Arizona: Monmouth- Trump 46 Clinton 45....(AZ-Sen) McCain 50 Kirkpatrick 40

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Tuesday October 25, 2016 · 10:15 AM PDT

2016/10/25 · 10:15

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_AZ_102516/

Looking pretty bad for Trump. McCain basically only being up by 10 is closer than usual for him in a general election too.

BREAKING: Arizona

DJT 46
HRC 45#AZSen
McCain 50
Kirkpatrick 40
(McCain has never won by less than 20 pts)https://t.co/KJ9oxxcNhy
— MonmouthPoll (@MonmouthPoll) October 25, 2016

pistolSO

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Tuesday October 25, 2016 · 9:48 AM PDT

2016/10/25 · 09:48

Today is Day 4 of Nevada’s early voting, and the first 3 days have been great for Democratic turnout. Turnout is proportional to 2012’s turnout(meaning turnout is basically the same as 2012). Clark County and Washoe County continue to bank Democratic votes.

Democrats added 5,000 votes to their lead in Clark County on Monday. It's now more than 23,500 raw votes. Statewide: 22K. On par with 2012.
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) October 25, 2016

Dems won early voting for third straight day in swing county Washoe by substantial margin. pic.twitter.com/q3wxuqvPH5
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) October 25, 2016

And today brought no-good, terrible, horrible, devastating news for Joe Heck. The notoriously Republican-leaning garbage pollster the House of Ras has Catherine Cortez Masto ahead. Looks like Nevada is saying Heck NO!

Before someone else tweets it: If Rasmussen shows her ahead....#WeMatter https://t.co/l2KLVvQoPy
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) October 25, 2016

Hillary Clinton campaign spokesman says that Democrats have narrow lead in Arizona early vote

pistolSO

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Monday October 24, 2016 · 12:25 PM PDT

2016/10/24 · 12:25

The other news from Jesse Ferguson is pretty exciting too, but at this point in 2012, the Republicans had a 20,000 vote advantage.

#VotersAreVoting

AZ: More than 300K voters have voted and Ds lead GOP by 1K in whose voted. At this point in 2012, Ds trailed GOP by 20K.
— Jesse Ferguson (@JesseFFerguson) October 24, 2016

Any Democratic lead is something I’d take, especially in Arizona, which could really tip to Clinton, which would be the first time Arizona has gone blue in a Presidential election in 20 years, when Hillary’s husband won the state narrowly in the 1996 presidential election.

This is certainly encouraging for the downballot races in Arizona, and of course “good news for John McCain” (HA!)

Poll

41 votes Show Results

Good News for John McCain?

41 votes Vote Now!

Good News for John McCain?

Did you even have to ask? All news is good news for John McCain

20 votes

Yes. Big League!

3 votes

Maybe

1 vote

Hell has frozen, and there is bad news for McCain

14 votes

Pie

3 votes

Day 2 of Nevada early voting shows Democrats blowing out GOP over the weekend

pistolSO

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Monday October 24, 2016 · 9:28 AM PDT

2016/10/24 · 09:28

Jon Ralston is saying this weekend in early voting was a Democratic blowout:

Dems have 21,000-vote advantage in urban Nevada after blowout weekend. My early voting blog updated: https://t.co/1pS7nvPBhm
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) October 24, 2016

A roundup of what happened yesterday:

KTNV:

Bottom line: After two days, the raw vote lead in urban Nevada for the Democrats is close to 21,000. (Most rural counties closed on Sundays, and those numbers, while they favor Republicans, are tiny in comparison.)

Clark County numbers for Sunday are again disastrous for Republicans, with another record day for turnout:

Total: 31,000
D: 16,000
R: 9,119

That's 52 percent to 29 percent. Dems are 9 points above registration, Rs are at registration. That's also slightly above the 2012 second day, which was 50-33.

Two day Clark totals, with mail ballots counted so far (no mail on Sunday):

Total: 84,468

D: 43,672 (52 percent)

R: 25,022 (30 percent)

Actual registration: 43-29, so Democrats are 9 points above their registration and Republicans are 1 above theirs.

That's an 18,000-plus raw vote lead. It was 13,000 in 2012. But there are 150,000 more voters this cycle, so it's slightly better proportionally.

It's a very blue wave so far, and Republicans have to be worried, especially with those Washoe numbers below and how deep the first day went down the ballot.

More details later....

Democrats also hold a 2200 vote advantage in Washoe County.

And these numbers are very bad for Republicans:

Early vote only
88,331 statewide
46,062 Dem (52%)
26,240 Rep (29%)

Total votes cast (includes absentees)
111,061 statewide
55,001 Dem (50%)

35,516 Rep (32%)

I’ll update as Jon Ralston posts information throughout the day, but it is looking like Democratic GOTV is working hard in Nevada, and that is great news for Team Blue and bad news for Team Red.

pistolSO

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Sunday October 23, 2016 · 9:10 AM PDT

2016/10/23 · 09:10

The most knowledgeable source of all things Nevada politics, Jon Ralston says that Clark County has similar percentages to 2012. He also notes that Washoe County has more Democratic turnout that it did in 2012.

