I picked to win it all, then you haven't been paying attention.
March Madness begins below the orange squiggle.
Part 1 -- North Dakota, South Dakota
Part 2 -- Alaska, Delaware, Maine, New Hampshire
Part 3 -- Hawaii, Idaho, Nebraska
Part 4 -- West Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada
Part 5 -- Utah, Kansas, West Virginia
Part 6 -- Mississippi, Iowa
Part 7 -- Connecticut, Oklahoma, Oregon
Part 8 -- Kentucky
Part 9 -- South Carolina
Part 10 -- Louisiana
Part 11 -- Alabama
This week, we're looking at Colorado, the first state to see an eleventh district. This state could certainly use some creative drawing, so we're going to see two scenarios.
Scenario A (Democratic gerrymandering):
Close-up of Denver and Colorado Springs:
1st District (blue): Diana DeGette (D-Denver). Most of the city-county of Denver, plus a few suburbs. Racial clusterfuck (58.3% minority). 79.4% Obama. Safe D.
2d District (green): Ed Perlmutter (D-Golden). Western and southern suburbs of Denver. Golden, Lakewood, Littleton, and Centennial. 55.1% Obama, which is about the rating of his current district. That should be enough to call it Safe D.
3d District (purple): Open. Northern Denver suburbs and the rest of Jefferson County. Arvada, Westminster, and Columbine. 54.1% Obama. Lean D.
4th District (red): Mike Coffman (R-Aurora). Backward "7" shape that starts in Aurora, goes through southeastern Denver, and ends in Castle Rock. 57.6% Obama, so Coffman doesn't stand a chance here. He might jump to the 5th District, but he might lose there, too. Andrew Romanoff (D-Aurora) can take this seat if he wants it. Lean D with Coffman, Safe D without Coffman.
5th District (gold): Doug Lamborn (R-Colorado Springs) and/or Coffman. Aurora to Colorado Springs. 54.1% Obama. Lamborn is too wackadoodle for this district, so he would go down in defeat in any general election. Chances are, he would head for the eastern suburbs. Coffman already represents a D+1 district, but his entire constituency is in the Denver metro area. With Colorado Springs making up more than half of this district, Coffman might be in trouble. Tossup with Coffman, Lean D otherwise.
6th District (teal): Jared Polis (D-Boulder). Boulder, Broomfield, and Brighton. 66.4% Obama. Safe D.
7th District (dark gray): Ken Buck (R-Greeley). Fort Collins, Loveland, Longmont, and Greeley. 55.7% Obama. In this district, Buck is fucked. No question that he will move to the suburbs. A good get for team Blue here--former 4th District rep and 2014 state treasurer candidate Betsy Markey (D-Fort Collins). Lean D.
8th District (slate blue): Open. A highly deranged district that starts just south of Centennial, collects all of the ski resort towns in central Colorado, runs down to Durango, and shifts north to Telluride. 54.7% Obama. Former 3d District congressman John Salazar (D-Manassa) could play for a comeback in this district. Safe D with Salazar, Lean D otherwise.
9th District (cyan): Scott Tipton (R-Cortez). An equally deranged district that is basically the rest of western Colorado that was cut out to make the 8th District. 60.7% McCain. Safe R.
10th District (deep pink): Buck (and possibly Lamborn). Batshit crazy eastern Colorado. Suburbs of Greeley and Colorado Springs are also part of this district. 66.6% McCain, so expect a lot of fireworks from a Buck-Lamborn primary. Lamborn could defer to Buck and run in the 11th instead, but whoever gets the Republican nomination here will easily win the general. Safe R.
11th District (chartreuse): Possibly Lamborn. South central Colorado. Pueblo and some of Colorado Springs. 52.7% McCain. Could be too moderate for Lamborn, but any Republican should be the favorite in November. Safe R.
13 Electoral Votes: Although Colorado is trending blue, there is still that nasty conservative streak that allows people like Cory Gardner to get elected statewide. Therefore, I have to say it's a Tossup.
