I responded to this thread yesterday on the LeftCoaster
http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/004550.php#more and I've been thinking about it ever since. The question is: should we stay the course, provide a Democratic plan for "success" or just get out of town? It's an agonizingly difficult decision since we've been left no options that could be considered better than poor. However one feels on the topic, though, I think it's important to try to put the question in context, something the CCM (Complicit Corporate Media) are supposed to help with. I'm no Juan Cole,
http://www.juancole.com/ but I'll try my best to provide a quick sketch. Like most Americans, I cannot possibly understand the complexities of the roughly, 150 tribes, the complex web of numerous religious sects and political divisions at work in Iraq. Nor can I intelligently discuss the effects of intermarriages, or the business and political interests that motivate individuals to behave the way they do.
More below
Iraq was created by a fading, venal British Empire with the intention of creating a compliant client state. They arranged for it to be ruled by Lawrence of Arabia's ally, Faisal I in 1921. In 1925, it's oil reserves were divvied up between Britain, France, the Netherlands and the US. 5% to went to Calouste Gulbenkian, one of the founders of Shell Oil. None went to the Iraqi government.
Throughout its history, http://www.factmonster.com/ce6/world/A0858896.html , http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Iraq minority factions have attempted to secede and been violently subdued. Iraq has long had troubles with its neighbor Iran. In the early seventies, they clashed all along their borders. The Iranians first supported, then abandoned the Kurdish uprising in 1975, one of many betrayals of the Kurds. In 1980, of course, they fought a ruinous 8-year war with Iran. At that time, despite claiming Iraqi authority over Kuwait, Saddam was good buddies with the Reagan gang, including the well known military genius, Rummy. Once again, the Kurds tried to fight Baghdad and were ruthlessly crushed and gassed.
In July, 1990, given, to put it charitably, ambiguous messages from Ambassador April Glaspie, Saddam thought he could finally claim Kuwait and was surprised at the results. Poppy Bush exhorted the Shiites in the south and the Kurds in the north to "rise up" and overthrow the dictator. He didn't help them in any substantial way, however, and tens of thousands of rebels were slaughtered, which led to the US-British initiated no fly zones and to crushing UN-authorized, sanctions, which seriously degraded the standard of living of ordinary Iraqis. The Kurds flourished under this protection, except for a 4-year civil war fought in the mid-nineties, and got a real taste of autonomy. The Shiite Marsh Arabs literally, found their world destroyed by a vengeful Saddam and many migrated to the cities, where they continued to be oppressed. The Iranian supported Badr Brigade, now the strength of the SCIRI faction, continued to raid from Iraq at this time. http://www.sciri.btinternet.co.uk/English/About_Us/Badr/badr.html. Then, of course, the American Enterprise Institute and PNAC invaded Iraq, apparently to make the world safe for Israel and, oh yeah, freedom.
So now here we are, 1700 American and anywhere from 25,000 to over 1000,000 Iraqi dead. Who's counting? In addition, well over 12,000 Americans have been wounded, thousands gut-wrenchingly. How many newly blind, deaf, irreparably faceless and limbless soldiers have paid for their war? We've hemorrhaged over $200 BILLION so far and there is literally no end in sight. I don't have to go into the cost to our military. It's been covered thoroughly elsewhere. We quite simply, cannot afford to continue doing what we're doing.
Let's do the numbers. The US has, at most, 70,000 fighting troops in Iraq. Many of them are in their second or even third deployment in a combat zone in three and a half years. Oh, and did I mention that our 18,000 troops in Afghanistan are beginning to see the same insurgent tactics demonstrated, and learned, in Iraq and used by the Taliban "remnants"?
The Kurds are perhaps the largest ethnic group in the world that doesn't have some kind of national identity. Probably the greatest consequence of our administration's Bolton-like diplomacy in the build up to the war was the lack of a Northern front. Of curse, the Kurds violently opposed it, but the original plan was to have at least 10,000 Turkish troops in the coalition of the purchased friends. The fact that the US was barred from an invasion route through Kurdistan meant that the Pesh Merga (those who face death) became essential allies who worked with US special forces quite effectively. There at least 80,000 of these battle tested troops, about equally divided into two separate armies supporting either the KDP or the PUK
For what it's worth, http://www.dozame.org/article.php/2005053102450027 the Kurdish People's Defense force, HPG, reports that, from July, 2004 to the present, they have engaged in 184 clashes with Turkish troops, out of 287 Turkish military operations in Kurdistan, resulting in 718 Turkish casualties, with 49 military vehicles destroyed. They claim 96 losses, due to new and improved guerilla tactics. There are about 4,000 Turkish, Kurdistan Workers Party insurgents hiding in the hills of northern Iraq. For some odd reason, the Turks want them destroyed. The Turkish Prime Minister vowed to invade Kurdistan if they even thought of declaring independence. The Kurds think they can repel any such invasion. On Feb. 2, an informal poll in southern Kurdistan indicated 98.7% in favor of full independence. Additionally, the Kurds are very determined to include Kirkuk in their sphere of influence. It also happens to produce 40% of Iraq's oil. To make it more interesting, there are about equal numbers of Kurds, Turkmen and ethnic Arab Iraqis, who were imported by Saddam to dilute Kurdish influence. Many of the houses they have occupied for the past 15-20 years were originally owned by displaced Kurds, who are trying to get them back.
