Continuing my Hundred Thousand Rule series, I'll now focus on what the congressional districts of Alaska and North Dakota would look like if the size of the U.S. House of Representatives were expanded to 3,082 members, or one member for every 100,000 residents of the 50 states, rounded up.
Currently, both North Dakota and Alaska have one house district each, under the Hundred Thousand Rule, both states would have seven house districts each.
NORTH DAKOTA - 7 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS
North Dakota - Statewide View
North Dakota - Fargo/Cass County Inset
Spreadsheets are available
here. Data is from Dave's Redistricting App (DRA), Wikipedia, and my own calculations based on DRA and/or Wikipedia data. Election figures are two-party totals from the 2008 presidential election.
District 1 (Blue)
Total Population: 95,489 (90% White, 1% Black, 4% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 2% Native American, 2% Other Races)
Voting Age Population: 75,770 (92% White, 1% Black, 3% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 2% Native American, 1% Other Races)
Deviation from Mean District Population: -595 (-0.62%)
2008 Presidential Election: 52.03% Obama, 47.97% McCain
Partisan Lean Relative to Nation: 1.66% Republican
Partisan Lean Relative to State: 6.46% Democratic
This is a Grand Forks-based district that includes the northeastern part of North Dakota. This is the only North Dakota district to not split any counties; the district includes all of Pembina, Walsh, Grand Forks, Steele, and Traill Counties. Surprisingly, this district is only slightly Republican-leaning, and both major parties would probably contest this district, although whoever Republicans nominate would be at least slightly favored under most circumstances.
District 2 (Green)
Total Population: 96,839 (94% White, 1% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 1% Other Races)
Voting Age Population: 72,525 (96% White, 1% Black, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 1% Other Races)
Deviation from Mean District Population: +755 (+0.78%)
2008 Presidential Election: 49.19% Obama, 50.81% McCain
Partisan Lean Relative to Nation: 4.5% Republican
Partisan Lean Relative to State: 3.62% Democratic
This is a southeastern North Dakota district that includes the rural portions of Cass County, as well as all of Barnes, Ransom, Richland, Sargent, and Dickey Counties. This district is more Democratic than North Dakota as a whole, but it has a fairly heavy Republican lean. A Heidi Heitkamp-type Democrat may be able to win here, especially in a year strongly favorable to Democrats.
District 3 (Purple)
Total Population: 94,901 (89% White, 3% Black, 2% Hispanic, 3% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 2% Other Races)
Voting Age Population: 77,245 (90% White, 2% Black, 2% Hispanic, 3% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 1% Other Races)
Deviation from Mean District Population: -1,183 (-1.25%)
2008 Presidential Election: 56.35% Obama, 43.65% McCain
Partisan Lean Relative to Nation: 2.67% Democratic
Partisan Lean Relative to State: 10.78% Democratic
I've included an inset map for this district; it's a district entirely within Cass County that includes most of the Fargo urban area. This is the only North Dakota district that is more Democratic than the country as a whole according to the 2008 Presidential Election results, although Republicans would likely contest the district.
District 4 (Red)
Total Population: 96,645 (80% White, 1% Hispanic, 17% Native American, 1% Other Races)
Voting Age Population: 74,225 (84% White, 1% Hispanic, 13% Native American, 1% Other Races)
Deviation from Mean District Population: +561 (+0.58%)
2008 Presidential Election: 48.2% Obama, 51.8% McCain
Partisan Lean Relative to Nation: 5.49% Republican
Partisan Lean Relative to State: 2.63% Democratic
This is a Jamestown/Devils Lake district that includes all of Rolette, Towner, Cavalier, Ramsey, Benson, McHenry, Pierce, Sheridan, Wells, Eddy, Foster, Nelson, Griggs, Kidder, Stutsman, and La Moure Counties, as well as the eastern one-third of Bottineau County. This district is more Democratic than North Dakota as a whole, but it's still Republican-leaning, meaning that it would probably take a Heidi Heitkamp-type Democrat to win here, although this district appears to have a growing Native American population that may allow for a more progressive Democrat to win a district like this a couple of decades or so from now.
