First of all, let me start off by saying that I have absolutely no confidence at this point that Bush will be defeated in November. I believe that this administration is so power hungry and Machiavellian that it will take a complete miracle to pull out a victory. I think we will all be
stunned at the level this campaign will sink to in the months to come.
Nevertheless, there appears to be a bright light on the horizon. While the latest polls continue to show Bush and Kerry neck and neck in the national race, it has become clear that in the so-called battle ground states, Kerry is pulling ahead.
Daniel Sachs is a political commentator and maintains his own site
DC's Polical Report. Although I believe he is a committed Democrat, he has shown himself to be very impartial when predicting the outcome of presidential, congressional and gubernatorial races. Although he did not have a perfect record in 2002, his projections were more accurate than any other website I monitored.
So why am I pumping up DC's Polical Report? Because I trust his analysis and lately his analysis shows that John Kerry is beginning to prevail at the electoral college level.
Sachs shows that
Bush is solid in: AL, AK, CO, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MT, NE, NC ,ND ,OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA AND WY
For a total of 190 Electoral Votes to Bush
Kerry is solid in: CA, CT, DC, DE, HI, IL, IA, MD, MA, MI, MN, NJ, NY, OR, PA, RI, VT AND WA
For a total of 241 Electoral Votes to Kerry (Note: We are way ahead here)
He considers the following states a tossup:
AR, AZ, FL, ME, MO, NH, NM, NV, OH, WV, WI
For a total of 107 Electoral Votes
What is significant about these numbers is that of the 107 Electoral Votes that are up for grabs, 88, or 82% of them are from states that Bush won in 2000. What this means is that Kerry only needs to win 29 electoral votes in all of the swing states to eke out a victory in November. Given the current polls that show Kerry with a 5%+ advantage in the battleground states, it would appear we do have a reason to be optimistic.
Let me finish off this diary by pointing out that I was stunned in the 2002 election. Since then, I have been very pessimistic about our chances to oust Bush. However, it is looking better and better for us each day. If we can put states like Virginia, Louisiana and North Carolina in play, we may be asking ourselves how Kerry will govern with a mandate. But I will always remember the sage advice from earlier this spring, "no matter how much it seems we are ahead, we must persevere as if we are 10 points behind".
Godspeed.