The numbers in Clark County are remarkably similar to first day of 2012. Washoe even bigger for Dems than 2012. Almost 13K lead in urban NV.
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) October 23, 2016

Huge day for Dems on first day in Washoe:
2012: 1,000 raw-vote difference, 10-point D edge
2016: 1,800 raw-vote difference, 19-point D edge
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) October 23, 2016

Clark and Washoe account for about 85% of Nevada’s population, and those two counties were all that Obama needed to win Nevada in 2012 by about 6 ½ points. Obviously, these are just tea leaves, but right now I would rather be the Nevada Democrats than the Nevada Republicans when it appears that turnout in early voting is more than it was in 2012, and the Democrats appear to have a larger edge than in 2012. Hopefully Clark and Washoe counties continue this encouraging trend, and that this translates to downballot Democratic wins(looking at you, Nevada Senate, Nevada 3rd & 4th).

pistolSO

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Saturday October 22, 2016 · 10:27 AM PDT

2016/10/22 · 10:27

So much for Obama being an unpopular President, eh GOP?

Gallup Daily

I’d say that President Obama has already proved that he is more “big league” than Donald Trump will ever be.

Politico says Blanche Lincoln, Karen Ross, and John Hickenlooper top contenders for AG secretary.

pistolSO

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Saturday October 22, 2016 · 8:59 AM PDT

2016/10/22 · 08:59

Since it is basically fait accompli that Hillary Rodham Clinton will become the 45th President of the United States on January 20, 2017, it’s no surprise that we are already seeing a sneak peek at one of the Cabinet posts that President Clinton will have to fill(note: please vote to make sure this actually happens. I will be early voting this Monday in Massachusetts for the most qualified candidate in at least half a century).

Politico has a list of people being considered for Secretary of Agriculture.

A former Arkansas senator, a leading local food champion and a beermaker turned governor are among the top contenders to be the next U.S. Secretary of Agriculture should Hillary Clinton win on Nov. 8, POLITICO has learned.

There are five names at the top of an evolving list that the transition is mulling for agriculture secretary — one of the lower-profile Cabinet posts despite its crucial role in the food supply. The list includes Blanche Lincoln, a former Arkansas senator; Kathleen Merrigan, the former deputy secretary of agriculture; John Hickenlooper, the current governor of Colorado; Karen Ross, the current agriculture secretary of California; and Steve Beshear, the former governor of Kentucky.

I think the Blue Dog former Arkansas senator will probably be the one that gets this, but the article does make a case for any of those top 5 contenders. I’ll discuss my impressions of them(and paraphrase what Politico says about them below the story break.

Poll

48 votes Show Results

Your choice for Secretary of Agriculture?

48 votes Vote Now!

Your choice for Secretary of Agriculture?

Karen Ross

12 votes

Blanche Lincoln

7 votes

Kathleen Merrigan

18 votes

John Hickenlooper

2 votes

Steve Beshear

3 votes

Peter Shumlin

1 vote

Other(please write-in with comment below)

3 votes

Pie

2 votes

IN-Sen: Liveblog of 1st debate between Evan Bayh(D)/Todd Young(R)/Lucy Brenton(L)

pistolSO

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Tuesday October 18, 2016 · 3:51 PM PDT

2016/10/18 · 15:51

For tonight’s debate, Novu.com has the following info:

Tonight, Republican Todd Young, Democrat Evan Bayh and Libertarian Lucy Brenton will debate as part of the race to replace Sen. Dan Coates.

The debate will begin at 7 p.m. and can be live-streamed via the Indiana Debate Commission's website and WISHTV.com; watched on live TV on CSPAN-2, WFYI and WTHR; or listened to on WFYI and WIBC. Other affiliates around the state will also broadcast the debate.

CSPAN2 will also be covering the debate live, which is how I’ll be watching it. Bayh is experienced conservadem, but would certainly be a vote for Hillary Clinton’s Supreme Court nominee.

pistolSO

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Saturday October 15, 2016 · 7:07 AM PDT

2016/10/15 · 07:07

From Engadget,

Today, more than 170 nations have settled on a plan to cut the use of hydrofluorocarbons (or HFCs), a refrigerant that causes warming in the Earth's atmosphere. Called the Kigali Amendment for the location of negotiations in Rwanda, it's the result of seven years of work to expand the Montreal Protocol reached in 1987. That deal phased out the use of ozone-depleting chemicals, and by adding to it, this agreement carries its legally binding weight as a treaty, without needing to wait for ratification like last year's Paris Agreement.

The New York Times notes that the Kigali Amendment was partially helped by President Obama’s making the effort to amend the Montreal Protocol(which was ratified by Congress during the Reagan Administration) a top White House priority to further the President’s goal of tackling climate change in a meaningful way. It also helps that he doesn’t need to take this through Congress.

