Warning! Use of statistics and pie(and other charts) ahead!
Hillary PACman still eating them all
Last month in my
first odds diary I explained a little about how odds work, and why it's just all about percentages. I looked at Winning Party percentages and Gender of the Winner. This week we'll look at odds for the Presidential Election from June 2012 to May 2014, and from June 2014 to May 2015.
Once again, the data is no more than an informed guess, formulated to get rubes to waste their money.
More subjective musings under the orange dog hair fluff.
That's Fauve not orange!
Here is the chart from June 2012 to May 2014:
Only candidates that had odds that convert to over 5% chance of winning are shown.
Not surprisingly Hillary's chances grew as it became apparent that she would run, and the GOP clown car's best chances were all between 5 and 10%. The only one to get above 10% was Chris Christie when he won re-election. Paul Ryan was still a possibility at that time.
What's interesting about the June 2014 to May 2015 chart?
Well, this chart covers only 1 year and not 2 years like the first chart. Things were steady until November 14, when Scott Walker got re-elected and replaced Ryan. Jeb's chances (with the bookmakers) also started moving up towards a high of 20%.
What's most interesting is that their backing of Chris Christie fell off a ledge last month. He's now at 4,76%, tied with Rand Paul. Some bookies even have him at 2%.
Rubio and Walker are on the rise, and Bush is down a little with Christie struggling. It's getting harder to get people to believe that Christie can win and wager some money on him.
My predictions based on nothing special are:
Hillary will stay at or close to 50% until well into primary season. Why? So that the bookies can get as many as possible to bet on a Republican. With Hillary at 50%, they make money overbooking the GOP at 71%. The Dems are overbooked with Biden and Warren at 3% each, and the others even less.
Of course, if any of you out there want to bet on Bernie, the odds are 100 to 1, or just about 1%.