I could probably not be called a big fan of Jesse Helms, having driven all the way across the country in 1990 to volunteer for his Democratic opponent Harvey Gantt in the North Carolina U.S. senatorial race that year. The infamous "hands ad", with white hands crumpling a paper because "racial quotas" gave the job to someone else, I saw on a TV in North Carolina during that campaign: and it was unpleasant, believe me.
    And he was not an especially gallant opponent, unlike, say, William F. Buckley, Jr.; although I have joked before that a Jesse Jackson/Jesse Helms ticket would be the ultimate in balance and diversity, Helms' bigotry in racial and sexual orientation matters, among other things, does not cut a very fine record. We know this.

    Still, he didn't have horns. He adopted a lonely child with cerebral palsy. He worked with Bono on international debt relief, and after meeting Bono apologized for his meanness about AIDS.

It is difficult to feel good this 4th of July given the mess the Bush/McCain Republicans have led this nation into. This year alone 438,000 people who lost their jobs. We are well into the Bush's SECOND recession (first president ever to preside over two recessions) with almost no recovery between them. We are officially in a bear market. Food prices are rising worldwide. Oil is at record highs suggesting Americans will have a very, very tough winter. The deficit is WAY above where it has ever been before and no end in sight. And I am not even going into the inept, idiotic and completely useless Bush/McCain Iraq war.

I don't like the conclusion of this Charlotte Observer analysis but it appears to have good logic.   I'm posting it because it shows what needs to be worked on before November if Obama, Kay Hagan (Senate), Harry Taylor (House) and Larry Kissell (House) are going to win.

I have possible action items to counter the analysis at the end of the diary.

Over at BlueNC (hat tip to The Southern Dem), we've been having a real hoot over Robin Hayes (R-NC08)' claim three years ago this week that Saddam was in cahoots with al-Qaeda on 9/11.

When Hayes was told the 9/11 commission found no evidence that Saddam was at all involved, Hayes responded in typical BushBot fashion:

Told no investigation had ever found evidence to link Saddam and 9/11, Hayes responded, "I'm sorry, but you must have looked in the wrong places."

Hayes, the vice chairman of the House subcommittee on terrorism, said legislators have access to evidence others do not.

Think we're kidding?  Crooks and Liars has video (digg it up).

(cross-posted at BlueNC)

Public Policy Polling confirms what we already knew--North Carolina is in play presidentially.  However, news from the Senate race here isn't quite as encouraging.

On the presidential side, McCain only leads Obama 45-41--just one point over the margin of error.  Barr gets 5 percent.  Note, this is a Democratic polling firm--but as with the last poll from NC, from a Republican polling firm, there's virtually no good news for McCain.

On the Senate side, however, Liddy Dole appears to be pulling away from Kay Hagan.  She now leads 51 percent to 38 percent ... and the trends suggest Hagan's got some work to do.

Link to Poll

Barr drains away 5 points from McCain in NC, bringing McCain's lead down to 45-41 over Obama.

This is now a state that McCain really has to worry about.

What do the relative ground operations for the candidates look like there?  I have to imagine Obama's is better than McCain's.

"Bitter" North Carolina rednecks who are tired of corporate capitulation and politicians that bow to the mean voter "theory," the intelligent design to real electoral political theory.

How does Obama get off as being progressive while John Edwards and Jim Webb do not?  Like so many problems in this country, they are endemic to every part of this country.  All the while, Democrats from the South are conflated with "Southern Democrats," and the South remains the scapegoat caricature for racism, economic darwinism, and any other form of parochialism.  

I'm damn bitter that Democrats fell for the smoke and mirrors of the Obama campaign because of a speech in 2002.  When Jim Webb does the same thing, but capitulates on telcom immunity (which I'm none too thrilled over), "progressives" stick a fork in him.  Edwards runs the most progressive campaign in at least 28 years (and in all of my time), and explicitly admits his errors from 2002 (something Obama-bot Kerry still won't do), and we stuck a fork in him.

Strange week. Saw my first McCain ad this week...and it is clear he is running as a Democrat. Healthcare, alternative energy, environment...all Democratic talking points. We have gone from Democrats feeling like they have to run as Repub-Lite to Republicans trying to hide behind a Democratic facade. You even have a Republican running for Senate in Oregon trying to claim (falsely) that Obama supports him. This is desperation for the Republicans! It sounds like racist attacks have failed them, though I am sure they will try more as time goes on.

Meanwhile yet more polls show Obama ahead in Virginia and Missouri, tied in Florida, AHEAD IN INDIANA (wow!) and within 1-2 points of McCain in North Carolina, Alaska and Georgia. Each and every one of these states was solid Bush in 2004. Now they are either leaning Obama or effectively tied.

There's a long-standing debate in Democratic Party circles about how to win over "swing states."

One view -- which usually comes from moderates and conservatives, like those in the once-influential Democratic Leadership Council -- argues the trick is to move to the political center to lure wavering Soccer Moms and Reagan Democrats.

The other side, coming from the party's more liberal/left wing, believes the winning formula is to hold firm on a solidly progressive agenda, and mobilize more voters who embrace that agenda -- like young voters and African-Americans.

The Chicago Tribune today gives ammunition to the progressives, showing that even modest gains in youth and African-American voter turnout could turn nine swing states Democratic in 2008 -- including three in the South:

I sure hope McCain isn't paying his staff much money cause man do they stink at their job.  Granted they have a tough job of making McCain look young, hip, smart, energetic, enthusiastic, smart, oops said that one already...