The Natural Resources Defense Council says that the Kigali Amendment will avoid “nearly 90 percent of the tempature increases that HFCs would have caused” which scientists have estimated to have been a global temperature increase of 0.5 degrees centigrade. The NRDC also estimates that this would “avoid the equivalent of more than 80 billion tons of CO2 over the next 35 years.”

Developed countries would make their first HFC cuts by 2019, which the EU & the US have already started. China, Brazil & more than 100 other developing countries have committed to freeze HFC production by 2024. India, the Gulf States & Pakistan would freeze their HFC production by 2038.

I have my doubts that cable networks will give this piece of really good news for the planet the kind of coverage it deserves, but this really is a Big Fucking Deal as Joe Biden would say. It would seem that this could be the future of important climate agreements: narrow, techocratic, and avoid the mess of having to ratify through the Senate given the supermajority requirements that any new international treaty would have to pass to have the binding force of law.

Poll

25 votes Show Results

Do you think this is a BFD?

25 votes Vote Now!

Do you think this is a BFD?

Yes, it is a BFD

20 votes

No, but it's important

4 votes

Pie

1 vote

Senator Marco Rubio(R-FL) enrolls in ACA, uses subsidy.

pistolSO

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Wednesday December 11, 2013 · 2:54 PM PST

2013/12/11 · 14:54

The Tampa Bay Times is on the story as Marco Rubio becomes yet another ACA enrollee. Rubio used the D.C exchange and was able to use a federal subsidy which gave Rubio a 75% discount. Because you know, he could use that savings to buy a lot of water.

No doubt, Rubio must have had a great experience signing up for Obamacare. And let's also remember that any condition that causes extreme thirst like he saw Rubio have at his State of the Union rebuttal is covered under Obamacare and Rubio's policy could never be cancelled because of that.

The Tampa Bay Times also notes that Rubio may have even found a better deal had his home state Florida allowed an exchange.

Rawstory: Police raid Lamar Alexander chief of staff's home as part of child porn investigation

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Wednesday December 11, 2013 · 10:32 AM PST

2013/12/11 · 10:32

Looks like Lamar Alexander(R-TN) already dicey chances of reelection may have just gone to plaid. Rawstory among others have picked up that Alexander's chief of staff who has served in that capacity since 2012 had his home searched by police as part of an ongoing investigation of child pornography.

Alexander had a statement too

“I was just informed by the United States Senate legal counsel’s office that law enforcement agents are conducting a search of the personal residence of Ryan Loskarn, the chief of staff of my Washington, D.C., office regarding allegations involving child pornography,” the Republican senator said in a statement.
“I am stunned, surprised and disappointed by what I have learned.”

Alexander said he immediately placed Loskarn on administrative leave without pay.

Alexander already has a Tea Party primary opponent, and GOP primaries are rough things.

So CBS, when you are going to FIRE Lara Logan?

pistolSO

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Wednesday December 04, 2013 · 2:56 PM PST

2013/12/04 · 14:56

First of all, MSNBC forcing Martin Bashir to "resign" is complete and utter horseshit. Yes, he never should have made those comments about noted troll Sarah Palin, who ought to have a disclaimer that her comments are intended to sell books or make her money.

But since Lara Logan, who LIED to the American people by promoting a Benghazi story that she should have known to be utterly false and committed one of the cardinal sins against journalism has not been fired yet, I am even more angry. What Logan did was far worse than Bashir.

Logan should not even have the dignity of resigning, she should be very publicly fired by CBS if they give a damn about ever seeing seen as having a shred of integrity.

So clock is ticking, CBS: when are you going to make sure that Lara Logan can only go to Fox News as she has zero credibility as a journalist anymore?

Poll

128 votes Show Results

What will be Logan's fate?

128 votes Vote Now!

What will be Logan's fate?

Fired from CBS, never works as a journalist again

7 votes

Resigns from CBS, gets job at Fox News

29 votes

stays at CBS because Obama.

24 votes

CBS weathers the storm until Logan goes to Fox News on her own

60 votes

Pie

8 votes

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Arizona: Monmouth- Trump 46 Clinton 45....(AZ-Sen) McCain 50 Kirkpatrick 40

Day 3 of early voting in Nevada: Trumpendämmerung

Hillary Clinton campaign spokesman says that Democrats have narrow lead in Arizona early vote

Day 2 of Nevada early voting shows Democrats blowing out GOP over the weekend

Day 1 of Nevada early voting looks good for Clinton.

Gallup has Obama with a 57% approval rating

Politico says Blanche Lincoln, Karen Ross, and John Hickenlooper top contenders for AG secretary.

IN-Sen: Liveblog of 1st debate between Evan Bayh(D)/Todd Young(R)/Lucy Brenton(L)

Kigali Amendment to Montreal Protocol is another Obama BFD

Senator Marco Rubio(R-FL) enrolls in ACA, uses subsidy.

Rawstory: Police raid Lamar Alexander chief of staff's home as part of child porn investigation

So CBS, when you are going to FIRE Lara Logan?