While dates can vary depending on the source, the millennial generation is roughly everyone born between 1978-1993 (or currently 31 years old at the top end). And there's no doubt that this generation is overwhelmingly Democratic. The 18-29 cohort went for Obama by a dominant 66-32 percentage in 2008. And Gallup polling (which calls the Millennials "Generation Y" and puts them in the 18-29 category) indicates that these younger voters are dramatically more Democratic than older generations:
Now there's a stupid little saying in the conservative world that "if you're a Republican in your youth, you have no heart, if you're a Democrat when you're older, you have no brain". It's supposed to glibly explain away the more liberal leanings of younger adults. However, Reagan won 61 percent of the youth vote in 1984, and even Bush Sr. won it in 1988.
So Republicans have been able to win the youth vote, they just aren't doing it anymore. And those Gen Xers who voted Republican in the 80s remain to this day the strongest identifying GOP block (see chart above). Getting voters young pays dividends to the party that captures them.
The children of the baby boomers, Generation X, were thus born into a world of increasing cynicism about government, and they grew up during the Ronald Reagan and George Bush Senior administrations, when government was under systematic assault and social ills were blamed on a failed welfare state. Their depressed outlook was further fueled by a multitude of griefs -- from rising divorce rates to the economic recession to the crack epidemic to the AIDS explosion -- that made the world a dangerous place. In 1984 and 1988, as Generation X came of voting age, only 40.8 percent and 36.2 percent of people under 25 voted in those respective presidential elections. And this generation remains the most disaffected -- and conservative -- in the electorate.
Today's youngest voters, Generation Y, were raised during the heady 1990s, a time of seemingly endless dot-com possibilities, as well as social projects such as AmeriCorps that were championed by the nation's political leadership. Volunteer programs blossomed and flourished on college and high-school campuses.
Michael Hais and Morley Winograd, authors of the seminal work on this generation,Millennial Makeover, describe Millennials as "characterized by optimism, ability to achieve, and strong group orientation."
Cusp Millennials are less likely than their elders to believe that special interests get their way in government, that politicians don't care about ordinary people, and that politicians are more concerned with their party than the good of the whole country. Similar to other Millennials, a majority of Cusp Millennials (50%) agrees that it's unfair that some have so much while others have so little.
That last sentence can be summed up as "empathy". And as the most group-oriented of the current generations, it's clear that it also is the most empathetic. That feeling manifests itself in tolerance toward "alternate" groups and lifestyles, whether its racial, ethnic, national, or sexual orientation. The internet has broken down geographic barriers and they're used to interacting with a global network of people with dramatically different lifestyles than what's available in their immediate surroundings. Where once a suburban or rural kid would be mostly influenced by those immediately around him, technology allows the youth of today to build truly global networks.
Hence, the GOP is hopelessly out of touch with this generation. Its hostility toward the "alternate" -- whether race, ethnicity, sexual orientation, nationality or whatnot, makes them look mean spirited and out of touch. Their overt anger at the notion of a global community, such as the "citizen of the world" thing that Reagan once championed but is now the subject of Newt Gingrich's ire, seems anachronistic to kids used to directly interacting with people all over the world. And while these youngsters are group-minded and embrace empathy as a tool of government, the GOP's close-minded rejection of such approaches is a genuine turn off.
Look at our recent Sotomayor polling:
Do you think empathy is an important characteristic for a Supreme Court Justice to possess or not?
Yes No
18-29 63 17
30-44 47 34
45-59 55 26
60+ 46 35
This tracks closely the polling on party ID -- Gen Xers, raised in the era of Reagan and Bush Sr., are more selfish and represent the strongest pro-GOP cohort, almost matching the oldest "get off my lawn!" generation. Boomers are supportive of empathy in government, but look at the Millennials -- they're in an entirely different world, fully demanding the Supreme Court use empathy in its decision making process.
And therein lies the GOP's biggest problem with young voters. Same question as above:
Do you think empathy is an important characteristic for a Supreme Court Justice to possess or not?
Yes No
Dem 73 12
GOP 18 56
Ind 54 28
How can the GOP win votes among young voters, when it rejects a value ("empathy") prized so much by those Millennials? It obviously can't. As long as the GOP is a selfish party predicated on individual rather than collective success, it will be at odds with the fastest growing demographic in the nation.
Throw in the GOP's problems with women and ethnic and racial minorities (stemming, pretty much, from that same lack of empathy), and you have a party that can't win national elections without radical restructuring.