District 5 (Yellow)
Total Population: 94,741 (93% White, 1% Black, 1% Hispanic, 4% Native American, 1% Other Races)
Voting Age Population: 73,758 (95% White, 1% Hispanic, 3% Native American, 1% Other Races)
Deviation from Mean District Population: -1,343 (-1.42%)
2008 Presidential Election: 37.47% Obama, 62.53% McCain
Partisan Lean Relative to Nation: 16.22% Republican
Partisan Lean Relative to State: 8.11% Republican
This district is a Bismarck-based district that includes all of Burleigh, Emmons, Logan, and McIntosh Counties, as well as the southern part of McLean County. Kevin Cramer, the incumbent Republican U.S. Representative, lives in this district and would likely run here. Despite being an overwhelmingly Republican district, there is a Democrat who, at least theoretically, may be able to win this district: Erin Oban, a state senator who won a state senate race in a Bismarck-based district in 2014 by defeating a far-right Republican incumbent. Otherwise, this district would almost certainly elect a Republican.
District 6 (Teal)
Total Population: 96,973 (86% White, 2% Black, 3% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 6% Native American, 2% Other Races)
Voting Age Population: 74,534 (89% White, 2% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 5% Native American, 1% Other Races)
Deviation from Mean District Population: +889 (+0.92%)
2008 Presidential Election: 40.51% Obama, 59.49% McCain
Partisan Lean Relative to Nation: 13.18% Republican
Partisan Lean Relative to State: 5.07% Republican
This is the Minot-based northwestern North Dakota district which includes all of Divide, Burke, Renville, Mountrail, and Ward Counties, as well as nearly all of rural Williams County, the portions of McKenzie and Dunn Counties that are on the Fort Berthold Native American reservation, northern, central, and eastern parts of Mercer County, the northern part of McLean County, and the western two-thirds of Bottineau County. This district is a Republican stronghold where the Republican primary is tantamount to election.
District 7 (Gray)
Total Population: 97,003 (90% White, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 6% Native American, 2% Other Races)
Voting Age Population: 74,663 (92% White, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 5% Native American, 1% Other Races)
Deviation from Mean District Population: +919 (+0.95%)
2008 Presidential Election: 35.75% Obama, 64.25% McCain
Partisan Lean Relative to Nation: 17.94% Republican
Partisan Lean Relative to State: 9.82% Republican
This is a southwestern North Dakota district that includes nearly all of the areas of North Dakota located south and west of the Missouri River and the Willston area that is on the north bank of the Missouri River. All of Oliver, Morton, Grant, Sioux, Adams, Bowman, Slope, Hettinger, Stark, Billings, and Golden Valley counties are part of the district, as well as the vast majority of McKenzie County, the southern three-fourths of Dunn County, west central and southwestern Mercer County, and Willston and areas along the Missouri River immediately upstream from Willston in Williams County. This is the most Republican district in North Dakota, and whoever wins the Republican nomination would likely win the general election.
Under the Hundred Thousand Rule, North Dakota would have four (at least theoretically) competitive districts (three are Republican-leaning and one is Democratic-leaning), two solidly Republican districts, and one district that a specific Democrat may be able to win but would otherwise be solidly Republican.
ALASKA - 7 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS
Alaska - Statewide View
Alaska - South Central Alaska Inset
Alaska - Anchorage Inset
Spreadsheets are available
here. Data is from DRA, Wikipedia, and my own calculations based on DRA and/or Wikipedia data. Election data is from the 2008 Presidential Election and the 2008 U.S. Senate Election in Alaska.
Several notes regarding Alaska:
- Alaska is one of two states (the other being Louisiana) that does not have counties; Alaska has boroughs as the state's county equivalent. However, many areas of Alaska are not part of any borough, so the "Unorganized Borough" of Alaska is divided into numerous census areas for statistical purposes. Six of Alaska's cities are boroughs onto themselves, these are known as consolidated city-boroughs
- Virtually all Native Americans in Alaska are Alaskan Natives, although there may be a few Native Americans in Alaska that are from a tribe that is not native to Alaska.
- Alaska has probably the most bizarre politics of any state: it's one of the least polarized states in the country, and independent candidates and write-in candidates have been known to win statewide elections in Alaska in recent years.
