Selzer & Co. has released its poll for Indiana:
10/29. Likely voters. MoE 4% (9/17 numbers)
Obama 46 (47)
McCain 45 (44)
Selzer is rated by Nate over at 538 as one of the most reputable pollster's out there in terms of accuracy of their results. While this most recent poll of Indiana shows some marginal tightening over Selzer's last poll for Indiana in September, given the passage of time, the RNC having gone up on the air in Indiana since that last poll, and frankly the inevitable float within the margin of error polls take from one to the next, this is all very good news. Underscoring that fact is Obama's announced visit to Highland, Indiana, this Friday.
More about some interesting tid bits from the polls internals below the fold
Some demographic breakdowns: Among those under the age of 35, Obama leads McCain nearly two to one (61% to 35%). When the age is expanded to those under 45, the lead narrows to just 12 points. This suggests that Obama is having some trouble (a sore point reflected in R2K's internals) with individuals from what I call the Reagan cohort, meaning raised during the Reagan years. It is only natural given this demographic groups common background in this regard that they would be the most resistant to change or something new. Moving on, McCain leads among those over the age of 45, which is not that much of a surprise.
McCain's support of evangelicals is not as strong as one might expect even after the Palin VP pick. In the Selzer poll McCain's lead among evangelicals is only 57% to 33%.
But here is the true kicker and a very good sign for Senator Obama's chances in Indiana. In this poll he is only receiving the support from 82% of African Americans. If he can bump those numbers over ninety percent, and there is very good reason to believe this can be done, he will expand his lead in Indiana by another point or two. As Ann Selzer herself remarked in the news piece accompanying the poll's release: "This race is really in the hands of your African American community."
It is all going to come down to GOTV and in that regard here is another nugget in the news piece publishing the poll results: Early voting in Marion County (Indianapolis) through today was over 66,500 and is expected to top 80,000 at the end of early voting on November 3. Now compare that to where things were in Indiana in 2004. By the end of early voting back then only 27,430 people had voted early in Marion County.