The Lies That Could Sink Obama's Campaign!
This article appeared in Politico GOP Strategists Mull McCain ‘Blowout’ and Digby thinks "Republicans are so cute!" to think that. But, it could easily happen that despite everything, McCain actually wins by a large margin. If so, it will be the lies of an internet whispering campaign that has already gotten underway that will sink him.
The article quotes anonymous Republican pollsters who look at the state by state matchups and see a sizeable McCain victory. They point out that:
It sounds crazy at first. Amid dire reports about the toxic political environment for Republican candidates and the challenges facing John McCain, many top GOP strategists believe he can defeat Barack Obama — and by a margin exceeding President Bush’s Electoral College victory in 2004.
At first blush, McCain’s recent rough patch and the considerable financial disadvantage confronting him make such predictions seem absurd. Indeed, as Republicans experience their worst days since Watergate, those same GOP strategists are reticent to publicly tout the prospect of a sizable McCain victory for fear of looking foolish.
But the contours of the electoral map, combined with McCain’s unique strengths and the nature of Obama’s possible vulnerabilities, have led to a cautious and muted optimism that McCain could actually surpass Bush’s 35-electoral-vote victory in 2004. Though they expect he would finish far closer to Obama in the popular vote, the thinking is that he could win by as many 50 electoral votes. . . .
A top strategist with the Republican National Committee, who asked that his name be withheld to speak candidly, explained that by his own examination, "we’re actually sitting pretty well in most states."
"There are a lot of scenarios that look good for McCain, and I almost would go so far to say that there are a lot more scenarios [than for Obama]," the strategist added. "I don’t think anybody over here wants to let themselves get too excited about it. It is an eternity between now and November. But McCain looks a lot stronger than our prospects as a party."
. . . ."The broader environment clearly favors the Democrat," said Whit Ayers, another veteran GOP pollster. But Ayers argued that "a state-by-state analysis actually makes McCain a narrow favorite to win the Electoral College majority."
"That would certainly run against the grain of history, if he pulled that off," Ayers added. "But it’s also clearly plausible and a manageable outcome partly because of John McCain’s strength among independents and partly because of Obama’s weakness in culture, ideology and association."
CULTURE, ASSOCIATIONS, IDEOLOGY. WHAT DO THESE WORDS MEAN?
What on earth does that mean? Translation:
Right now there is an ignorant, racist internet campaign going on that is quietly shaping doubts about Obama's candidacy even before the real campaign has begun. And it's very subtle. It's visual cues. I get these e-mails from deluded friends and co-workers all the time.
"Did you hear Obama is a MUSLIM! I just don't trust that guy! And his preacher hates America! I think he's related to Osama Bin Laden! And did you know that he doesn't even wear a FLAG PIN? [Sent with a photo of Obama during a pledge of allegiance folding his hands while others place them over their hearts] How can he pretend to be a commander in chief if he won't salute the flag? He doesn't love America! And if he gets elected all the Blacks will be running things and be on welfare!"
I have actually heard every single one of these actual quotes about Obama! Not one of them was made up. I live in urban Denver Colorado, a state Obama may well win too. This isn't rural Georgia here. There is an ugly undercurrent of flat unstated racism and white anger going around here. I see it on the streets and it worries me a lot.
Could Obama Really Lose Badly Due To Ignorant Racist Stereotypes that Take Hold In the Popular Consciousness?
Don't kid yourself. He's within the margin of error v. McCain right now in the Gallup Poll, and McCain hasn't even started attacking him yet. All that garbage quoted above is via an internet whisper campaign that is very effectively starting doubts about whether Obama is an acceptable leader.
Not one person has commented on "why" Republican operatives are optimistic! It's certainly NOT delusional.
In fact, if the election were held today, Omama would NOT win 270 votes. He might get close, but he'd probably lose. That's reality.
McCain is re-inventing himself as the "change" candidate, and the entire media is there to say "yes, he always has been for change. He's a MAVERICK. And did we mention in the last 5 minutes what a WAR-HERO he is! He's so manly! Obama is just so [insert latest Republican oppo-research talking point]."
Thus, the Right Track - Wrong Track numbers don't mean a thing! McCain will have been for "the change you deserve" all along! See?
It might be total B.S., but the American people have always fallen for it before, haven't they? And this CULTURE (unstated fear of letting blacks have too much power) will make many whites WANT TO BELIEVE IT! If they have "doubts" about Obama, then believing McCain will be a "change" candidate makes perfect sense to give them an excuse to vote for the "safer" candidate.
Think this isn't a real danger? Look at the past 6 Presidential elections!
1980 -- "It's morning in America!" [Gee doesn't that feel great! Who cares if the President is an idiot former governor?]
1988 -- "Oooh! A flag burning amendment is the most important thing we can possibly be thinking about! And, did you see Dukakis riding in that tank? Didn't he look silly! Ha! Ha! Plus Willie Horton! He'll let all the criminals out of jail to rape your daughters!"
1992 - Clinton a miles better candidate only manages to win a narrow victory amid an economic recession due to the presence of Ross Perot.
2000 - "Al Gore is a LIAR! Didn't you hear his claim that he invented the internet? And he's a flip-flopper! Didn't you see that ad with him WIND-SURFING back and forth? You just can't trust him!" Forget that Bush is a demonstrated failure at every single job he's ever had. He's a COMPASSIONATE CONSERVATIVE! He got along with the Texas legislature! That proves he'll be an effective leader!"
2004 - John Kerry is a flip-flopper! He was for it before he was against it! Bush is a tough manly guy! The war in Iraq is going great! It's just a few 'dead-enders! Oh, and did you see those WOLVES ADS! Scary! Be Afraid! Be Very Afraid! The wolves will eat your children if you don't keep Bush in the White House!"
Quite frankly, this all leads me to think that Obama's real strength might well be less than what he's polling right now. That might not be true in the Democratic party, but among White Independents he will need to win key states like Ohio and Michigan, he's clearly in trouble.
We'll see how this plays out in the general campaign. But, right now given Bush's utter failure as President and the fact that McCain is running for a 3rd Bush term, why on earth is he within 20 points of Obama? Explain that one to me!