Distressed by the all too obvious economic shortcomings of plans to seal the border against Mexicans desperate to be exploited by low wage employers, I took it in hand to make a shallow (very shallow) economic analysis of the border situation. The present plan to fence the border is astoundingly unfeasible financially, so I have developed a way to insure border security in a much cheaper way.
A Viable Economic Solution to Securing the Southern Border
(written during the Bush administration) (but still valid)
Distressed by the all too obvious economic shortcomings of plans to seal the border against Mexicans desperate to be exploited by low wage employers, I took it in hand to make a shallow (very shallow) economic analysis of the border situation. The present plan to fence the border is astoundingly unfeasible financially, so I have developed a way to insure border security in a much cheaper way.
The Bush Administration is desperate to demonstrate to its law and order constituency (read: rabid right wing) that it is serious about enforcing the law –that’s what all this is about – no one complains about Mexicans coming here to go to Nieman Marcus. The Administration knows that red meat to Republicans is the prospect of doing something punitive to someone. Anyone, but particularly people who can’t vote. Border Security is the answer. Beef up the border so that not a miserable raton can squeeze through. Never mind that the present system, which is like Kanute lashing the sea or throwing sugar cubes in the ocean in an effort to make it sweeter.
So here is here is what is proposed $1.9 B (billion) to build a fences. (Wait, make that $2.2 B. Wait make that $3.7 B… Wait… ) Wait because originally they said $1.9, then they upped it to $2.2, but wait, if we extrapolate the costs of the 14 mile fence in San Diego (cost $74 M and growing daily) it looks like $3.7B. Remember, John Kenneth Galbraith said the purpose of economic forecasting was to make astrology look good. And that was before he had met the Bush Administration budget forecasters. (See Donald Rumsfeld, next paragraph.)
Of course this is like trying to dam a river. Mexicans will flow over under around and through it. Tunnel, leapfrog – just come through saying they are on their way to Nieman Marcus. Like trying to dam the Yangtze with a beaver dam. And not only that, we know how to estimate costs from Bush Administration estimates. The Iraq war was according to Don Rumsfeld going to cost $50 B (Billion). Present admitted cost: $439 B. So fudge factor, multiply by 10. That won’t do it of course because they lie and obfuscate, but it’s good economic analytical practice to start with lies and add fudge factor.
For example they are saying that the fence should cost about $3.2 M per mile. $30 M is probably safe to use. That covers a multitude of sins, so say, 2000 miles of border times $30 M equals $600B (big ones).
The figures are obviously ridiculous. No amount of economic analysis, obfuscation or gobbledy gook can paper over such an economically unfeasible project. But it doesn’t really need to, because all this is just political posturing anyway. Which doesn’t solve the border problem and is not intended to. It is intended to solve the political problem of patriotic scoundrels trying to hang on to their Congressional seats.
The good news is there is a way to solve both the problem of border security and the problem of labor for farmers who need Mexicans (or some variant thereof) to pick fruit and harvest crops and do all those little things that Americans won’t do (like coming up with a sensible immigration policy).
What is this simple, elegant and economical solution?
Land mines. Land mines are so cheap that the whole problem can be solved for something like $222,000,000 . There are 10,580,000 yards of border. If we assume that probably 7 mines per yard will get the job done at a cost of $3 each the cost works out to about less than $222 million. Check that. $222 M versus a liquid shifting undependable $3.7 B. A screaming bargain. And, luckily our government has never signed the international convention against land mines. What prescience.
And, as an added bonus, since border guards will not be necessary, the border guards can be rented out to farmers to help harvest their crops. I am not suggesting that border guards should be forced to work at migrant labor rates. They would be rented to farmers at migrant rates, but they would actually be paid what they earn now and the difference would be subsidized by a government happy to have controlled the flow of illegal aliens.
Now, to be sporting, and in the American tradition of fair play, we should agree that any Mexican who manages to cross and survive the mine fields will be given a green card good for two years before he is sent back to his baked Tierra.
After we have solved this problem we should then turn our attention to the Northern border, where Canadians come and go with the relative freedom of elk herds migrating. This cannot be permitted to continue. Measures must be taken.
What is amazing about this little exercise we have just conducted is what a little common sense economic analysis can do to solve seemingly enormous financial and political problems. In all modesty I propose that we lay this mine field and call it the Ronald Reagan Welcome Mat. Good fences make good neighbors, as the great communicator himself used to say.