These are not my words and not my numbers. These were fresh from the CNN news studio.
The details of the poll's criteria go like this:
Nearly six out of ten Americans believe another economic depression is likely, according to a poll released Monday.
The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll, which surveyed more than 1,000 Americans over the weekend, cited common measures of the economic pain of the 1930s:
25% unemployment rate
Widespread bank failures
Millions of Americans homeless and unable to feed their families
http://money.cnn.com/...
This was stunning to me. Americans were already rightfully worried about the now obvious recession which has been going on for almost a year now.
Already, the private sector has lost 973,000 jobs (beginning in December 2007 and ending in September 2008). The unemployment rate, even the bare-bones headline version reported at 6.1%, has risen sharply. Despite the "halt" in unemployment in September (largely the result of more Americans leaving the labor force after having trouble finding work), the U-6 measurement of unemployment, which includes the unemployed plus discouraged workers and other underemployed Americans, rose sharply to 11%. New jobless claims flirted with 500,000 two weeks in a row, some coming on the heels of the massive Wall Street collapse in September.
Either way, whatever you call this, the pain has been spread far and wide. It's also apparent that the credit freeze-up is a serious warning of dysfunction that has resonated the financial system. Whether or not the Earth moving $700 billion bailout will resolve this remains to be seen, but so far, judging by the LIBOR, the treasuries, and even stocks, many are looking at this as a sign that there is massive pain yet to be felt.
I have a class at 2, so I should have some more on this later.
UPDATE:
Since I was gone, the Dow Jones Industrial dropped 700 points on the day. The price of oil, and other major commodities, seem to also be suggesting a very deflationary scenario in front of us. Oil has dropped 6.5% today alone., to just under $88. This is a pretty wild shift.