- The 2008 U.S. Senate election in Alaska had an unusual result: the Democratic challenger, Mark Begich, narrowly defeated the Republican incumbent, Ted Stevens, due to the incumbent having been convicted on federal corruption charges several days before the general election. The 2008 U.S. Senate results are considerably more favorable for Democrats than normal electoral circumstances in Alaska and should be treated as a guide for any hypothetical race between a top-tier Democratic candidate and a tainted Republican candidate, which is a rare scenario in Alaska.
District 1 (Blue)
Total Population: 100,779 (70% White, 1% Black, 4% Hispanic, 5% Asian/Pacific Islander, 14% Native American, 8% Other Races)
Voting Age Population: 76,850 (73% White, 1% Black, 3% Hispanic, 5% Asian/Pacific Islander, 14% Native American, 5% Other Races)
Deviation from Mean District Population: -683 (-0.68%)
2008 Presidential Election: 46.58% Obama, 53.42% McCain
2008 U.S. Senate Election: 56.29% Begich, 43.71% Stevens
Partisan Lean Based on 2008 Presidential Election: 7.11% Republican
Partisan Lean Based on 2008 U.S. Senate Election: 6.29% Democratic
This is the Juneau-based southeastern Alaska district; the district includes all of the consolidated city-boroughs of Juneau, Wrangell, Sitka, Haines, and Yakutat, all of the boroughs of Ketchikan Gateway and Petersburg, all of the census areas of Prince of Wales-Hyder, Hoonah-Angoon, Valdez-Cordova, and Southeast Fairbanks, and the mostly sparsely-populated southeastern part of the consolidated city-borough of Anchorage. This district is Republican-leaning and would like, although a Democratic candidate can win here with the right circumstances.
District 2 (Green)
Total Population: 101,559 (72% White, 4% Black, 6% Hispanic, 3% Asian/Pacific Islander, 10% Native American, 6% Other Races)
Voting Age Population: 75,466 (75% White, 4% Black, 5% Hispanic, 3% Asian/Pacific Islander, 9% Native American, 4% Other Races)
Deviation from Mean District Population: +97 (+0.1%)
2008 Presidential Election: 37.17% Obama, 62.83% McCain
2008 U.S. Senate Election: 50.47% Begich, 49.53% Stevens
Partisan Lean Based on 2008 Presidential Election: 16.52% Republican
Partisan Lean Based on 2008 U.S. Senate Election: 0.47% Democratic
This is a Fairbanks-based district that includes all of Fairbanks North Star Borough and the northern two-thirds of the Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area. Republican U.S. Representative Don Young lives in this district, and he'd run here and likely win. When Young retires, this district would likely elect another Republican, although a Democrat can win if bizarre circumstances allow for that to happen.
District 3 (Purple)
Total Population: 101,044 (Native American plurality; 34% White, 1% Black, 3% Hispanic, 7% Asian/Pacific Islander, 49.8% Native American, 5% Other Races)
Voting Age Population: 71,492 (Native American plurality; 40% White, 1% Black, 3% Hispanic, 8% Asian/Pacific Islander, 44% Native American, 4% Other Races)
Deviation from Mean District Population: -418 (-0.41%)
2008 Presidential Election: 44.12% Obama, 55.88% McCain
2008 U.S. Senate Election: 57.38% Begich, 42.62% Stevens
Partisan Lean Based on 2008 Presidential Election: 9.57% Republican
Partisan Lean Based on 2008 U.S. Senate Election: 7.38% Democratic
This is, more than likely, the single largest congressional district by land area under the Hundred Thousand Rule. The district includes all of the northern and western portions of Alaska, taking in all of North Slope, Northwest Artic, Bristol Bay, Kodiak Island, Lake and Peninsula, and Aleutians East boroughs, as well as all of the Nome, Wade Hampton, Bethel, Dillingham, and Aleutians West census areas, the western and central portions of Kenai Peninsula Borough, and the southwestern part of the Yukon-Koyukuk census area. The district is, strangely, a Republican-leaning minority-majority district: despite the district being only 40% white by voting-age population and having a large plurality of Alaskan Natives, Republicans tend to do well in this district, probably due to low turnout among the non-white population. Democrats can win here, although it would take high minority turnout and a tainted Republican candidate for that to happen.