Scenario B (fairer map):
Denver close-up:
1st District (blue): Southern Denver plus Littleton. 68.1% Obama. DeGette would probably run here to open up the 3d District for a new minority representative. Safe D.
2d District (green): Aurora and Centennial. 57.3% Obama. The beauty of this alternate map is that Coffman has absolutely nowhere to run. The city of Aurora is now surrounded by blue districts. Coffman will probably retire and default to the Democratic nominee. Safe D.
3d District (purple): North Denver, Arvada, and Westminster. 53.1% minority. 72.4% Obama. A prime Hispanic pickup. Safe D.
4th District (red): Just like before, this district is fully contained within Jefferson County. 53.4% Obama. Probably less blue than Perlmutter would prefer, but he should be OK. Lean D.
5th District (gold): The three Bs. Broomfield, Boulder, and Breckinridge. 67.9% Obama. Polis would love this deep-blue district. Safe D.
6th District (teal): Less gerrymandered yet bluer conglomeration of Fort Collins, Loveland, Longmont, and Greeley. 57.5% Obama. Buck still wants no part of this district. Safe D.
7th District (dark gray): Northwestern Colorado. Grand Junction, Steamboat Springs, and Aspen. 53.3% McCain. Open seat for any conservative. Safe R.
8th District (slate blue): Southwestern and south central Colorado. Includes the eastern exurbs of Colorado Springs and Pueblo. 55.9% McCain. Tipton will cruise. Safe R
9th District (cyan): Colorado Springs and Pueblo. 52.2% Obama. Expect two bloody primaries and one bloody general, neither of which will include Lamborn. Tossup.
10th District (deep pink): All of the shit between Denver and Colorado Springs. 61.2% McCain. Lamborn already represents most of this area now, so he would definitely run here. Safe R.
11th District (chartreuse): You already know what it is. Eastern Colorado plus the Greeley suburbs. 58.3% McCain. Perfect for Evil Uncle Buck. Safe R.
CUBE ROOT HOUSE (338 required for majority)
States counted: AK, AL, AR, CO, CT, DE, HI, IA, ID, KS, KY, LA, ME, MS, MT, ND, NE, NH, NM, NV, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, UT, VT, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: 48 (added CO-1, CO-2, CO-4, CO-6)
Lean D: 22 (added CO-3, CO-7, CO-8)
Tossup: 10 (added CO-5)
Lean R: 7
Safe R: 65 (added CO-9, CO-10, CO-11)
Total: 70 D, 10 Toss, 72 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: 44 (added CO-1, CO-2, CO-3, CO-5, CO-6)
Lean D: 15 (added CO-4)
Tossup: 12 (added CO-9)
Lean R: 9
Safe R: 72 (added CO-7, CO-8, CO-10, CO-11)
Total: 59 D, 12 Toss, 81 R
CUBE ROOT ELECTORAL COLLEGE (390 required for presidency)
States counted: AK, AL, AR, CO, CT, DE, HI, IA, ID, KS, KY, LA, ME, MS, MT, ND, NE, NH, NM, NV, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, UT, VT, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: CT (10), DE (4), HI (5), ME (4), OR (10), RI (4), VT (3) = 40
Lean D: IA (9), ME (1), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7), NV (8) = 31
Tossup: CO (13), NE (1) = 14
Lean R: MT (4), SC (12) = 16
Safe R: AK (4), AL (12), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), KY (12), LA (12), MS (9), ND (4), NE (4), OK (10), SD (4), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 109
Total: 71 D, 14 Toss, 125 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: CT (10), DE (4), HI (5), ME (4), OR (10), RI (4), VT (3) = 40
Lean D: ME (1), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7) = 14
Tossup: CO (13), IA (9), NV (8) = 30
Lean R: MT (4), NE (1), SC (12) = 17
Safe R: AK (4), AL (12), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), KY (12), LA (12), MS (9), ND (4), NE (4), OK (10), SD (4), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 109
Total: 54 D, 30 Toss, 126 R