The framework for President Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran looks much better than anyone expected. It will prevent the Iranians from developing a nuclear bomb for at least 10-15 years and, if they start cheating, the world community will have at least one year of lead time to execute a new approach. All the alternatives, including scuttling the deal and implementing harsher sanctions, will simply spur Iran in its efforts to build a bomb and lead inexorably to war. The President explained his intentions effectively in an interview with Thomas Friedman last weekend, and he should be able to win this debate in the court of public opinion. It comes down to giving peace a chance before, diplomacy exhausted, we have to go to war. Who can argue against that?
Republican neocons, who else? Here’s how events will shake down.
Tennessee Senator Bob Corker’s legislation giving Congress the right to determine if and when sanctions against Iran will be lifted, essentially giving that body the power to derail the entire agreement, will pass the Senate and the House and become law. Enough Democrats will support it. After all, it’s difficult to vote against allowing the chamber you are serving in the authority to weigh in on foreign policy. Thanks largely to the efforts of Alexander Hamilton at the Constitutional Convention, our Founding Fathers determined the conduct of foreign policy should be a cooperative effort between the Executive and the Legislature. Checks and Balances… your Social Studies teacher covered that in seventh grade… unless you went to school in Atlanta and school officials thought it would be easier to just fix all the exams.
Alexander Hamilton: Rolling Over In His Grave
Today, you can forget all that nonsense about how treaties need to be approved by two-thirds of the Senate. The United States hardly makes treaties anymore. After World War II, presidents figured out how difficult it was to get the Senate to agree, and they increasingly resorted to Executive Agreements that could be implemented unilaterally. Senators have gone along with this because the number of international commitments the United States enters into has risen so dramatically there is simply no time… what with all the fundraising… for the full Senate or even a committee to weigh in on all of them. Besides, countries like Belize and Lichtenstein are difficult to find on a map and highly unlikely to impact a reelection campaign.
But Congress can and does weigh in on Executive Agreements when its members think an issue is important enough, and now GOP conservatives sniff an opportunity to derail what could turn out to be President Obama’s signature foreign policy achievement. Sadly, our politics have devolved to the point where Republicans care more about injuring a Democratic President than preventing a war.
Expect congressional Republicans to demand the right to cast a binding up or down majority vote on the final agreement. The President will claim he welcomes a non binding vote but a binding one is illegal. Both sides will dig in and the issue heads to the Supreme Court. Laughing maniacally, Justice Anthony Kennedy challenges the American people to “try and guess which way I am leaning.” Next, sensing a Republican Senate majority ready to vote down the agreement, a united Democratic caucus makes it impossible for the Republicans to find the sixty votes needed to authorize a vote on the floor. Senator McConnell decides the Corker legislation mandates congressional action and… “just this once”… abrogates the right of opponents to filibuster. Democrats object but McConnell reminds everyone that, “God put me on this earth to destroy Obama.” Then, tea partiers demanding a vote in the House storm Speaker Boehner’s office and chain him to a radiator. Senator Ted Cruz says he’s not involved but just “happened to be in the area.” The President and a majority of Democrats claim it all doesn’t matter, the agreement has already gone into effect. The Republicans claim it is not in effect. A constitutional crisis…
Next, Brian Williams returns to NBC Nightly News and claims he’s just completed his own personal tour of underground Iranian nuclear facilities. Senator Robert Menendez switches from the Democrats to the Republicans on the advice of his lawyer who claims it will gain him sympathy with the jury. A national online referendum votes to replace Andrew Jackson on the twenty dollar bill with Sarah Palin. Indiana Governor Mike Pence holds a rally in Indianapolis and announces he’s running for president, unaware that he’s standing right in front of a gay bar that has a policy of not serving assholes.
PLEASE… SOMEONE WAKE ME FROM THIS NIGHTMARE!