The Shia make up roughly 60% of the population in Iraq. They have been sometimes brutally oppressed by the Sunnis. They are by no means unified. The most widely respected Grand Ayatollah is Ali al Sistani. It's probably his influence which has kept the Shiite's eyes on the prize of political control. Early in the occupation, with a word, he put many tens of thousands of Shia in the street to force Bush to accede to elections. It's probably also his moderating influence that, so far, has kept Shiite retaliation for the countless attacks against the Shiite mosques and clerics muted. The fact that he's Iranian make many people suspicious The "street" Shiite elements are attracted to Muqtada al Sadr. These tend to be poorer and less well educated people who don't trust anybody else. Muqtada has already employed thousands of these folks as a kind of proto-Taliban. They have largely been able to keep the peace on their own streets, but the women and intellectuals of Iraq find them generally obnoxious and dangerous. There many other factions and groups that few Americans can understand or predict. The March Arabs must certainly be considered bitter enemies of the mostly Sunni Ba'athists who so injured them and their very way of life.
The Sunnis have, basically, since living memory been the overseers of other ethnic and religious groups. They tend, as a group, to be more highly educated, wealthy and sophisticated. They are also in deadly fear of Shiite dominance. Since much or their control has involved brutal suppression, with Republican style largesse for their friends and family at the expense of everyone else, their fears are probably justified. The majority of the ex-military, secret police and professional class are Sunni. The insurgency has certainly demonstrated that these people are quite capable and organized. Insurgent forces have been estimated to number up to 40,000 fighters and supporters.
Then there are the Americans. Since the invasion became an ill-conceived occupation, the appalling lack of preparation has made most Iraqis heartily sick of their presence. Many non-Sunni Iraqis were indeed glad to welcome them, in the beginning. However, that was then. Bob Hebert had an interesting editorial on the problem. http://www.commondreams.org/views05/0502-25.htm Uncounted thousands of civilian deaths since the occupation and countless incidents where innocent civilians were torn from their homes and families, thrown to the ground with, literally, American boots on their necks, http://electroniciraq.net/news/1984.shtml and horrendous crimes committed by some American troops in detention hell-holes, have made the occupation anathema to almost all Iraqis. Iraqi crowds are now as likely to throw stones at US troops as they are roses. http://www.tampatribune.com/News/MGB3TW6HO8E.html Some Iraqis may want them to stay out of fear of even worse atrocities if they leave, but I sincerely doubt that many Iraqis can contemplate the long term presence of American without nausea or rage.
So how do we fix it? I don't know. 80 Americans and at least 740 Iraqis have been killed since the new "government" took power late April, and with the ongoing operations sparking more attacks each day, it doesn't look like there is an end in sight. Keep in mind, the vast majority of the Iraqi security forces are either Shia or Kurdish battling against a primarily Sunni resistance (for now). One thing I do know for a certainty, we won't be fixing anything as long as we have the same MORONIC FUCKWITS running operations that screwed thing up in the first place.
There is a very necessary discussion going on about whether Democrats should offer a plan for Iraq. I would dearly love to see one. There is also the probability that any plan offered would be distorted and used as a club to beat progressives, liberals and Democrats liberally about the head and groin. Frankly, I don't care what the DC Democrats say about this any more. Far too many of them cluelessly enabled this incredible clusterfuck and they bear great responsibility. What is important is, what do WE the PEOPLE think should be done with our "war on terrorism". The insurgents have tried several times to assassinate al Sistani. What do you think our role should be if 250,000 angry and vengeful Shiites take to the streets and begin slaughtering Sunnis. The trebly-betrayed Kurds have freedom and power now. If things keep going south, how long will it be before they just declare themselves out of it and begin fighting with a desperate Turkish military. On a personal level, I feel the Kurds deserve to have their homeland. Unfortunately, however, it would probably result in a tragic ethnic cleansing of ethnic Arabs and a brutal war with Turkey. Turkey itself could erupt in civil war under such circumstances. What will Rummy's Department of War do then? I have no way of calling a battle between the Shiites and the Sunnis. I only know there would be no winners. And then there's the question of Iran. The House of Saud is terrified of a Shiite crescent dominated by an unchallenged Iran. Would Jordan even survive the waves of sectarian violence and refugees sure to result from an Iraqi breakdown. Of primary importance to neoclowns, what would happen to all that oil?
I have no answers, only terrible questions. The main question for us all has to be, CAN we "fix" the mess we made. Sadly, I don't see how. THEY have thrust America's hand deeply into a hornet's nest. THEY have learned to their dismay that the hornets are not grateful to be disturbed. One viable definition of insanity is to keep repeating the same behavior and expecting different results. So far, this Iraqi adventure has been run by escapees from the asylum for the criminally arrogant. Perhaps it would be insane to keep trying to stay that course. The consequences of withdrawl are likely to be terrible, but then so is the current situation. US soldiers have already killed tens of thousand of Iraqis. Some of them were guilty of whatever, but many are innocent of any significant crime. American soldiers Hate their situation and many of them have come to Hate Iraqis. The lunatics running operations seem to have an arrogant distrust of the few people who do know something about the region and the Iraqi players they like, ex-CIA tool Alawi, the astonishingly successful weasel and thief Chalabi and all his cousins are despised by many of the Iraqi people.
I think the time has come to be selfish. For the sake of OUR nation, we should set a strict timetable of less than a year and begin to get our troops out, for their sake. Not one more billion should be spent on permanent bases for outposts of the neocon dream of a Holy Rollin' New American Empire. To those who would say, but the world would lose all respect for us, I have to say the last of that herd of horses bolted in 2004 when we supinely allowed flawed elections to continue the same Asswipes to hold power in our country. If anybody has a plan to get us out of this mess, please, let's hear it. This is a discussion we need to have.