District 4 (Red)
Total Population: 101,977 (73% White, 2% Black, 5% Hispanic, 7% Asian/Pacific Islander, 7% Native American, 5% Other Races)
Voting Age Population: 75,755 (77% White, 2% Black, 4% Hispanic, 7% Asian/Pacific Islander, 6% Native American, 4% Other Races)
Deviation from Mean District Population: +515 (+0.51%)
2008 Presidential Election: 33.02% Obama, 66.98% McCain
2008 U.S. Senate Election: 44.44% Begich, 55.56% Stevens
Partisan Lean Based on 2008 Presidential Election: 20.67% Republican
Partisan Lean Based on 2008 U.S. Senate Election: 5.56% Republican
This is a South Anchorage/Kenai Peninsula district, as the southern part of the densely-populated areas of the consolidated city-borough of Anchorage and the northern and eastern parts of Kenai Peninsula itself in Kenai Peninsula Borough are included in the district. This district is strongly Republican.
District 5 (Yellow)
Total Population: 100,716 (83% White, 1% Black, 4% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 5% Native American, 6% Other Races)
Voting Age Population: 72,000 (85% White, 1% Black, 3% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 5% Native American, 4% Other Races)
Deviation from Mean District Population: -746 (-0.74%)
2008 Presidential Election: 25.17% Obama, 74.83% McCain
2008 U.S. Senate Election: 39.95% Begich, 60.05% Stevens
Partisan Lean Based on 2008 Presidential Election: 28.52% Republican
Partisan Lean Based on 2008 U.S. Senate Election: 10.05% Republican
This district is a Wasilla-based district that includes the northeastern sparsely-populated areas of the Anchorage consolidated city-borough and all of Mantanuska-Susitna and Denali boroughs. The only real race here is for the Republican nomination.
District 6 (Teal)
Total Population: 101,601 (53% White, 6% Black, 9% Hispanic, 14% Asian/Pacific Islander, 10% Native American, 8% Other Races)
Voting Age Population: 77,957 (59% White, 6% Black, 7% Hispanic, 12% Asian/Pacific Islander, 10% Native American, 5% Other Races)
Deviation from Mean District Population: +139 (+0.14%)
2008 Presidential Election: 51.17% Obama, 48.83% McCain
2008 U.S. Senate Election: 57.82% Begich, 42.18% Stevens
Partisan Lean Based on 2008 Presidential Election: 2.52% Republican
Partisan Lean Based on 2008 U.S. Senate Election: 7.82% Democratic
This district is entirely within the Anchorage consolidated city-borough and includes most of the main Anchorage urban area. This is the only Alaska district to be won by Barack Obama in the 2008 presidential election, although it's more Republican-leaning than the country as a whole based on the 2008 presidential election. Both major parties would likely contest this district heavily.
District 7 (Gray)
Total Population: 102,555 (64% White, 7% Black, 8% Hispanic, 8% Asian/Pacific Islander, 6% Native American, 7% Other Races)
Voting Age Population: 73,333 (69% White, 6% Black, 7% Hispanic, 7% Asian/Pacific Islander, 6% Native American, 5% Other Races)
Deviation from Mean District Population: +1,093 (+1.07%)
2008 Presidential Election: 36.72% Obama, 63.28% McCain
2008 U.S. Senate Election: 49.68% Begich, 50.32% Stevens
Partisan Lean Based on 2008 Presidential Election: 16.97% Republican
Partisan Lean Based on 2008 U.S. Senate Election: 0.32% Republican
This district is also entirely within the Anchorage consolidated city-county, and it includes the easternmost parts of the main Anchorage urban core, Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson (a combined U.S. Army fort and U.S. Air Force base), and the Eagle River community. Republicans would likely win here, as it would take very unusual circumstances for a Democrat to win.
Under the Hundred Thousand Rule, Republicans would get two or three ultra-safe districts, with the rest being either districts that are competitive for both major parties or districts that favor Republicans, but are not completely safe for them.