This camp can’t go a single day without falling on their face, flip-flopping on an issue, or just saying something so stupid it hurts to read.

cross posted on my site OurHispanicVoices.com

The Associated Press is reporting a new milestone in the ever-growing disparity between the wealthiest and the weariest as described in John Edward's mission to bring the "Two America's" together for a sustainable, strong future. For the first time in history, the planet is now home to 10 million millionaires, with the fastest growing segment of the newly rich emerging in places like India, China and Brazil. It's no accident those just happen to be the places that American millionaires, like George Bush, Dick Cheney and my opponent Robin Hayes, sent the jobs of the shrinking American middle class in their globalized race to the bottom.

Millionaires account for less than one-fifth of one percent of the world's 6.7 billion people, yet the supperrich, with at least $30 million in assets (Robin Hayes has more than that just invested in defense firms making money off the Iraq War), are getting richer even faster off the Bush-Hayes economic policies of the last near decade while the entire world suffers global crises of poverty, energy, health, food and environmental insecurity.

Daniel Johnson, the Democratic challenger to Patrick McHenry of North Carolina's 10th district, just sent out an email announcing the birth of his daughter.

Daniel and Creecy Johnson joyfully announce the birth of their daughter, Emily Bowen Johnson.  Bowen was born on Saturday, June 21 at 2:30am, 8lbs 3 ounces and 21 inches long.  Everyone is happy and healthy.

I was half way through writing a diary on key/close down-ticket races-- and how helping knock off some unpopular Republican governors can actually help Obam upticket--when I came across this happy fact:

Charlie Cook and the folks at the Cook Political Report have changed their ratings on 10 different House races. A Republican is the incumbent in all of them. Guess which direction they're heading:

CA-04 — OPEN (Doolittle) — Solid Republican to Likely Republican
CO-04 — Marilyn Musgrave — Lean Republican to Toss Up
CT-04 — Chris Shays — Lean Republican to Toss Up
IL-10 — Mark Kirk — Lean Republican to Toss Up
NM-02 — OPEN (Pearce) — Likely Republican to Lean Republican
NY-29 — Randy Kuhl — Lean Republican to Toss Up
NC-08 — Robin Hayes — Lean Republican to Toss Up
OH-01 — Steve Chabot — Lean Republican to Toss Up
VA-02 — Thelma Drake — Likely Republican to Lean Republican
WA-08 — Dave Reichert — Lean Republican to Toss Up

well they say hope for a landside, prepare for a squeaker.   more...

With 35 Senate seats being contested this year (33 plus 2 special elections), Democrats have only 4 female candidates: Jeanne Shaheen (NH), Kay Hagan (NC), Vivian Figures (AL) and incumbent Sen. Mary Landrieu (LA). That's a shamefully low number. The Republicans only have 2 incumbents, Elizabeth Dole (NC) and Susan Collins (ME), and one sole challenger, Christine O'Donnell (DE).

Overall, this is not a great year for women in the U.S. Senate. The overall outcome will be somewhere between minus 2 and plus 4 female Senators. The most likely outcome is somewhere between minus 1 and plus 1.

So, let's look ahead to 2010. Specifically, to which Democratic female politicians might or should run for the U.S. Senate in 2010.

The floods in the Midwest have continued and I include some information where I can in the Illinois, Iowa and Wisconsin sections. Best of luck to all readers in the hard hit areas.

This week I return to an issue I discussed before: Republican cronies litterally killing our troops with no government oversight. This week Democratic Sentor Bob Casey is demanding an investigation of the electrocutions due to bad wiring that have been plaguing our military bases managed by a Hallibruton subsidiary. More below.

Pat McCrory, the Repub candidate for governor of North Carolina, has been the mayor of my hometown, Charlotte, for 13 years.  He's been able to pull it off in an increasingly blue city because he's a moderate Republican by North Carolina standards--and in part because the Democrats haven't put up a real fight in a mayoral race in recent memory despite a huge advantage in registration.  

So you'd think that he'd want to stay away from the most unpopular president in recent memory, right?  Wrong.

A fundraiser today for Republican gubernatorial nominee Pat McCrory is set to feature a big name and a small profile.
President Bush is scheduled to visit the North Carolina capital to help raise money for the Charlotte mayor's statewide campaign. But the event -- at a private home and closed to the media -- is not designed to draw attention.

The most recent poll is out for North Carolina’s 8th Congressional District race and it shows Larry Kissell leading Robin Hayes in a pure unadulterated head-to-head match up.  The poll, conducted by Anzalone Liszt, shows Kissell at 45% and Hayes at 43%.

Tel Opinion Research (R). 6/11-13. Registered voters. MoE 4% (5/14-17 results)

Not much movement in the last month, with changes essentially float in the MoE. This state is neck and neck, with the Pollster.com composite at McCain 44.6, Obama 41.4.

And the crosstabs look ominous for McCain:

Obama still has some ground to make up with Democrats. But the African American and white numbers are particularly dangerous for McCain.

The sample weighing of this poll is 79 percent white, 18 percent black. But in 2004, African Americans were 26 percent of the NC voter turnout. And does anyone doubt that Obama isn't going to improve on those numbers here and other states with large African American populations?

That's not all, in 2004, the gender split among NC voters was 59 female, 41 male. Yet in this poll, it's 55 female, 45 male.

In other words, the sampling is skewed in a way that gives McCain a huge boost. Not surprising given that the pollster is a GOP outfit. Someone else can do the math and re-weigh this poll in a way that would match 2004 numbers, to see how the toplines would change. But this is fine. The fact that Obama trails within the MoE in a poll heavily weighed against his strongest demographics -- all the while showing him gaining the support of only 63 percent of Democrats is stunning.

Update: From the comments, reweighing these results by 2004 black/white turnout means: