The dust has settled in the Pennsylvania primary election. Debra Todd and Seamus McCaffery are now the Democratic nominees for two open State Supreme Court positions. Act 1, part of Governor Rendell’s plan for property tax relief, faced a resounding defeat, everywhere in the state. And, in my home county of York, Pennsylvania, Doug Hoke and Ned Grove, in a surprising upset, defeated incumbent Doug Kilgore in the Democratic primary for County Commissioner.
The Democratic results in the County Commissioner race were close. This closeness illustrates how, at the local level, the saying "let every vote count" – one that we mostly hear repeated in contested federal races – can become all the more important.
The results in the County Commissioner’s race were unexpected to me. Commissioner Doug Kilgore was an incumbent, and, as an incumbent, I expected him to have an easier time winning re-nomination on the Democratic ballot.
He had no such luck. Perhaps I might have seen the closeness of Tuesday’s Democratic primary coming if I had spent more time following County level news.
For the past four years, the use of eminent domain has become an increasingly controversial issue in York. This controversy involves efforts by York County to seize Lauxmont Farms, a property of an environmentally and historically sensitive nature, in order to preserve it by turning it into a park. Doug Kilgore, the lone Democrat on the three person County Commission, as well as Lori Mitrick, one of the two Republicans, voted in favor of using eminent domain. The owners of Lauxmont have bitterly, and vocally, opposed the county’s actions.
Since then, anti-eminent domain civic groups in York County have formed to oppose what they claim is an "abuse" of the power by York County. The response by supporters of the project is that preserving the property is important for future generations, especially as it is the last remaining undeveloped land that was once used by a Susquahannock Native American tribe. If left in private hands, said land was to be used for condos. Nevertheless, the anti-eminent domain groups have continued to hold a strong voice in York County politics, and have gained traction with many residents who fear that their own properties might be "in danger."
Commissioner Kilgore continued to defend county use of eminent domain, even as he ran for re-election in the Democratic primary. The two other Democratic candidates, Ned Grove and Doug Hoke, spoke out loudly and clearly against "eminent domain abuse." Eminent domain (as well as "cutting county spending") was a major issue with Grove. Hoke, while showing more of a willingness to discuss a broader range of issues, was also not afraid to make an issue out of York County’s current eminent domain policies.
In the final weeks of the campaign, Hoke sunk an impressive amount of money into sending out direct mailers to Democratic voters. Each one of Hoke’s mailers mentioned eminent domain, with one devoted to that issue entirely. The eminent domain focused mailer featured, on the front, a picture of a farm, surrounded by yellow tape that said, "SEIZED BY AUTHORITY OF THE YORK COUNTY GOVERNMENT." On the back, the mailer emphasized how Hoke "believes in York County values, and knows our current county government’s priorities are just wrong." In bold letters, the mailer stated that Hoke will "make ending eminent domain abuse a top priority."
Speaking to that issue seems to have worked. Hoke and Grove, as the two anti-eminent domain Democratic candidates, ended up doing surprisingly well, while Kilgore, the "pro" eminent domain incumbent, went down in defeat. Meanwhile, on the Republican side, Commissioner Lori Mitrick, the "pro" eminent domain Republican, was defeated for re-nomination herself. Out of the seven Republicans and three Democrats seeking nomination for the board of commissioners, only Kilgore and Mitrick favored the county’s park project.
From a York Daily Record article, entitled "County’s voters to park planners: Take a Hike":
Most of the candidates insisted during the campaign that eminent domain was not the main issue. But it clearly struck a chord with the public. Letters on the issue, both pro and con, have been staples of the York Daily Record/Sunday News' editorial page since the issue first arose.
Mitrick believes that issue was responsible for her loss, calling it "largely a single-issue campaign." Still, she said, she did what she thought was right and doesn't regret it.
Meanwhile, on the Democratic side:
Hoke said he believes that Lauxmont Farms was also a big issue in the race, although he thinks that rising taxes was part of the problem as well. He bases that assertion on conversations he had throughout the county during his campaign, which he believes is what ultimately won the contest for him.
"I think I ran a very effective campaign," Hoke said. "I really listened to the people. A lot of people just thought the priorities of our government for the past 3½ or four years weren't right."
