We see phone polls or internet surveys every day that show Trump leading Biden in the presidential race. Can't escape them really. Seems every pollster wants to jump on the bandwagon. I'm not a pollster. I generally don't put much faith into a profession that can get the answer they want simply by wording the poll questions differently and choosing the demographics of those that participate in the polls. As an example, remember that slew of late polling showing Trump beating Biden in 2020? Yeah, all fake. All sponsored by the republican party and skewed to a Trump victory. So to me phone polls and internet surveys are those things you don't trust to watch your children, walk your dog or show accurate public opinion.
But exit polling asks actual voters what they think after they have voted. We are not talking about schmucks here that say they are gonna vote. We are talking about those of us who actually voted. It's an example of commitment. I did vote and here's what I think kind of thing. A much more powerful message.
So I thought I'd take a look at the exit polling for Trump in a 2020 republican primary when he was running as the incumbent and a few 2024 primaries where he was running as the de facto republican incumbent. The data is all from CNN exit polling. I stuck with the basics of who we are more than what we think. Primarily because who we are more often than not dictates what we think. Here's what I found.
In 2020 NH primary Trump romped by taking an average of 87% of the vote from those 40 and older. In 2024 NH primary Trump got only 54% of that vote. Yeah, I can hear you guys yelling about the number of candidates in each of those primaries. There were 2 in 2020 and 5 in 2024, so Trump should get less of the vote. Okay, look at 2024 SC primary which had only 2 candidates. Trump got only 59% of those voters. Not much better is it. In short, Trump has lost about 30% of the voters in that age group. And that age group contains the majority of voters in most any election.
How about by Party ID? Surely Trump is more popular now than back in 2020. Nope. In NH 2020 Trump got 91% of republicans and 80% of independents. That dropped to 74% republican and 39% independents in NH 2024. Which closely follows the 70% republican and 34% independent he pulled out of the SC 2024 primary. He's pretty much lost 20% of the republicans and 40 to 45 percent of the independents between 2020 and 2024.
How does he do with those of us that ID as moderates? NH 2020 he got 71% of the moderate vote. NH 2024 he got 22% and SC 2024 he got 25%. He's lost just short of 50% of moderates.
Rulings against abortion from a SC that Trump put 3 judges on have not helped him with votes from women. In 2020 NH he got 80% of that vote. In 2024 NH he got 51% and 2024 SC he got 57%. Looks like nearly 30% of women voters have abandoned him.
Finally, lets look how we voted by where we live; Rural, Urban, and those folks unable to decide....Suburban. in NH 2020 Trump got percentages of 87, 88, and 85 respectively. In 2024 NH he got percentages of 57, 43, and 55. And in SC 2024 he got percentages of 64, 42, and 61. Resulting in a 20 to 30 percent loss of votes in each area between 2020 and 2024.
Sure, A lot of those voting against him will come back when it becomes a Trump/Biden race. But some percentage won't. And when you are losing 30 to 50 percent of your voters, even a small amount of those who don't return to the fold can equal millions of lost votes.
So, keep publishing your internet surveys and phone polls. I'll take the word of actual voters. And right now that word does not look good for Trump. Not at all.