The aftermath of my birthday weekend...
Previous states, in publishing order: North Dakota, South Dakota, Alaska, Delaware, Maine, New Hampshire, Hawaii, Idaho, Nebraska, West Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah, Kansas, West Virginia, Mississippi, Iowa, Connecticut, Oklahoma, Oregon, Kentucky, South Carolina, Louisiana, Alabama, Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Maryland, Missouri, Tennessee, Arizona, Indiana, Massachusetts, Washington
I have two ways to do Virginia. Let's look at the gerrymander map first:
1st District (blue): Open. The western tip. Bristol, Wytheville, and Galax. 62.7% McCain. Safe R.
2d District (green): One or more of Bob Goodlatte (R-Roanoke), Morgan Griffith (R-Salem), and Robert Hurt (R-Chatham). Roanoke suburbs, plus Covington, Lexington, and Bedford. 62.3% McCain. Safe R no matter who gets the Republican nomination.
3d District (purple): Who knows? Blacksburg, Salem, Roanoke, Martinsville, Danville, and Clarksville. 52.3% Obama. Any Democrat can make this seat one to watch, but if an incumbent (Goodlatte/Griffith/Hurt) runs here, that incumbent should be considered the slight favorite. Tossup.
4th District (red): Open. Charlottesville, Emporia, Franklin, and some of the Richmond/Petersburg exurbs. 54.6% Obama. One possible candidate here could be former congressman Tom Perriello (D-Ivy). Lean D.
5th District (gold): Open. Lynchburg, Staunton, Harrisonburg, and Strasburg. 59.2% McCain. Safe R.
6th District (teal): Open. Winchester, Front Royal, and Culpeper. 54.5% McCain. Safe R.
7th District (dark gray): Open. Herndon, Sterling, Leesburg, and Warrenton. 53.5% Obama. Tossup/Tilt D.
8th District (slate blue): Barbara Comstock (R-McLean). McLean, Reston, and Centreville. 59.6% Obama. Comstock gets a very early retirement. Her 2014 challenger, John Foust (D-McLean), would be a cinch here. Safe D.
9th District (cyan): Gerry Connolly (D-Mantua). Falls Church, Annandale, Fairfax, Manassas, and Bull Run. 57.2% Obama. Safe D.
10th District (deep pink): Don Beyer (D-Alexandria). Arlington, Alexandria, and West Springfield. 68.1% Obama. Safe D.
11th District (chartreuse): Open. Southern Fairfax County and central Prince William County. No major cities here, but this is a 61.3% Obama district. 51.9% racial clusterfuck. Safe D.
12th District (cornflower blue): Rob Wittman (R-Montross). Dale City, Quantico, Fredericksburg, Fort Hill, and Williamsburg. 51.5% Obama. Wittman will not be happy with this new district, but he really has nowhere else to run. Tossup.
13th District (dark salmon): Dave "Not Eric Cantor" Brat (R-Glen Allen). Richmond's suburbs. 61.7% McCain. Safe R.
14th District (olive): Open. Richmond and a few suburbs. 72.1% Obama. 53.4% Black/Hispanic district. Safe D.
15th District (dark orange): Randy Forbes (R-Chesapeake). Petersburg, Hopewell, Suffolk, and Chesapeake. Yes, I know that Petersburg and Hopewell don't really belong in a Suffolk-Chesapeake district. Petersburg and Hopewell should have been attached to Richmond instead... but there are too many people in that area to make them into one district. With Petersburg and Hopewell here, we get a 53.8% Obama district in which Forbes may not survive. Tossup.
16th District (lime): Bobby Scott (D-Newport News). Newport News, Hampton, and parts of Portsmouth. 58.1% Obama. Safe D.
17th District (dark slate blue): Open. Portsmouth, Norfolk, northern Virginia Beach, and the Delmarva Peninsula. 61.4% Obama. Former congressman Glenn Nye (D-Norfolk) could get his seat back, if he wants it. Safe D.
18th District (yellow): Scott Rigell (R-Virginia Beach). Most of Virginia Beach and the eastern bits of Chesapeake. 50.1% Obama. Rigell may want to watch out for a primary challenge from Forbes, who may not want to run in the light-blue 15th. But whoever wins that bloody Republican primary would then have to worry about a strong Democratic challenger. Tossup.
20 Electoral Votes: Tossup/Tilt D, but slowly moving toward blue-state status.
My alternate map is pretty much the same as the gerrymander map, with the exception of the 2d and 3d Districts.
The 2d District now consists of Roanoke, Blacksburg, Covington, and Lexington. This district goes from Tossup to Lean R--51.7% McCain. Goodlatte and Griffith would fight it out here, while Hurt would get the 3d District (Bedford, Martinsville, Danville, and Clarksville--58% McCain) all to himself.
CUBE ROOT HOUSE (338 required for majority)
States counted: AK, AL, AR, AZ, CO, CT, DE, HI, IA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, ME, MN, MO, MS, MT, ND, NE, NH, NM, NV, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, TN, UT, VT, WA, WI, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: 98 (added VA-8, VA-9, VA-10, VA-11, VA-14, VA-16, VA-17)
Lean D: 54 (added VA-4, VA-7)
Tossup: 21 (added VA-3, VA-12, VA-15, VA-18)
Lean R: 7
Safe R: 111 (added VA-1, VA-2, VA-5, VA-6, VA-13)
Total: 152 D, 21 Toss, 118 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: 94 (added VA-8, VA-9, VA-10, VA-11, VA-14, VA-16, VA-17)
Lean D: 33 (added VA-4)
Tossup: 36 (added VA-7, VA-12, VA-15, VA-18)
Lean R: 11 (added VA-2)
Safe R: 117 (added VA-1, VA-3, VA-5, VA-6, VA-13)
Total: 127 D, 36 Toss, 128 R
CUBE ROOT ELECTORAL COLLEGE (390 required for presidency)
States counted: AK, AL, AR, AZ, CO, CT, DE, HI, IA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, ME, MN, MO, MS, MT, ND, NE, NH, NM, NV, OK, OR, RI, SC, SD, TN, UT, VA, VT, WA, WI, WV, WY
Best case scenario
Safe D: CT (10), DE (4), HI (5), MA (16), MD (15), ME (4), OR (10), RI (4), VT (3), WA (17) = 88
Lean D: IA (9), ME (1), MN (14), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7), NV (8), VA (20), WI (14) = 79
Tossup: CO (13), MO (15), NE (1) = 29
Lean R: AZ (16), IN (16), MT (4), SC (12) = 48
Safe R: AK (4), AL (12), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), KY (12), LA (12), MS (9), ND (4), NE (4), OK (10), SD (4), TN (16), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 125
Total: 167 D, 29 Toss, 173 R
Worst case scenario
Safe D: CT (10), DE (4), HI (5), MA (16), MD (15), ME (4), OR (10), RI (4), VT (3), WA (17) = 88
Lean D: ME (1), MN (14), NE (1), NH (5), NM (7), WI (14) = 42
Tossup: CO (13), IA (9), MO (15), NV (8), VA (20) = 65
Lean R: AZ (16), IN (16), MT (4), NE (1), SC (12) = 49
Safe R: AK (4), AL (12), AR (8), ID (5), KS (8), KY (12), LA (12), MS (9), ND (4), NE (4), OK (10), SD (4), TN (16), UT (8), WV (6), WY (3) = 125
Total: 130 D, 65 Toss, 174 R