The results of Tuesday’s primary have real meaning. Because all of the major party candidates will now be opposed to the County’s park project, the issues that will be discussed during the general election – and the framing of those issues – will be significantly impacted. Elections do have consequences. Even primary elections at the local level.
What’s just as amazing, though – and just as important to take into consideration – is how close the Democratic race really was, and how a few extra votes could have potentially shifted the outcome, and, by extension, the nature of the race this fall.
The results for the York County Democratic primary for County Commissioner are as follows:
Doug Hoke: 10,018 votes (38.49%)
Ned Grove: 7,915 votes (30.41%)
Doug Kilgore: 7,746 votes (29.76 %)
There was a less than 1% margin between Doug Kilgore and Ned Grove. 169 more votes for Commissioner Kilgore would have resulted in him winning the second spot on the Democratic ticket. The impact on York County politics would have been substantial, as it would have meant a general election with at least one candidate who would be willing to defend York County’s use of eminent domain. Democratic turnout, meanwhile, was only 18.77% - meaning that only roughly 20% of Democrats got to decide who the Democratic general election nominees would be, in a primary that could easily have turned out differently had more people voted.
Whatever your views on York County’s use of eminent domain, you have to admit that the closeness of the race, and the fact that a few extra votes could have shifted the outcome, are enough to give one pause.
When Democratic activists talk about the importance of "every vote counting," it’s not just a slogan. A handful of votes can legitimately change an outcome in any race. Losing those votes – whether to "buggy" voting machines, or an inability to get Democrats to come out to vote – can have a real impact on how an election turns out.
This is all the more true at the local level, where turnout is almost always low, and races can easily turn into "nail biters." And, the more local the politics, the closer the races, and the greater the likelihood that "GOTV" changes from an expensive mailing and calling operation, to simply getting your friends and family members to come out and cast their ballots for local candidates.
To illustrate this point, let’s look at the York County Commissioner results for Heidelberg Township, where I reside and vote. Heidelberg is small enough that it has only a single voting precinct. In that precinct, Kilgore, Grove, and Hoke did as follows:
Doug Hoke: 73 votes
Doug Kilgore: 41 votes
Ned Grove: 40 votes
In Heidelberg, Kilgore managed to beat out Grove by only a single vote. I voted for Kilgore and Hoke myself, as did my father, who probably only came out to vote because I did. Had we both stayed home, Kilgore’s results in Heidelberg would have been 39, as opposed to Grove’s 40.
Granted, Heidelberg Township does not decide the Commissioner’s primary for the entire County. However, imagine if, instead of a countywide race, we had been dealing with a race for a Heidelberg Township position. Simply by coming out to vote, my Dad and I could have swung the election. And, that would have meant a different candidate for the general election, with a different style, and different issues.
As I have said before, local elected officials are important, because they determine local level policies that are the most likely to touch your life. However, in order to have quality local government, you must first have quality local officials. And that means making sure you vote for them. Especially when one or two votes can make a difference.
That lesson holds as true for a general election as it does a primary. Local level general elections face nearly as much apathy as local level primaries, and, as a result, hold plenty of room for changed outcomes, if only a very small number of additional voters turn out.
I know this not because it is a lesson I learned this year, but because is a lesson I learned in 2005, during the general election. Heidelberg Township really did have a contested race. It was for Township Supervisor, between Democrat Harry Rodgers, and Republican Paul Hilbert. Heidelberg is very Republican in registration, which favored Hilbert. But, Rodgers has many ties to the area, and many people willing to support him because they know him personally, which helped to make the election unusually competitive.
In the days before the election, I worked on getting my parents to come out to vote with me. My Dad agreed. My Mom, however, dislikes voting in local races, and decided not to. She felt that Rodgers would almost certainly win, due to how well known he and his family are in Heidelberg.
On the day of the 2005 general election, the Township Supervisor race turned out as follows:
Harry Rodgers (Dem): 166 votes
Paul Hilbert (Rep): 165 votes
By turning out to vote myself – and, by convincing my father to vote – I was able to make a difference, and win an election for a Democrat. No massive amounts of money, nor any robo calling were involved. It was the most grassroots form of GOTV.
At the local level, every vote really does count. Which is all the more reason to make sure you vote for local Democrats, in local races this year.