When the fighting bgan in Gaza over the capture/kidnapping of an Isaeli soldier, I was taken aback by the Israeli response. The shelling and invasion/incursion into Gaza was clearly far greater than the kidnapping warranted. Then, when a prisoner exchange was rejected by Israel, even there had been past exchanges with Hezbollah, which is not even a country, that struck an odd note, especially in view of the fact that Israel had recently recognized the Israeli-Gaza border as an international border.
Then Hezbollah gets into the act and invades Israel and kidnaps two soldiers. Instead of an incursion into Southern Lebanon, and an attack on the Hezbollah strongholds at the border, Israel attacks Beirut. In each case, conduct by Arabic groups that has happened in the past was met with a far more forceful response, and over a far greater geographic area than in the past. Additionally, Israel claims that Syria and Iran are involved, and bomb roads and airports as though they are cutting enemy supply lines.
The capture/kidnapping of three soldiers is proportionaltely so much less an outrage than the suicide bombings of tens of civilians, yet the Israeli response was far greater than the response to the suicide bombings. In addition, the shelling of the beach in Gaza was weird and purposeless.
Here we are 3 months before an election in the United States that does not bode well at present for the continued control of both houses of Congress by the Bushies. Iraq is going badly. It is clearly in the interest of those presently in power in Israel to keep Bush and his Congressional allies in power.
The world, having been bitten once by the Bush lies about the situation in Iraq, has been twice shy of Bush's claims about Iran. Our military says that they cannot confirm any of Bush's claims, and cannot locate the sites of any nuclear development in Iran.
The chain of events in the Mediterranean Middle East, as odd as they are, now give Bush and his government a basis for claiming that Iran is attacking Israel by proxy. Another war, lasting long enough to raise the fear level in the USA so that the Rovian campaign can gain more traction is just what the RNC ordered.
If this seems farfetched, it is, except that again we have a set of behaviors by major players that do not make contexutal sense unless there are motives and agreement that are not apparent.